Intel's Pat Gelsinger (NSDQ:INTC) sees a "clear way" to manufacturing chips under 10 nanometers and when the semiconductor industry transitions to 450mm silicon wafers around 2012, the number of companies that run their own fabs will drop into the single digits.
Intel debuted its 45nm process late last year and has been ramping its Penryn line of 45nm processors steadily throughout this year. The next die shrink milestone will be the 32nm process, set to kick off next year, followed by 14nm a few years after that and then sub-10nm, if all goes according to plan.
Gelsinger described the elemental hoops Intel has had to jump through to achieve each "tick" milestone in the chip maker's relentless pursuit of Moore's Law, noting that while each new process adds materials used in novel ways, modern processors are still built on a "silicon scaffolding."
"We are putting more and more of the periodic table onto that silicon scaffolding. Today we use about half of the elements on the periodic table. When [Intel co-founder Robert] Noyce and Moore started, they used six elements," Gelsinger said.
"We replaced the gate with high-K, we put metal on top of it, but it's still, quote, silicon. [The process of getting smaller] keeps moving forward. It may be carbon nanotubes next or it may be spintronics. But we'll keep moving forward."
ULTIMATE LIMITS
Previously Intel has forecast moore's law to continue to at least 2029.
This site has covered the future of lithography
There is going to be substantial re-architecting with more photonics and other changes like the Tensilica processors.
The GPGPU, FPGA, custom tensilica processors and cell type processors seem like the way forward. Plus the new universal memories.
New molecular computing architectures could have an impact or a niche.
A successful and inexpensive 3D architecture needs to be perfected. Ultimate limits will not be seen until we have 3D, 10 nanometer or less optical systems and are pushing the limits of cooling the heat generated and energy to power the devices. The technologies that could be involved are plasmonics, excitons, spintronics, metamaterials, room temperature superconductors and better cooling systems. There will be re-architecting with reversible computing architecture and more efficient parallel computing architectures.
So a 10 centimeter cube would have 10 million multi-nanometer layers. One layer of computing would be about 10 million times more powerful than what we currently have. so the small fist size cube would be100 trillion to 1000 trillion times more powerful for personal computing. This means 100,000 to 1 million zettaflops (10*23 to 10**24). Plus each person could have a few cubic meters of computronium. For
several more thousand times more compute power.
Heading to 1-2 nanometer feature and component sizes would probably also be possible for another 1000 times boost (The previous insane amount of compute power ought to help find a way to squeeze out another 1000-1 million improvement) (10**27 to 10**30)
For non-heroic cooling limits: 10**24 to 10**26 bits per cm**2 (but we added the third dimension for 10 million to 100 million fold gains)
There will also be comparable levels of scale and density for quantum computers (10**23 to 10**32 qubits)
All the individual compute power will be networked together across the solar system. The connection speeds will also be pushing whatever physical limits there are.
FURTHER READING
Intel is researching applications for this compute power
30 page transcript from the IDF (Intel Developers Forum) spring 2008 keynote address by Pat Gelsinger
July 02, 2008
Intel's Gelsinger sees clear path to 10 nanometer lithography
June 30, 2008
Participated in a podcast on the Speculist about the Future of Fit and Fat
Shawn Phillips is an author, entrepreneur, and expert in the area of performance training and nutrition. He created the Full Strength® Premium Nutrition Shake, clinically proven to swap body fat for lean muscle. He is the author of ABSolution: The Practical Guide to Building Your Best Abs and has just released Strength for Life, published by Ballantine/Random House.
PJ Manney is a writer and futurist and a leading voice in the H+ movement. She has written extensively on transhumanism and related topics, as well as for television (Xena Warrior Princess and Hercules the Legendary Journeys) , and has a novel under development. PJ is the Chairman of the board of directors of the World Transhumanist Association, she's a senior associate at the Foresight Nanotech Institute, and she is on the scientific advisory board for the Lifeboat Foundation.
Brian L. Wang, M.B.A. is the Director of Research for the Lifeboat Foundation. Brian is a long time futurist who has been involved with nanotechnology associations since 1994. He is now a member of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) Task Force where he moderates the technology sub-task force. He is also on the Nanoethics Group Advisory Board. He is also the mastermind behind Next Big Future.
Check out the notes on the podcast and the podcast itself over at the Speculist.
June 26, 2008
New Oil production for the United States: Thunder Horse
The British Petroleum offshore oil rig Thunder Horse started production on June 14, 2008 This is US domestic oil in the gulf of Mexico. It will be producing 250,000 barrels of oil per day in 2009.
Thunder Horse page at BP.com
The new production is still not enough as the CIBC is predicting $200 per barrel of oil and $7 per gallon in the USA by 2010.
While Americans are already driving 11 billion fewer miles than they did last year, a decline of 4.3%, they still drive today about 30% more than they did before the OPEC oil shocks. The elasticity of driving to gasoline prices is estimated to be around the 0.06. That means a 10% rise in gasoline prices will eventually lead to a 0.6% reduction in miles driven. Using that rule of thumb, the 280% cumulative rise in gasoline prices between 2004 and our target $7 per gallon target price should induce more than 15% reduction in miles driven on American roads.
This would be predicted to apply a hit to the US economy.
At a minimum, once the worst of the housing shock passes, the Fed will be forced to raise real interest rates back to zero in order to prevent an improving economy from allowing wages and other prices to catch up to oil. With CPI trending at an energy- and food-driven 4%, that will entail 200 basis points in tightening to get to a 4% funds rate by the end of next year. As a result of our upward revised call for both oil and interest rates, we’ve chopped our US growth forecast for 2009 from just over 2% as of two months ago, to little over 1%, no better than this year’s housing-blunted performance. The US economy has managed to avoid feeling the full brunt of oil prices over the last few years, but 2009 will be the year that its luck runs out
Thunder Horse’s actual “production profile” hinges on “well performance” and “how fast we are able to drill and connect new wells,” BP spokesman Ronnie Chappell cautioned.
The Thunder Horse field is located in Mississippi Canyon Blocks 776, 777 and 778, in the Boarshead Basin, 125 miles south-east of New Orleans. It is the largest field in the Gulf of Mexico and lies at a water depth of 6,000ft. The field was discovered in 1999. BP operates the development (75% interest), with co-venturer ExxonMobil owning the balance. The reservoir consists of Upper Miocene turbidite sandstones 6,000m beneath the seabed in 1,900m of water. Pressures exceed 1,200bar and temperatures reach 135°C
Norway Alvheim; Volund; Vilje had first oil June 9, 2008 as well.
Marathon Oil believes the Alvheim; Volund; Vilje output will be at 75,000 bpd in early 2009
FURTHER READING
Other oil megaprojects for 2008
Russia's Yuzhno-Khylchuyuskoye "YK" for July 2008 start to get 150,000 bpd in 2009
Russia's Vankorskoye for October 2008 to get 420,000 bpd peaking in 2017
Brazil Marlim Sul Mod 2 P-51 for August 2008 to get 180,000 bpd
Brazil Marlim Leste P-53 for August 2008 to get 180,000 bpd
Brazil Marlim Leste (FPSO Cidade de Niteroi) Dec 2008 for 100,000 bpd
Canada's Horizon Oil Sands Project (Phase I) for Sept 2008 start to get 110,000 bpd
June 20, 2008
Updated China economic projection
China's GDP in 2007 was 24.66 trillion yuan ($3.38 trillion) and per capita GDP was $2,556, official figures suggest.
UPDATE of this May article:
China's currency is now 6.88 yuan to 1 USD. China's GDP is now $3.78 trillion.
Hong Kong's GDP is $409 billion in 2008
Including Hong Kong and Macau China has $4.2 trillion GDP.
China reports its own military spending at about 417.8 billion yuan. [US$60.7 billion] which would put China as the fourth largest spender after the USA, France and the UK
Rand has estimated China's spending to be 33% higher than reported amounts and DoD doubles the military spending. Either adjustment would put China as the second largest military spender but well behind the USA's military spending.
The Economist magazine noted that China's national economic figures have been inaccurate but that the provincial numbers which show 10% higher growth have historically been shown to be more correct.
Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, calculates that in 2007 the combined output of the provinces was 10% more than that reported by Beijing. Their average growth rate of 13.1% was also still 1.2 percentage points higher than the revised national growth rate, although the gap has narrowed from almost three points in 2005.
Updated projection for currency, US recession and China but not with the 10% higher provincial growth numbers and the new 2007 GDP number. If growth did average 1.2% faster and US growth was weaker then China could pass the USA on an exchange rated basis in 2014. My updated likely estimate is for 2015-2018 for China's economy to pass the USA economy. The most likely years are 2016-2017. The latest exchange rate is 6.94 [6.88 June 20, 2008] yuan to 1 USD. Key factors are the pace of change in the exchange rate, the degree to which China can maintain high growth and how fast the US economy grows. As previously noted at this site: China should maintain high growth until 2020 because of the migration of 1-2% of the population each year from rural areas to urban areas. Those people over a few years provide 4 times as much gdp per capita. This provides a boost of 3-6% to the annual growth rate.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP
2007 24.66 11.9% 7.3 3.38 3.7 13.8
Jun08 26.0 6.88 3.78 4.2 Past Germany
Oct08 26.7 6.65 4.0 4.45
2008 27.3 10.2% 6.35 4.3 4.8 14.0
2009 30.1 9.8% 5.62 5.4 5.9 14.2 Pass Japan
2010 33.7 9.5% 5.11 6.6 7.1 14.6
2011 37.0 9.5% 4.64 8.0 8.5 15.0
2012 40.6 9.5% 4.26 9.5 10.0 15.4
2013 44.2 9.0% 3.91 11.3 11.8 15.9
2014 48.2 9.0% 3.72 13.0 13.5 16.4
2015 52.0 8.0% 3.54 14.7 15.2 16.9
2016 56.2 8.0% 3.53 16.7 17.2 17.4 Passing USA
2017 60.4 7.5% 3.38 18.8 19.4 17.9 Past USA
2018 64.2 7.0% 3.20 20.9 21.5 18.4
2019 69.2 7.0% 3.09 23.0 23.6 19.0
2020 74.0 7.0% 3.0 25.2 25.8 19.6
2021 78.4 6.0% 2.9 27.2 27.8 20.2
2022 83.1 6.0% 2.9 29.4 30.0 20.8
2023 87.3 5.0% 2.8 31.5 32.2 21.4
2024 91.7 5.0% 2.8 33.7 34.4 22.0
2025 96.3 5.0% 2.7 36.1 36.8 22.7
2026 101.1 5.0% 2.6 38.7 39.4 23.4
2027 106.1 5.0% 2.6 41.4 42.1 24.1
2028 111.4 5.0% 2.5 44.4 45.1 24.8
2029 117.0 5.0% 2.5 47.5 48.2 25.5
2030 122.8 5.0% 2.4 50.9 51.6 26.3 Close to double USA
FURTHER READING
China's economy now third largest passing Germany.
Part of the reason for China's GDP growth, lower cost of infrastructure
China is planning to complete rebuilding from the recent earthquake within 3 years. This compares to longer timeframes for US rebuilding after the San Francisco earthquake (still working on the Bay bridge) and from Katrina. The replacement of the eastern span of the Bay Bridge appears like it will cost $6.3 billion and be completed in 2013. 24 years after the 1989 quake.
The rebuilding of damage from China's quake will cost a lot less than repairs in the USA. $10 billion has been set aside for repairs in China.
The new Olympic stadium (the bird nest) only cost $500 million and was completed in 52 months
China has already started demolition of unsafe structures and towns.
Beijing's new airport (the world’s largest and most advanced airport building)is larger than all five London terminals and cost an estimated $3.75 billion to construct, occupies 14 million square feet and was finished in four years. London Heathrow's Terminal 5 took nearly 20 years to build and cost at least twice as much as the one in the Chinese capital.
Chinese and Russian officials signed a $1 billion deal Friday to have Moscow build a nuclear fuel enrichment plant in China and supply uranium.
The deal calls for Russia to build a $500 million nuclear fuel enrichment plant and supply semi-enriched uranium worth at least $500 million. Earlier this year, a Russian company completed work on two 1,000-megawatt light-water reactors for China's Tianwan nuclear power plant south of Shanghai. China plans to build 40 plants by 2020, tripling the nuclear share of its power generation to 6 percent.
Westinghouse secured a $5.3 billion order from China National Nuclear in July to provide four AP1000 nuclear power reactors in Haiyang, Shandong Province and Sanmen, Zhejiang Province, both in eastern China. Four AP1000 in the USA for Florida Power and Light are contracted in 2008 for $13.7 billion, $2927/kw.
June 05, 2008
2016 Next Big Predictions
This site predicts that 2016 will be year of significant milestones for technology and other world changes. A prediction on a relatively trivial topic. Tokyo will hold the 2016 summer olympics. Three other cities are still in the running. 2016 will likely be the end of the second presidential term for the president elected in 2008. Most presidents are two term presidents.
2016 is a likely year when China's growing economy and strengthening currency combine to enable it to pass the size of the US economy. This is a milestone for change that has been evolving for decades, but will have ripened by passing a key metric.
Energy
Prediction by 2016: Over 100 new Conventional nuclear reactors will add over 120GW of nuclear power. 1000 billion kwh added (Some power from uprates of existing reactors in France, USA and other places)
Prediction by 2016: 100 GW of solar power will be added, but that will generate less power than the additional conventional nuclear power because of lower capacity factor
Advanced thermoelectronics will be providing energy savings on car air conditioning and electronics by 2010 and providing more efficient co-generation for cars and trucks by 2014 Thermoelectrics will also provide more efficient full size refrigerators (currently used in beer coolers)
Prediction: Durable [able to operate at higher temperatures] ZT 10+ thermoelectronics will be able to capture 35% of the waste heat of nuclear, coal and natural gas reactors. This will be deployed to capture over 50GW of power by the end of 2016.
There will also be deployment on freight trucks to increase fuel efficiency by over 10%.
2012 first completion of a uranium hydride mass producible nuclear reactor
Prediction by 2016: 200+ of the 25 MW electricity and 70 MW thermal reactors deployed. Total 5GW electrical and 14GW thermal power. Primarily used for oilsand and oilshale oil recovery.
The 335MW IRIS (International Reactor Innovative & Secure) will likely be first deployed in 2015 The first IRIS unit will take three years to construct with a subsequent reduction to only two years.
By 2016: 30GW of geothermal power added worldwide
Prediction: Inertial confinement fusion will be shown to achieve greater than breakeven energy by 2013. Deployments will be limited in 2016 due to the need to refine the systems for commercialization. Tri-alpha energy, Focus fusion and the General Fusion approaches will have successful prototypes or will have become dead ends.
Prediction: Over 1.5 million bopd from the US portion of the Bakken oilfield by 2016.
Prediction: Over 2 million bopd will be added to production in the oilsands.
Prediction: Biofuels will be over 60 billion gallons per year in 2016 [more than the UN prediction. Triple instead of double current production] The 60 billion gallans is equal to 4.5 million bopd. Algae oil production, conversion of waste into oil and cellulose biofuels will produce more.
Blacklight power and cold fusion recently had claims which if true could have substantial impact by 2016.
Computers, cars and medicine
Prediction: 100 petaflop computer by the end of 2016
Prediction: Over 20 million hybrid and electric cars worldwide by 2016.
A few thousand will be 175 mpge race cars like the one here.
Prediction: 80% fewer deaths from cancer.
Biomarkers and imaging for cheap and successful and widely deployed cancer testing.
GIFT cancer treatment
Prediction: By 2016 higher than room temperature superconductors will have been developed
Prediction: by 2016, the first effective longevity treatments will have been introduced to calorie restriction mimicking drugs
Prediction: By 2016 Myostatin inhibitors will be used by over 5 million people
FURTHER READING
Previous review of predictions on the future
Technologies and developments to watch for 2008
June 04, 2008
McCain and Obama may both choose female Vice Presidential running mates
Many women are very upset over Hillary Clinton losing the Democratic presidential nomination. In order to attract those woman voters both McCain and Obama will probably choose female vice presidential running mates.
A good case is made for Sarah Louise Heath Palin, the governor of Alaska as McCain's running mate
Ann Althouse indicates the problem that Obama will have not giving Hillary the Vice President slot
FURTHER READING
Sarah Louise Heath Palin at wikipedia
May 20, 2008
Some of T Boone Pickens oil predictions are wrong
T Boone Pickens has made various predictions about oil on MCNBC
"Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87 million," he said. "It's just that simple. It doesn't have anything to do with the value of the dollar."
target=blank>Pickens founded BP Capital and has a 46% interest in the company which runs two hedge funds, Capital Commodity and Capital Equity, both of which invest primarily in oil and natural gas.
Pickens is also investing in wind energy
Pickens says that world oil production will not exceed 85 million bpd. The EIA says that Feb 2008, the world production is at 85.921 million bpd. March and April had 300,000 bpd increase from Saudi Arabia and 42,000 bpd increases in Brazil.
The IEA statistics for total world oil production rose to 87.47 million b/d in February, up from 87.29 million b/d in January, the IEA said, thanks to higher volumes from the Americas and the former Soviet Union.
It would appear by end of 2008, Thunder Horse (Gulf of Mexico deepwater oil rig) will come online in 2008 and produce 250,000 bpd sometime in 2009. More additions in Saudi Arabia in July. More increases in Brazil up to 500,000-600,000 bpd more by end of 2008.
I predict that Pickens is wrong on the production peak.
I predict that the May, 2008 EIA numbers will be 86+ million bpd. (Not April because of the UK strike and other issues in April)
I predict that the Sept, 2008 EIA numbers will be 87+ million bpd.
On the Oilsands
Pickens claimed that the oilsand development would be hindered by a shortage of welders and personnel.
When asked about Canadian Oil sands, he said he had $500 million invested in this segment. He has been there ten years. I pointed out that he has probably made five times on his investment and he agreed. He owns Canadian Oil Sands (CNQ) and Suncor (SU). I then asked him if he was worried about the fact that the Canadian government is going to raise taxes. He said that governments always tax profitable businesses. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and SandRidge (SD) were two explorers that he mentioned.
Encana is projecting growth in their holdings in the Alberta oilsands from 35,000 barrels a day net to EnCana today to 100,000 next year (2009), to 200,000 by 2012 and to 400,000 barrels a day by 2016.
A third-quarter [2008] startup of the massive Horizon oilsands project will deliver 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first phase. Construction to increase capacity to 250,000 bpd is already underway.
Pickens forecasts $150 a barrel price for oil in 2008
"The only way I see that oil doesn't continue to rise [is] if we had a global recession." he said. "That will happen at some point, but I don't see the Chinese stumbling until after the Olympics."
Pickens says natural gas is the only American resource that can reduce oil imports. He claims the effective use of natural gas could reduce oil imports by 40 percent. [Wind and solar can free up natural gas to replace 40% of oil use in the US within 10 years.] He dismissed ethanol as an alternative.
Prices could rise that high because of a weak dollar, supply/demand imbalance, and any hickup in production (like the Nigerian unrest that is blocking 500,000 to 1 million bpd).
Using nuclear power, wind and solar to free up natural gas would be part of a reasonable energy plan.
May 11, 2008
Barack Obama a sure thing ?
Many in the media have been claiming that the race for the Democratic nomination is over. It likely may be, but it could be far closer than is currently believed. It could still turn the in favor of Hillary Clinton.
Realclearpolitics makes the scenario where Hillary makes the race far closer with wins in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.
Here is how the numbers could play out.
HOW LIKELY IS A DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT?
Many factors favor a democrat for president in 2008. Unpopular Republican president. Bad economy. Unpopular war.
Intrade 2008 US president prediction market has it 57% Obama, 38% McCain.
Detailed electoral vote projections have a very close race between Democrats and Republican.
This article points out how the Democrats often find a way to lose the presidential election.
The first Republican to win a presidential election was Abraham Lincoln. Since that initial success, the GOP has won 23 presidential elections compared to just 14 for the Democrats.
Since the Civil War only four Democrats -- Jimmy Carter, Lyndon Johnson, Franklin Roosevelt and Samuel Tilden -- have won a majority of the popular vote. (Tilden in 1876, lost the Electoral College vote and never became president.)
It has been 32 years since a Democrat won a majority of the popular vote. The last to do so was Carter, who won a whopping 50.1 percent of the votes in 1976. He defeated Republican incumbent Gerald Ford, the man who pardoned Richard Nixon and carried the burden of Watergate and the Vietnam War into the election.
Obviously, 1976 was not a good year to be a Republican. Nixon's disgraceful resignation and reputation for deceit and corruption fatally wounded the Republican presidential ticket. But even with such enormous advantages on his side, Carter barely eked out a majority. Carter's once sizeable lead in the polls dwindled as election day drew near, so much so that some observers believe that had the election taken place a couple of weeks later, Ford might have prevailed.
Another article making the case that the Democrat path to the presidency is not assured
What does seem certain is a Democratic House and Senate.
So a McCain presidency would have to work with a Democratic House and Senate, which would force more moderation from McCain to get things passed.
Obama and Clinton's stated policies are very similar. A question would be how effective Obama would be in getting real policy enacted.
I do not believe the US government (regardless of who wins) can be counted upon to start generating appropriate far sighted policy. Relatively neutral and non-damaging policy would be the hope.
I think the choices around Iraq will be less important in 2009. What will be more significant will be the future choices around Iran, Pakistan, Syria and North Korea and technology policy choices.
April 10, 2008
China currency stronger than 7 to the US dollar
China's yuan is now stronger 7 to 1 versus the US dollar [6.99 as of April 10, 2008]
The Asia Times discusses the advantages of a strong currency for China.
Beijing may have so far the strongest incentive not to wage any currency wars but to accelerate the pace of yuan’s appreciation. In January, the consumer price index in China went up 7.1% from a year earlier, followed by a 8.7% year-on-year increase in February (Bloomberg, March 28). A major appreciation of the yuan, together with raising the interest rate further, is seen as the most effective way of bringing China's ongoing inflation under control.
A stronger yuan, Yu Yongding [director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and former member of the country's powerful Currency Committee] writes, will certainly have an impact on China's export volumes, and potentially affect some manufacturing jobs. But the impact will be limited given the size of the Chinese economy. Furthermore, China's imports will become cheaper, thus canceling out any negatives that may come from the reduced exports. Ultimately, such macro-level adjustment will make the Chinese economy much healthier and more competitive.
The NY Times take on the stronger yuan
Many specialists believe the shifting fortunes of the yuan and the dollar are healthy for the global economy because they reflect the reality of a weakening American economy and China’s growing wealth. Before, many economists complained, America was consuming far too much and China was overproducing and not consuming enough.
“This is helping rebalance the global economy,” an economist at Credit Suisse, Dong Tao, said. “But this is also very significant for China’s export sector. We forecast that as many as one third of export manufacturers may close down over the next three years.”
FURTHER READING
The yuan passed 7.3 at the end of 2007
Some are project the yuan to be at 6.45-6.8 by June, 2008
'Inflation in China is the number one policy concern,' said David Mann, currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank. 'At the moment, the priority is to lower inflation over growth.'
The Chinese government earlier today revised its gross domestic product growth for 2007 to 11.9 percent from 11.4 percent. It was the fifth straight year that GDP expanded at more than 10 percent.
The yuan will probably appreciate to 6.45 to the dollar by the end of June and to 6.10 to a dollar next year, said Mann.
If David Mann were correct then the projection below would have China with Hong Kong and Macau passing the United States economy on a exchange rate basis in 2017.
Updated projection for slightly faster appreciation, US recession and China slowdown this year and next.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD Yuan+ % China GDP China/w HK/Ma US GDP
2006 20.94 7.8 2.7 13.2
2007 23.6 11.5% 7.3 3.24 13.8
2008 26.2 9% 6.35 15% 4.1 4.4 13.9
2009 28.8 9% 5.62 13% 5.1 5.4 14.2
2010 31.6 9.5% 5.11 10 5.9 6.4 14.6
2011 34.4 9.5% 4.64 10 7.1 7.6 15.0
2012 37.5 9.5% 4.26 8.0 8.4 9.0 15.4
2013 40.9 9.0% 3.91 7.0 10.4 10.7 15.9
2014 44.6 9.0% 3.72 5.0 11.9 12.3 16.4
2015 48.2 8.0% 3.54 5.0 13.5 14.0 16.9
2016 52.0 8.0% 3.53 5.0 15.3 15.8 17.4
2017 55.9 7.5% 3.38 5.0 17.2 17.8 17.9
2018 59.8 7.0% 3.20 2.0 19.2 19.8 18.4
2019 64.0 7.0% 3.09 2.0 21.4 21.8 19.0
2020 68.5 7.0% 3.0 2 23.4 23.8 20.1
2021 72.6 6.0% 2.9 2 25.3 25.7 20.7
2022 77.0 6.0% 2.9 2 27.3 27.7 21.3
2023 80.8 5.0% 2.8 2 29.3 29.7 22
2024 84.8 5.0% 2.8 2 31.4 31.8 22.6
2025 89.1 5.0% 2.7 2 33.6 34.0 23.3
April 09, 2008
Bakken news from around the internet on the eve of the USGS report
My guess at what the USGS will report as the recoverable oil in the Bakken formation tomorrow.
Well my guess was far to optimistic. The USGS 2008 figure was 3.65 billion barrels of oil for the US part of the Bakken formation.
Stackfrac horizontal drilling that is available today could recover up to 15% of the oil in parts of the formation. 75% of the formation is in the USA. 25% is in Canada. Not all parts of the formation would have 15% recovery, some might have 0-10%. Even though future technology could improve this number, that is not what will be projected. The high price of oil means that quick wells that produce for as little as 6-12 months could be profitably drilled.
I will say for the US portion 380 billion barrels of oil in place and 42 billion barrels of recoverable oil with todays technology. My guess is whole formation has 510 billion barrels of oil in place. 15 Billion barrels of recoverable oil in Canada.
Business Week reports on the Bakken and the imminent USGS report
Salon has brief coverage.
Bakken shale blog is of course solely focused on the Bakken
The Cost of Energy summarizes some of the data and reports and agrees there is a lot of oil in place but wants the USGS and other sources to pin down whether recoverable oil is 3% or 50% and then will not say how fast it will be developed
Classical values feels that the Bakken shows that capitalism beats fear mongers again
Resource Investor has a news roundup on Bakken
North Dakota Press release from 2006
FURTHER READING
USGS 1995 study and current decline rates
Estimates of bakken oil size and timing
Multistage fracturing horizontal drilling technique
Bakken oil not fully valued
Bakken oil is highly profitable
A Saudi Arabia of oil in Bakken and Toquay formations in the USA and Canada
More bakken news from Google news
March 22, 2008
Ma of the KMT wins the Taiwan Presidency - better relations with China ahead
Ma's vote total topped the 7 million mark, a point at which it would be mathematically impossible for him to lose, the commission said.
The commission estimated that 75 percent of Taiwan's eligible voters cast ballots in the presidential race.
People want a clean a government instead of a corrupt one," Ma, also a former justice minister, told The Associated Press.
"They want a good economy, not a sluggish one. They don't want political feuding. They want peace across the Taiwan Strait. No war."
Hsieh, a former premier, conceded defeat in front of unhappy supporters, AP reported.
Ma is looking to make peace with China and open a common market with them.
Early moves are to open up many direct flights and transporation. Open up tourism from and to China from 270,000 visitor to Taiwan in 2007 up to 3.6 million by 2009. Those extra 3.3 million tourists could bring in a few billion in economic activity. Causing a boom in hotel building and bumping Taiwan GDP by 1%.
UPDATE: Some such as a Businessweek blog Eye on Asia has theorized that Cathay Pacific and Hong kong would be a loser from the Taiwan election. Because direct filghts would occur and the 270,000 visitors (more soon with the changes) would not need to fly through Hong Kong or use Cathay Pacific. I would disagree. Cathay Pacific and Dragon may not be big winners, but if the number of visitors between China and Taiwan shoots up by ten or twenty times, there could still not be a drop in the total number that pass through Hong Kong. 100% may have had to pass through Hong Kong before, but if 10% of a far larger number still choose to make a Hong Kong stopover then Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong do not lose.
China invading Taiwan over independence is pretty much off the table. [Although I never really believed it was seriously on the table. It was an occasional disruptive threat though. Missile launches into the Ocean and posturing and unproductive threats. Plus it was used as an excuse by the US military for more buildup.] Would Germany invade Austria now that they are part of the European Union ?
FURTHER READING
Another source with a more negative view of the result but a lot of details about taiwan. [Taiwan matters] and Michael Turtons other Blog, the View from Taiwan. Lots of interesting pictures
Taiwan and China
Chinas future economy and a prediction fom May, 2007 of the Ma victory
All of my Taiwan related articles
March 17, 2008
Taiwan presidential election at the end of this week
ABC News' online coverage of the Taiwan presidential election, with most polls showing presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT with big or small leads.
Prediction markets also are forecasting a Ma Ying-jeou win in the Taiwan Presidential election at the end of this week (March 22, 2008).
I have had several articles on this and my prediction has also been that Ma Ying-jeou will win. I think this is a route to less tensions between China and Taiwan and will take the possibility of China invading Taiwan pretty much off the table. The steadily weakening US dollar is continuing to keep my prediction that Chinese will pass the US economy on an exchange rate basis in 2018 plus or minus three years on track. Originally had it at 2020 but have updated it based on recent trends.
The Yuan on March 17, 2008 is at 7.08 to the USD and 11.167 to the Euro.
Taiwan Political exchange is one such prediction market
Skype's GM Christensen predict the next 10 years of Skype, VOIP and the mobile internet
Skype's Jonathan Christensen presented slides to the Emerging Communications Conference. Christensen is Skype's GM for Voice and Video. Hat tip to Phil Wolff at Skype Journal.
The Era of Rich Mobile Internet Communications [from 2008-2017]
- Multi-modal communications (original SIP vision)
- Real time HD video, Data, Presence, Text, Wideband Audio
- Smart endpoints, open platform… Application innovation..
- Fixed / Mobile Convergence – for real…
- Mash ups of web based communications
Mobility is the last anchor to the old way with the fastest growth in telecom services today and spectrum scarcity makes it a perfect walled garden. However, over the next ten years it will open up. The 22 MHz of “700 band” spectrum with “Open Platform” conditions applying now is the start of a truly open mobile situation in the USA.
March 03, 2008
China currency and economy will be third largest in 2008
The Chinese yuan is 7.10 to the US dollar
The Chinese yuan is 10.85 to the Euro
I have previously predicted that China's economy will be larger than the US economy on an exchange rate basis before 2020. and think it is most likely to happen in the 2017-2019 range
The German economy ended 2007 at about 2.364 trillion Euro.
China's economy ended 2007 at about 26.3 trillion Yuan. This does not include Hong Kong and Macau.
China's economy is growing at about 10% in 2007 and Germany at about 1.6-1.8%.
So currently as we are about to reach the end of Q1 2008, when the Euro is at 10.23 yuan to Euro or less then China is the number 3 world economy. By the middle of the year, 10.5 or better would put China as number 3 and by the end of the year 10.9 or better would be enough.
If Hong Kong and Macau are included then an exchange of 10.86 would put China number 3 at about USD3.63 trillion now.
The expectation is that the Euro will be weakening again over the next few months to 10.6 or so.
Something to keep an eye on is the Taiwanese presidential elections for March 22, 2008 I have predicted that Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT will win. The KMT landslide legislative victory and most of the polls suggest that this is a safe prediction The main difference with a KMT victory would be direct airplane flights between China and Taiwan and pretty much unrestricted investment from Taiwan into China. It should also mean greatly reduced political and military tensions over Taiwan and China with the likely prospect of some kind of peace and unification talks at some point in the near future. Positive results there seem likely to help the long term economic outlook for both Taiwan and China.
February 25, 2008
Tensilica configurable processors could make affordable petaflop and exaflop supercomputers
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab researchers are looking at is configurable processor technology developed by Tensilica Inc. The company offers a set of tools that system developers can employ to design both the SoC and the processor cores themselves. A real-world implementation of this technology. LBNL estimate that a 10 petaflop peak system built with Tensilica technology would only draw 3 megawatts and cost just $75 million. It's not a general-purpose system, but neither is it a one-off machine for a single application (like Japan's MD-GRAPE machine, for example). A 10 petaflop Opteron-based system was estimated to cost $1.8 billion and require 179 megawatts to operate; the corresponding Blue Gene/L system would cost $2.6 billion and draw 27 megawatts. Extrapolating the half petaflop Barcelona-based Ranger supercomputer to 10 petaflops, it would require about 50 megawatts and cost $600 million (although it's widely assumed that Sun discounted the Ranger price significantly). A 10 petaflop Blue Gene/P system would draw 20 megawatts, with perhaps a similar cost as the Blue Gene/L.
- AMD Opteron: Commodity Approach - Lower efficiency for scientific applications
offset by cost efficiencies of mass market
• Popular building block for HPC, from commodity to tightly-coupled XT3.
• Our AMD pricing is based on servers only without interconnect
- BlueGene/L: Use generic embedded processor core and customize System on Chip
(SoC) services around it to improve power efficiency for scientific applications
• Power efficient approach, with high concurrency implementation
• BG/L SOC includes logic for interconnect network
- Tensilica: In addition to customizing the SOC, also customizes the CPU core for
further power efficiency benefits but maintains programmability
• Design includes custom chip, fabrication, raw hardware, and interconnect
10 petaflops of sustained performance would cost 10-20 times more, which would be available for the same price in 5 years with Moore's Law.
So by 2012-2013, a 100-200 petaflop peak performance supercomputer based on configurable processors would be $75 million and an exaflop supercomputer would be in the $375-750 million range in 2012-2013.
The development of a lot of petaflop affordable power in supercomputers would help fulfill a couple of my computing predictions from 2006
10 petaflop supercomputer by 2012-2013
Petaflop personal computers and wearable computing 2016-2018
Personal petaflop machines seem likely to come about from better GPGPUs, FPGAs and mainstreaming several configurable components.
Another breakthrough is for four times as much memory in cheaper servers. More memory is needed for high performance applications
New memory controller allows four times as much memory to be placed into existing servers
MetaSDRAM is a drop-in solution that closes the gap between processor computing power, which doubles every 18 months -- and DRAM capacity, which doubles only every 36 months. Until now, the industry addressed this gap by adding higher capacity, but not readily available, and exponentially more expensive DRAM to each dual in-line memory module (DIMM) on the motherboard.
The MetaSDRAM chipset, which sits between the memory controller and the DRAM, solves the memory capacity problem cost effectively by enabling up to four times more mainstream DRAMs to be integrated into existing DIMMs without the need for any hardware or software changes. The chipset makes multiple DRAMs look like a larger capacity DRAM to the memory controller. The result is "stealth" high-capacity memory that circumvents the normal limitations set by the memory controller. This new technology has accelerated memory technology development by 2-4 years.
FURTHER READING
Powerpoint describing the Berkeley National Lab plan for customized chips for more efficiency and powerful supercomputers
Research paper on the IBM Kittyhawk project to build a global scale computer IBM wants to use supercomputers to handle many kinds of large scale applications more efficiently than with clusters of boxes.
A glimpse of how this might take shape was revealed in a recent IBM Research paper that described using the Blue Gene/P supercomputer as a hardware platform for the Internet. The authors of the paper point to Blue Gene's exceptional compute density, highly efficient use of power, and superior performance per dollar. Regarding the drawbacks of the current infrastructure of the Internet, the authors write:
At present, almost all of the companies operating at web-scale are using clusters of commodity computers, an approach that we postulate is akin to building a power plant from a collection of portable generators. That is, commodity computers were never designed to be efficient at scale, so while each server seems like a low-price part in isolation, the cluster in aggregate is expensive to purchase, power and cool in addition to being failure-prone.
The IBM'ers are certainly talking about a more general-purpose petascale application than the Berkeley researchers, but one aspect is the same: ditch the loosely coupled, commodity-based systems in favor of a tightly coupled, customized architecture that focuses on low power and high throughput. If this is truly the model that emerges for ultra-scale computing, then the whole industry is in for a wild ride.
February 20, 2008
New Space update
SpaceX dragon in cargo configuration.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) has completed the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) for the second Falcon 9 / Dragon demonstration under NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) project.
During this second and much longer demonstration, the uncrewed Dragon spacecraft will approach within 10 kilometers of the ISS and hold its position. The primary objective of the four day long mission is to demonstrate Dragon’s communication and control system links to the ISS. The three missions for the next 18 months are:
Demo Date Duration Objectives
1 Q3 2008 5 hours
Launch and separate from Falcon 9, orbit Earth, transmit telemetry, receive commands, demonstrate orbital maneuvering and thermal control, re-enter atmosphere, and recover Dragon capsule
2 Q2 2009 5 days
Full, long-duration system check-out, beginning with ISS rendezvous simulation with the Falcon 9 upper stage. Dragon will perform approach, rendezvous, and breakaway operations with the stage.
3 Q3 2009 3 days
Full cargo mission profile including mate to ISS, with empty capsule
Dragon in crew configuration
Although these demonstrations are for cargo re-supply, SpaceX designed the Dragon spacecraft to transport up to seven astronauts to Earth orbit and back. “We have made substantial progress and are confident we can address the gap between Shuttle retirement and Orion operations,” said Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX VP of Business Development. “We look forward to advancing with the crew-carrying Dragon configuration for NASA should they give the go-ahead.”
Dragon docked to the ISS
Bigelow Aerospace and Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services are engaged in discussions and converging on terms to supply Atlas V launch vehicles to provide crew and cargo transportation services to a Bigelow-built space complex.
Bigelow aerospace's Genesis II
Genesis II was successfully launched from the Kosmotras Space and Missile Complex near the town of Yasny on June 28, 2007.
During the operational phase, which is currently planned to begin in 2012, up to 12 missions per year are envisioned, increasing as demand dictates.
FURTHER READING
Hobbyspace timeline for new space developments from 2008-2020. The Hobbyspace predictions look pretty reasonable to me. Hopefully some breakthoughs in fusion and nanomaterials help to make the predictions seem tame.
There will be winners in both the Lunar Lander and Beamed Power Centennial Challenges in 2008.
In the first year of operation, starting late 2009 or early 2010, Virgin Galactic and other suborbital space tourist companies will take in ~$30M to $50M in revenue by flying a few hundred space tourists. There will be steady growth in revenue and the number of passengers in subsequent years.
In late 2010, the Falcon 9/Dragon makes its first cargo flight to the ISS. Crew operations begin by late 2011.
In 2010 Bigelow Aerospace launches the Sundancer space habitat, which can hold a crew of three.
The V-Prize competition for point-to-point spaceflight demonstration between Virginia and Europe opens in 2009 with a four year time limit and is won by 2013.
By 2015, Bigelow has 3 complexes in orbit, each consisting of at least two of the big BA-330 modules. Long term contracts with one, possibly two, launch companies, provides for a flight with crew, passengers, and cargo to each station at least once a month.
The Bigelow module complexes begin to form the nuclei of genuine long term space settlements.
2015-2020 Orbital tourism expands significantly when trips to the Bigelow Aerospace space hotel become available via commercial services that offer transport ticket prices in the $2M-$4M range. Several thousand people per year are flying on suborbital spaceflights. Prices have dropped to a few tens of thousand of dollars range.
February 14, 2008
China and Taiwan's future
Ma Ying-jeou will be elected president of Taiwan on March 22, 2008 Tensions will then ease further. Look for 2011-2012 (start of talks) or 2013-2016 (second term possible completion): talks on peace treaties and unification between Taiwan and China. Those who are Still predicting war between the US and China over Taiwan are behind the curve I would expect it to be an European Union style loose and gradual unification.
Ma has indicated that unification can only happen with a democratic China, so the prize of unification with Taiwan could be a motivation towards more democracy in China (that way the KMT-Taiwan leader could have a shot at ruling all of a unified Taiwan-China) Yang said progress on direct air and sea links was possible by the spring of 2009, but that any breakthrough on political relations — including a framework for a peace treaty — was unlikely until the second half of Ma's four-year term. George Tsai of Taipei's Chinese Culture University said the pace of a Taiwan-China rapprochement would depend on China's attitude toward Ma, possible Democratic Progressive Party efforts to derail progress, and Ma's calculations about a re-election bid in 2012.
[I believe that the recent redistricting in Taiwan has structurally ensured KMT victories. Much the way districting in the USA ensures that 98% of incumbent congressmen and senators get re-elected.]Recent polls published by the government's Mainland Affairs Council indicate about 14 percent of respondents favor unification with Beijing — either now or in the future — while about twice that number support independence.
But most Taiwanese also want greater economic engagement with China.
They believe that Chen's policies to restrict investment and prohibit direct air and maritime links were major factors in the island's relatively anemic annual growth during his nearly eight years i