There were two other larger HTR plants. One in the USA and one in Germany but both are now shut down. China actually has serious plans to follow up with a lot more plants. Perhaps a thousand of these reactors or more 
Schematic of the HTR-PM (High temperature reactor pebble bed module) Link is to eight page design paper.
A 200 MWe high temperature reactor will be the safest nuclear power plant ever designed and built. High temperature reactors can be adapted to use thorium for fuel and the plan is for factory mass produced reactors. Two year construction times and mass production driving costs down to less than half the cost of the first units. China sees these as supplemental reactors to the big reactors. They will be used in smaller cities and towns and by factories for generating industrial heat. Also, they are looking to use heat for hydrogen generation, desalination and coal liquification (at least that would be cleaner than straight coal burning).
The major safety issue regarding nuclear reactors lies in how to cool them efficiently, as they continue to produce residual heat even after shutdown. Gas-cooled reactors discharge surplus heat and don’t need additional safety systems like water-cooled reactors do. The HTR-10 was subject to a test of its intrinsic safety in September 2004 when, as an experiment, it was shut down with no cooling. Fuel temperature reached less than 1600 C and there was no failure.
“Using the existing operating HTR-10 reactor at the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University in Beijing, we have already done what would be unthinkable in a conventional reactor—we switched off the helium coolant and successfully let the reactor cool down by itself,” said Wu.
A Simpler, More Rational Way to Think about Nuclear Safety: FOUR LEVELS OF SAFETY*
[Definition developed by Professor Lawrence Lidsky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.]
LEVEL 0:
No hazardous materials or confined energy sources.
LEVEL 1:
No need for active systems in event of subsystem failure. Immune to major structural failure and operator error.
LEVEL 2:
No need for active systems in event of subsystem failure. No immunity to major structural failure or operator error.
LEVEL 3:
Positive response required to subsystem malfunction or operator error. Defense in depth. No immunity to major structural failure.
The MHR is the only reactor that meets the criterion of Level 1 safety.
Second, the modular design enables the plant to be assembled much quicker and cost-effectively than traditional nuclear generators. Its streamlined construction timetable is also a first for the nuclear power industry, where designing and building generators usually take decades, rather than years.
The modules are manufactured from standardized components that can be mass-produced, shipped by road or rail and assembled relatively quickly. The new plants are smaller and new modules can be added as needed. Multiple reactors can be linked around one or more turbines, all monitored from a single control room. The site of the Shidaowan project will install 18 additional modules, which will total 3,800 MWe.
A demonstration high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, the HTR-PM of 200 MWe was approved in November 2005, to be built at Shidaowan, near Rongcheng in Weihai city, Shandong province by Huaneng Shidaowan Nuclear Power Company. This consortium is led by the China Huaneng Group Co. - the country's largest generating utility but hitherto without nuclear capacity. The project received environmental clearance in March 2008 for construction start in 2009 and commissioning by 2013. 
The Modular High Temperature Pebble Bed reactor should also use half of the steel and one third of the concrete of Light Water reactors.
A 10 MWt high-temperature gas-cooled demonstration reactor (HTR-10), having fuel particles compacted with graphite moderator into 60mm diameter spherical balls (pebble bed) was commissioned in 2000 by the Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology (INET) at Tsinghua University near Beijing. It reached full power in 2003 and has an outlet temperature of 700-950°C and may be used as a source of process heat for heavy oil recovery or coal gasification. It is similar to the South African PBMR intended for electricity generation. It was subject to a test of its intrinsic safety in September 2004 when as an experiment it was shut down with no cooling. Fuel temperature reached less than 1600°C and there was no failure.
Initially the HTR-10 has been coupled to a steam turbine power generation unit, but second phase plans are for it to operate at 950°C and drive a gas turbine, as well as enabling R&D in heat application technologies. This phase will involve an international partnership with Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), focused particularly on hydrogen production.
A key R&D project is the demonstration Shidaowan HTR-PM of 200 MWe (two reactor modules, each of 250 MWt) which is being built at Shidaowan in Shandong province, driving a single steam turbine at about 40% thermal efficiency.
The 40% efficiency of a MHR driving steam can turbine can be seen. China will switch to higher efficiency gas turbine cycle in later versions.
The size was reduced to 250 MWt from earlier 458 MWt modules in order to retain the same core configuration as the prototype HTR-10 and avoid moving to an annular design like South Africa's PBMR.
China Huaneng Group, one of China's major generators, is the lead organization in the consortium with China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Group (CNEC) and Tsinghua University's INET, which is the R&D leader. Chinergy (a 50-50 joint venture of INET and CNEC) is the main contractor for the nuclear island. Projected cost is US$ 430 million, with the aim for later units being US$ 1500/kWe. The licensing process is under way with NNSA and construction is likely to start early in 2009 with completion expected in 2013.
The HTR-PM will pave the way for 18 (3x6) further 200 MWe units at the same site in Weihai city - total 3800 MWe - also with steam cycle. INET is in charge of R&D, and is aiming to increase the size of the 250 MWt module and also utilise thorium in the fuel. Eventually a series of HTRs, possibly with Brayton cycle directly driving the gas turbines, will be factory-built and widely installed throughout China.
In March 2005 an agreement between PBMR of South Africa and Chinergy of Beijing was announced. PBMR Pty Ltd is has been taking forward the HTR concept (based on earlier German work) since 1993 and is ready to build a 125 MWe demonstration plant. Chinergy Co. is drawing on the small operating HTR-10 research reactor at Tsinghua University which is the basis of their 100 MWe HTR-PM demonstration module which also derives from the earlier German development.
Both PBMR and HTR-PM are planned for operation about 2013. The new agreement is for cooperation on the demonstration projects and subsequent commercialisation, since both parties believe that the inherently safe pebble bed technology built in relatively small units will eventually displace the more complex light water reactors.
General Atomics of the United States with Russian partners have had an advanced modular helium reactor design completed since 2001, but actual construction has been stalled
China will be heading towards the GT-MHR design in stages of actually completed reactors.
The gas turbine part of the reactor design
The chinese steam cycle MHR will achieve much of the benefits of the Gas Turbine MHR and the gas turbine version chinese reactors will have roughly the same benefits in terms of less nuclear waste.
FURTHER READING
High temperature reactor history
Iris reactor license application inactive until 2010.
Documentation on the Iris reactor
High Temperature reactor conference
France also has a high temperature reactor design the Anteres, but they do not have firm construction plans
Cleantechnica followed the coverage provided here and adds some interesting information
June 30, 2008
World's First Commercial High Temperature Nuclear Reactor starts construction in China in 2009
June 27, 2008
Nanostructure copper interfaces for enhanced boiling
"By themselves, the nanoscale and microscale textures are not able to facilitate good boiling, as the nanoscale pockets are simply too small and the microscale cavities are quickly flooded by water and therefore single-use," Koratkar said. "But working together, the multiscale effect allows for significantly improved boiling. We observed a 30-fold increase in active bubble nucleation site density — a fancy term for the number of bubbles created — on the surface treated with copper nanotubes, over the nontreated surface."
Boiling is ultimately a vehicle for heat transfer, in that it moves energy from a heat source to the bottom of a vessel and into the contained liquid, which then boils, and turns into vapor that eventually releases the heat into the atmosphere. This new discovery allows this process to become significantly more efficient, which could translate into considerable efficiency gains and cost savings if incorporated into a wide range of industrial equipment that relies on boiling to create heat or steam.
Caption: A scanning electron microscope shows copper nanorods deposited on a copper substrate. Air trapped in the forest of nanorods helps to dramatically boost the creation of bubbles and the efficiency of boiling, which in turn could lead to new ways of cooling computer chips as well as cost savings for any number of industrial boiling application. Credit: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute/ Koratkar
The team's discovery could also revolutionize the process of cooling computer chips. As the physical size of chips has shrunk significantly over the past two decades, it has become increasingly critical to develop ways to cool hot spots and transfer lingering heat away from the chip. This challenge has grown more prevalent in recent years, and threatens to bottleneck the semiconductor industry's ability to develop smaller and more powerful chips.
Boiling is a potential heat transfer technique that can be used to cool chips, Koratkar said, so depositing copper nanorods onto the copper interconnects of chips could lead to new innovations in heat transfer and dissipation for semiconductors.
FURTHER READING
Supporting material for the research paper
June 26, 2008
New Oil production for the United States: Thunder Horse
The British Petroleum offshore oil rig Thunder Horse started production on June 14, 2008 This is US domestic oil in the gulf of Mexico. It will be producing 250,000 barrels of oil per day in 2009.
Thunder Horse page at BP.com
The new production is still not enough as the CIBC is predicting $200 per barrel of oil and $7 per gallon in the USA by 2010.
While Americans are already driving 11 billion fewer miles than they did last year, a decline of 4.3%, they still drive today about 30% more than they did before the OPEC oil shocks. The elasticity of driving to gasoline prices is estimated to be around the 0.06. That means a 10% rise in gasoline prices will eventually lead to a 0.6% reduction in miles driven. Using that rule of thumb, the 280% cumulative rise in gasoline prices between 2004 and our target $7 per gallon target price should induce more than 15% reduction in miles driven on American roads.
This would be predicted to apply a hit to the US economy.
At a minimum, once the worst of the housing shock passes, the Fed will be forced to raise real interest rates back to zero in order to prevent an improving economy from allowing wages and other prices to catch up to oil. With CPI trending at an energy- and food-driven 4%, that will entail 200 basis points in tightening to get to a 4% funds rate by the end of next year. As a result of our upward revised call for both oil and interest rates, we’ve chopped our US growth forecast for 2009 from just over 2% as of two months ago, to little over 1%, no better than this year’s housing-blunted performance. The US economy has managed to avoid feeling the full brunt of oil prices over the last few years, but 2009 will be the year that its luck runs out
Thunder Horse’s actual “production profile” hinges on “well performance” and “how fast we are able to drill and connect new wells,” BP spokesman Ronnie Chappell cautioned.
The Thunder Horse field is located in Mississippi Canyon Blocks 776, 777 and 778, in the Boarshead Basin, 125 miles south-east of New Orleans. It is the largest field in the Gulf of Mexico and lies at a water depth of 6,000ft. The field was discovered in 1999. BP operates the development (75% interest), with co-venturer ExxonMobil owning the balance. The reservoir consists of Upper Miocene turbidite sandstones 6,000m beneath the seabed in 1,900m of water. Pressures exceed 1,200bar and temperatures reach 135°C
Norway Alvheim; Volund; Vilje had first oil June 9, 2008 as well.
Marathon Oil believes the Alvheim; Volund; Vilje output will be at 75,000 bpd in early 2009
FURTHER READING
Other oil megaprojects for 2008
Russia's Yuzhno-Khylchuyuskoye "YK" for July 2008 start to get 150,000 bpd in 2009
Russia's Vankorskoye for October 2008 to get 420,000 bpd peaking in 2017
Brazil Marlim Sul Mod 2 P-51 for August 2008 to get 180,000 bpd
Brazil Marlim Leste P-53 for August 2008 to get 180,000 bpd
Brazil Marlim Leste (FPSO Cidade de Niteroi) Dec 2008 for 100,000 bpd
Canada's Horizon Oil Sands Project (Phase I) for Sept 2008 start to get 110,000 bpd
June 25, 2008
Amory Lovins distorts nuclear energy and promotes air pollution
Amory Lovins wrote the nuclear illusion which looks at the data from 2000 forward or 1990 forward but he claims a decades long (plural so at least two decades and Lovins has been claiming nuclear collapse since the 1970s) collapse of nuclear energy.
Since 1980, nuclear power TWH has increased by over 400%. So Amory Lovins is wrong about nuclear energy being a collapsing industry.
The charts that Lovins uses are only looking at 2000 forward or look at "new additions" when the bulk of nuclear power generation increases was from operating improvement and uprates to existing reactors.
The "micropower" is mostly diesel, biomass and natural gas of small and big sizes. Natural gas has 4 deaths per TWH (Externe source). So 2500 Twh (to displace nuclear power) would be 10,000 deaths per year. The diesel (oil) portion is 35 deaths per TWH. The biomass about 10 deaths per TWH (35,000 deaths per year if diesel was the main source). The blended rate of deaths per TWH from micropower is over 12 deaths per TWH. Far higher than the 0.65 deaths per TWH calculated by Externe for nuclear power. Even if the micropower deaths per TWH was cut in half for lower distribution losses the number is still far higher. Diesel and natural gas are not renewable. Over 75% of the power that Lovins is talking about is diesel, natural gas and biomass.
Deaths per TWH for all energy sources
Natural gas is not renewable. So is Lovins advocating an increase of more than double the US military deaths of the 5+ years of the Iraq war every year from more natural gas air pollution and other causes ?
All energy build costs went up with the increase in commodity prices (steel, concrete, oil)
There are wind turbine shortages and backorders for several years for the large efficient turbines.
Nuclear operating costs and efficiency are on continuing to the improvements that they have made for decades.
Laser uranium enrichment 3-10 times cheaper and more efficient.
Existing nuclear power plants are getting 20 year extensions and power uprates.
MIT/Westinghouse commercializing new 50% power uprates for annular fuel.
FURTHER READING
Further analysis of deaths per TWH
Nuclear power build in China and the rest of the world
Feed in tariffs subsidies for renewables
Energy costs with externalities
Staffing an expanding nuclear industry
constructing a lot of nuclear power is not supply constrained
Nuclear forging bottleneck is being addressed
Idaho national lab plan to extend nuclear plants to 80 years of operation and increase build in the USA to over 10 reactors per year
New smaller and mass produced reactors will address the larger finance issues
Mass producable uranium hydride reactors
The Fuji molten salt reactor
THE DEBATES ON NUCLEAR ILLUSION
David Bradish critique part 1 vs Nuclear illusion
David Bradish critique part 2 vs Nuclear illusion
David Bradish critique part 3 vs Nuclear illusion
David Bradish critique part 4 vs Nuclear illusion
Gristmill rebuttal part one
Gristmill/Lovins rebuttal part 2
Amory Lovins supports "clean coal"
Amory Lovins fossil fuel apologist
June 23, 2008
Arata Cold Fusion follow up : how much excess heat
This is a follow up on the Arata cold fusion experiment which was showing excess heat
Physics world has a review of the Arata cold fusion research This information is a review of the Arata cold fusion work at the LENR-CANR site. [Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, also known as Cold Fusion. (CANR, Chemically Assisted Nuclear Reaction)]
Based on 0.5 to 1 degree celsius of excess heat for one liter of water for 5000 minutes then it appears to be about 200-400 kwh of excess heat.
A deuterium (cold fusion) versus hydrogen (ordinary chemical) experiment is performed by Arata. There is always a significant temperature difference between T (inside, Tin) and T(surface of the energy cell, Ts), indicating that the sample and cell are not reaching equilibrium. After 300 minutes the Tin of the deuterium experiment is about 28 °C (4 °C warmer than ambient), while Tin/Ts of the hydrogen experiment is at about 25 °C (1 °C warmer than ambient).
Arata claims that, given the large amount of power involved, this must be some form of fusion — what he prefers to call "solid fusion". This can be described, he says, by the following equation:
D + D = 4He + heat
The deuterium experiments remain 1 °C or more than ambient for at least 3000 minutes while still exhibiting the temperature difference between the sample and the cell, Tin and Ts.
20 °C calorie: the amount of energy required to warm 1 g of air-free water from 19.5 °C to 20.5 °C at a constant pressure of 101.325 kPa (1 atm). This is about 4.182 J. The experiment appears to have been dealing with one liter of water. So one extra degree for 5000 minutes would be 300,000 seconds times 4172 joules which is 1251.6 megajoules. This is 347.6 kwh. Being able to convert that thermal energy into electricity would not be efficient without boosting the temperature.
June 22, 2008
Saudi Arabia oil: Background on Zuluf, Safaniyah, Berri, Khurais and Shaybah the sources of increased production
The increased production fields have rectangles around the name. Information from the EIA Saudi Arabia Country report Click on the picture for a larger version.
Saudi Arabia will increase production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day of oil by the end of next year [2009] and could add a further 2.5 million barrels a day if needed, from some new giant fields, Naimi said.
The further daily capacity includes 900,000 barrels from the Zuluf field, 700,000 barrels from Safaniyah, 300,000 barrels from Berri, 300,000 barrels from Khurais and 250,000 barrels from Shaybah, Naimi said.
``Saudi Arabia is prepared and willing to produce additional barrels of crude above and beyond the 9.7 million barrels per day, which we plan to produce during the month of July, if demand for such quantities materializes and our customers tell us they are needed,'' Naimi said.
Saudi Arabia's capacity will be 12.5 million barrels a day by the end of 2009 and may rise to 15 million after that if necessary, he said
The market needs between 3 million and 4 million barrels a day of spare oil production capacity, compared with the 2 million barrels a day currently available, Bodman said. OPEC says the world's spare capacity is about 3 million barrels a day, with two- thirds of that in Saudi Arabia.
Safaniyah, by far the largest offshore oilfield in the world, was found in 1951 by Texaco (which in 1937 was the first to join SoCal - now Chevron - in Saudi Arabia as a 50% partner in Aramco. But now Taxaco is part of Chevron).
Safaniyah has over 15 bn barrels of proven oil reserves recoverable at relatively low cost. The oil is heavy, 27[degrees] API with 2.93-2.96% sulphur, and much of Safaniyah's 1.5m b/d capacity has been mothballed. Like most other offshore fields in the north-east, the oil is reservoired in Cretaceous sandstones and carbonates mainly at a depth of 5,100 ft.
Berri, found in 1964 by Mobil, is an onshore and offshore giant. It has over 10 bn barrels of 32-34-39 deg. API oil recoverable at relatively low cost. The field produces from several formations of Upper and Mid-Jurassic age, lying mostly at a depth of 8,300 feet. Its capacity has been raised from less than 700,000 b/d in 1990 to 1.15m b/d.
Berri crude oils are blended with lighter grades mostly produced from Abqaiq and the field's system can take crude oils from Qatif. The export blend is Arabian Extra Light, 38 deg. API with about 1% sulphur.
From the EIA country report: Shaybah contains an estimated 14.3 billion barrels of premium grade 41.6o API sweet (nearly sulfur-free) Arab Extra Light crude oil, with production as of November 2006, at around 550,000 bbl/d from 141 wells. It is the largest oil field in the world that has been developed in the past two decades. According to Oil Minister Naimi (October 1999), the development of Shaybah showed that "the cost of adding...capacity - that is, all the infrastructure, producing and transportation facilities - necessary to produce one additional barrel of oil per day in Saudi Arabia is, at most, $5,000 compared to between $10,000 and $20,000 in most areas of the world."
-The Shaybah complex includes three gas/oil separation plants (GOSPs) and a 395-mile pipeline to connect the field to Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia's closest gathering center, for blending with Arab Light crude (Berri and Abqaiq streams). In addition to oil, Shaybah has a large natural gas "cap" (associated gas), with estimated reserves of 25 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Gas production of 880 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) is re-injected. It is reported that possible gas recovery project could be implemented within 5 or 6 years, potentially for use in petrochemical production.
-The Khurais fields (including Abu Jifan and Mazalij) west of Ghawar, will increase Saudi production capacity (of Arab Light) by 1.2 million bbl/d at a cost of $3 billion. Once online, Saudi Arabia will be the only oil producer to have two “super giant” fields, that which produce more than 1 million bbl/d of crude oil. This is to involve installation of four GOSPs, with a capacity of 200,000 bbl/d each, at Khurais, which first came online in the 1963, but was mothballed by Aramco some three-decades later. Aramco plans to drill at least 300 exploration wells with 23 rigs.
Click on the picture for a larger version.
Recent Saudi Oil Production was as low as 8.6 million bpd in 2007
FURTHER READING
Oil megaprojects from around the world
June 20, 2008
Updated China economic projection
China's GDP in 2007 was 24.66 trillion yuan ($3.38 trillion) and per capita GDP was $2,556, official figures suggest.
UPDATE of this May article:
China's currency is now 6.88 yuan to 1 USD. China's GDP is now $3.78 trillion.
Hong Kong's GDP is $409 billion in 2008
Including Hong Kong and Macau China has $4.2 trillion GDP.
China reports its own military spending at about 417.8 billion yuan. [US$60.7 billion] which would put China as the fourth largest spender after the USA, France and the UK
Rand has estimated China's spending to be 33% higher than reported amounts and DoD doubles the military spending. Either adjustment would put China as the second largest military spender but well behind the USA's military spending.
The Economist magazine noted that China's national economic figures have been inaccurate but that the provincial numbers which show 10% higher growth have historically been shown to be more correct.
Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, calculates that in 2007 the combined output of the provinces was 10% more than that reported by Beijing. Their average growth rate of 13.1% was also still 1.2 percentage points higher than the revised national growth rate, although the gap has narrowed from almost three points in 2005.
Updated projection for currency, US recession and China but not with the 10% higher provincial growth numbers and the new 2007 GDP number. If growth did average 1.2% faster and US growth was weaker then China could pass the USA on an exchange rated basis in 2014. My updated likely estimate is for 2015-2018 for China's economy to pass the USA economy. The most likely years are 2016-2017. The latest exchange rate is 6.94 [6.88 June 20, 2008] yuan to 1 USD. Key factors are the pace of change in the exchange rate, the degree to which China can maintain high growth and how fast the US economy grows. As previously noted at this site: China should maintain high growth until 2020 because of the migration of 1-2% of the population each year from rural areas to urban areas. Those people over a few years provide 4 times as much gdp per capita. This provides a boost of 3-6% to the annual growth rate.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP
2007 24.66 11.9% 7.3 3.38 3.7 13.8
Jun08 26.0 6.88 3.78 4.2 Past Germany
Oct08 26.7 6.65 4.0 4.45
2008 27.3 10.2% 6.35 4.3 4.8 14.0
2009 30.1 9.8% 5.62 5.4 5.9 14.2 Pass Japan
2010 33.7 9.5% 5.11 6.6 7.1 14.6
2011 37.0 9.5% 4.64 8.0 8.5 15.0
2012 40.6 9.5% 4.26 9.5 10.0 15.4
2013 44.2 9.0% 3.91 11.3 11.8 15.9
2014 48.2 9.0% 3.72 13.0 13.5 16.4
2015 52.0 8.0% 3.54 14.7 15.2 16.9
2016 56.2 8.0% 3.53 16.7 17.2 17.4 Passing USA
2017 60.4 7.5% 3.38 18.8 19.4 17.9 Past USA
2018 64.2 7.0% 3.20 20.9 21.5 18.4
2019 69.2 7.0% 3.09 23.0 23.6 19.0
2020 74.0 7.0% 3.0 25.2 25.8 19.6
2021 78.4 6.0% 2.9 27.2 27.8 20.2
2022 83.1 6.0% 2.9 29.4 30.0 20.8
2023 87.3 5.0% 2.8 31.5 32.2 21.4
2024 91.7 5.0% 2.8 33.7 34.4 22.0
2025 96.3 5.0% 2.7 36.1 36.8 22.7
2026 101.1 5.0% 2.6 38.7 39.4 23.4
2027 106.1 5.0% 2.6 41.4 42.1 24.1
2028 111.4 5.0% 2.5 44.4 45.1 24.8
2029 117.0 5.0% 2.5 47.5 48.2 25.5
2030 122.8 5.0% 2.4 50.9 51.6 26.3 Close to double USA
FURTHER READING
China's economy now third largest passing Germany.
Part of the reason for China's GDP growth, lower cost of infrastructure
China is planning to complete rebuilding from the recent earthquake within 3 years. This compares to longer timeframes for US rebuilding after the San Francisco earthquake (still working on the Bay bridge) and from Katrina. The replacement of the eastern span of the Bay Bridge appears like it will cost $6.3 billion and be completed in 2013. 24 years after the 1989 quake.
The rebuilding of damage from China's quake will cost a lot less than repairs in the USA. $10 billion has been set aside for repairs in China.
The new Olympic stadium (the bird nest) only cost $500 million and was completed in 52 months
China has already started demolition of unsafe structures and towns.
Beijing's new airport (the world’s largest and most advanced airport building)is larger than all five London terminals and cost an estimated $3.75 billion to construct, occupies 14 million square feet and was finished in four years. London Heathrow's Terminal 5 took nearly 20 years to build and cost at least twice as much as the one in the Chinese capital.
Chinese and Russian officials signed a $1 billion deal Friday to have Moscow build a nuclear fuel enrichment plant in China and supply uranium.
The deal calls for Russia to build a $500 million nuclear fuel enrichment plant and supply semi-enriched uranium worth at least $500 million. Earlier this year, a Russian company completed work on two 1,000-megawatt light-water reactors for China's Tianwan nuclear power plant south of Shanghai. China plans to build 40 plants by 2020, tripling the nuclear share of its power generation to 6 percent.
Westinghouse secured a $5.3 billion order from China National Nuclear in July to provide four AP1000 nuclear power reactors in Haiyang, Shandong Province and Sanmen, Zhejiang Province, both in eastern China. Four AP1000 in the USA for Florida Power and Light are contracted in 2008 for $13.7 billion, $2927/kw.
June 19, 2008
Achieving a Mundane Technological Transhuman Singularity
Some people have criticized the technological Singularity and Transhumanism because of the upside being things that they do not believe can be achieved.Also, the primary technologies that are often described as enabling the Singularity and Transhumanism are Molecular Nanotechnology and greater than human intelligence general AI. There has been virtually no effort or money spent to develop diamondoid molecular nanotechnology and greater than human AGI is something that will be a rapid shift. For AGI, one can imagine the situation before Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov in chess. A couple of years before it happened many people thought it would be long time before a computer won at chess and many were surprised when it did happen.
This site does not agree that Molecular Nanotechnology (MNT) is not achievable or that greater than human intelligence AI is not achievable. However, let us examine how some of the primary Singularity and Transhuman goals can be achieved even without Molecular Nanotechnology or greater than human intelligence AGI.
The goals, with the first blurb the term used by a critic (Richard Jones for the first three and then goals many have derided for the later goals) and goals from Eric Drexler's website related to MNT, and what follows as a more detailed description of a precise and measurable goal.
1. End scarcity : Relative economic abundance with every living person having an personal resources at the affluent level of a current US citizen. $250,000 per person per year in purchasing power parity income. [The income level that Obama would want to tax more heavily if he become President]. No shortages of any basic need water, food, medical care [equal to that which is achieving the medical results currently affordable to an affluent person now] and energy [currently a US citizen uses an average of 13,000 kwh per year for electricity and three times that for transportation and a share of industrial energy usage. So abundance is 100,000 kwh for every person and assuming a future population of 10 billion is 1000 trillion kwh.
A manufacturing and construction revolution can be achieved with printable buildings, inflatable electric cars, printable electronics and advanced automated rapid manufacturing.
Computer simulation and detailed modeling and other enabling technology will enable the revolution.
Paper stronger than cast iron made from plant cellulose is here and will make manufacturing far cheaper.
Stem cell meat factories, advanced aquaculture and vertical farming and more advanced genetically engineered food will enable an abundance of food. The vertical farming would be further enabled by the printing building technology.
Aquaculture (fish farming) already provide over half of the world's fish.
For water desalination is already very advanced and it is becoming more energy efficient and cheaper. More abundant and affordable energy helps to create more water from desalinization.
The mass produced uranium hydride nuclear reactor would be part of a relatively mundane energy abundance solution. These reactors would have far less waste since 50 times more fuel would be burned generating energy. Molten salt reactors are even more efficient and could burn 99% of the uranium and plutonium in the reactor.
Increasing the current level of nuclear power in the world by 450 times would achieve the 1000 trillion kwh level. Increasing the efficiency of so that fuel usage is reduced by 30 to 98 times and being able to use thorium as well as uranium would ensure that there is sufficient nuclear fuel for the 5-15 times more per year that would be needed. There is uranium in seawater and Japanese researchers have been able to extract kilograms of it. It would cost more but fuel costs are only a small percentage of a nuclear plants operation.
2. Eradicate death [A Jones term]: Achieving actuarial escape velocity [which is not eradicating death but radical life extension] whereby life expectancy increases at greater than one year for each year that passes. No age related disease caused deaths. An increased level of increased physical regeneration and restoration. Really bad accidents or destructive weapons would still be able to kill. Advanced technology could create a precise copy of a person, but whether this will be done for ethical and societal reasons or whether the copy is the person is not discussed. A copy of "the mind" could be created in another substrate (ie. not a flesh and blood person but a computer than simulates "the mind").
Calorie restriction mimicking drugs could be available within five years according to a leading researcher and should provide 3-13 years of increased life span
Treatments to boost the human immune system against cancer and effective and cheap early detection of cancer cells will enable a massive decrease in cancer deaths.
The SENS project has raised over ten million dollars and is launching projects for each of the seven parts of the initial program to substantial extend human lives. This would be a major first step on the actuarial escape velocity path.
Regenerative medicine is making substantial advances with stem cells, tissue generation, and increasing the regenerative capability in humans to be more like salamanders (able to regrow limbs.) This research is well funded by the US defence department with the AFIRM (Armed Forces Institute of Regenerative Medicine funded for $250 million for five years) project.
3. Eliminate the bungled mechanisms that introduce imperfections into the human body: Enhance various performance aspects of the human body. Various medical and mechanical enhancements will be discussed which will be significant advances to existing performance enhancement.
Effective and safe myostatin inhibition will likely be developed which will enable most people to become several times stronger and closer to the best levels achievable now (one in one million people already have myostatin inhibited and it is four times as effective as high doses of steroids).
Cognitive enhancement is already here and will become more effective.
Craig Venter, billionaire and enabler of new gene therapy and synthetic biology technology, has indicated that very strong cognitive enhancement is possible, desirable and a goal that he wants to achieve.
From the Eric Drexler website - things that MNT would enable.
- desktop computers with a billion processors
- inexpensive, efficient solar energy systems
- medical devices able to destroy pathogens and repair tissues
- materials 100 times stronger than steel
4. Blood stream robots or achieving the goals (cellular surgery and repair) for which blood stream robots were proposed using other means. [medical devices able to destroy pathogens and repair tissues]
Nanoparticles, existing blood stream robots and guideable containers and cellular repair are being proven and people are working to improve and deploy them.
5. Materials 100 times stronger than steel [cheap and commonly used] : Production or access to diamond and carbon nanotubes increased by 1000 times and using diamond as a primary material for house sized objects and for electronics.
Carbon nanotube production will be ramped up which will become very cheap and will be deployed widely
Very large (multi-carat) diamonds can be produced very fast since 2005 Current methods can produce, three-dimensional growth of colorless single-crystal diamond in the inch-range (~300 carat) is achievable. Large scale production and scaling up diamond creation is an active and well funded area.
6. Open access to space [within the solar system for human and robotic travel and small probes up to a significant fraction of light speed for interstellar access]
Ten near term developments for greatly improved space access were covered here
Mirrored laser arrays are achievable with refinement of current technology as is nuclear propulsion.
7. Pollution "elimination" : Reduction of pollution into the environment and nearly complete elimination of deaths caused by pollution.
The use of the uranium hydride and molten salt reactor would greatly reduce the use of fossil fuels.
This sites proposed energy plan is a fast, affordable, and low technology development risk path to eliminating fossil fuels and enabling abundant clean energy.
8. Desktop computers with one billion processors (or performance greater than one billion of todays processors)
500 cores in new teraflop chips for less than $200 for the processor.
Berkeley and Tensilica already working towards energy efficient and affordable exaflop computers for the 2015-2017 timeframe
Design conferences have been held to work out details on zettaflop computers
9. Shape changing functional devices like utility fog
Claytronics has been funded by Intel.
Precise 3 dimensional manufacturing is progressing
Conclusion
So how much of some of the key goals of a transhuman singularity can be achieved without fullblown molecular nanotechnology, AGI or fusion ? Quite a bit. which is why the real deal with molecular nanotechnology, AGI and fusion will be really impressive. The mundane technological singularity shows the kinds of societal shifts that will be needed in order to fully take advantage of the upside. A lot of systems and processes have to be redesigned. The mundane singularity is 100 to 1000 times faster in terms of production and various capabilities.
June 18, 2008
What if Blacklight Power works in 2009 ?
Top view of the apparatus [Blacklight power is using] for scattering an electron beam from a crossed atomic or molecular beam and measuring the fifth-force deflected beam. NOTE: this is not the generator but a device for testing some of the science behind it.
Blacklight Power, a company with $60 million in funding from respected funding sources, claims to have built a 50 kw prototype power generation device.[this link is to a prior article with a picture of the generator] They claim that the device will generate power at ten times less cost than the cheapest coal, wind and nuclear power now. They are expecting to have built a factory for mass producing power generation devices in 2009 and to scale the system up to 3MW or more and down to smaller power levels. However, even more important than solving all energy problems would be that Blacklight power could then be right about Hydrinos and a fifth physical force and a possible grand theory including gravity. Their power system can be 137 times more powerful than traditional chemistry. A better power system would help many space applications and they also discuss a better ion propulsion drive. The claims are fantastic but they are looking to put out purchasable and useful systems next year.
The fifth-force acceleration based on this estimate is over twelve orders of magnitude greater. As one application, even a micro fifth-force device has great promise as a replacement for micro-ion-thrusters for maintaining the orbits of satellites.
Hydrinos are hydrogen atoms with the electrons in a theoretical lower energy state which allows 100 times more power to be generated than typical hydrogen chemistry.
They are claiming that quantum levels are not integers but that fractional subquantum levels are possible from (1/2, 1/3, 1/4, ... 1/137)
They claim that Li and NaH are catalysts for achieving these subquantum level states for hydrogen. H2 (1/p) is claimed to be stable and lighter than air and cannot accumulate in the earth's atmosphere.
Power generation with Blacklight power system
When the hydrino is created through a reaction between hydrogen and a catalyst, according to Mills, it lets go of more than enough energy to fuel electrolysis in common water, thus producing more hydrogen. The excess energy — the majority — would go to producing electricity. The only outside ingredients needed are a catalyst, to turn the hydrogen to hydrinos, and heat (which would also be generated once the reaction had started). And the hydrinos created by the process? They’re non-reactive and can be released to float up into space, as they’re lighter than helium. Or, even better, they can be processed into unique chemicals with a range of useful applications.
Schematic of the fifth force test system
UPDATE:
For clarification, the ideas and new physics/chemistry proposed by the Blacklight people goes against current science. The highly regarded living and dead scientists (including nobel prize winners) would have to be wrong in regards to the areas of physics and chemistry effected by the Blacklight/Hydrinos/Nwe physics theories and experiments (IF Blacklight Power is right which is a series of huge IFs).
It would take a series of improbable events for Blacklight to be totally right. The device could partially work but for reasons other than the new physics and chemistry that they propose.
Chemistry that is one hundred times more powerful would have a massive effect.
New physics (especially if what was a correct Grand Unified theory) would also be huge.
New power sources.
All of the claimants in these areas have always been wrong except for Einstein, Newton and a few other instances where fundamental science changed.
June 12, 2008
Iraq Oil production could increase by 400,000 bpd by the end of 2008
Following up on Iraq Oil status Oil production and output holding steady at higher levels that started in May. Iraq will produce up to 2.9 million bpd by the end of 2008, Hussein al-Shahristani Iraqi Oil Minister 2.9 million bpd would be an increase of about 400,000 bpd from levels at the end of May, 2008 2.53 million bpd.
Starved of access to oil and gas prospects by governments who increasingly favour development by their state oil companies, Western oil companies are eager to invest in Iraq, home to the world's third biggest oil reserves. However, the security situation and an uncertain legal framework have deterred the majors from making significant investment.
Major oil companies have all turned in their proposals for oil service deals and some will be signed this month. Shahristani had warned that Baghdad might drop the oil service contracts, worth about $500 million a piece, if the majors failed to sign deals by June. Five of the deals under discussion are with Royal Dutch Shell (nyse: RDSA), Shell in partnership with BHP Billiton (nyse: BBL), BP (nyse: BP), Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM) and Chevron (nyse: CVX) in partnership with Total. Iraq is also in talks with a consortium of Anadarko (APC.N), Vitol and Dome for a sixth contract on the Luhais field.
Dow Jones news reports the Iraqi oil ministry is planning to announce the first round of tenders to develop its vast oil fields, which are among the world's largest, at the end of June or the beginning of July, an Iraqi oil official said Monday.
"Iraq is going to announce the first round of tenders to develop super giant oil fields in southern and northern Iraq either at the end of June or the beginning of July," the official told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone from Baghdad.
The official named seven oil fields and two gas fields that would be included in the first tender announcement. They are North Rumaila, South Rumaila, Zubair, West Qurna, and Buzurgan in southern Iraq and Kirkuk and Bai Hassan in northern Iraq. The two gas fields are Akkaz in western part of the country and Mansouriya in the east.
Over the last few months, the ministry has been working to prepare contract models for these fields, the official said. The ministry has signaled that more restrictive service contracts may be used to develop these fields, rather than controversial production-sharing contracts.
The official said the ministry would hold a news conference to announce these new tenders.
Iraq is currently in the final stages of striking what are called Technical Services Contracts, or TSCs, with oil majors to help boost crude oil production in the country's largest producing fields.
Iraqi oil sources said these TSCs could be signed as early as June. Each would last two years and could be extended for another year.
Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani has threatened to cancel these TSCs if they aren't signed in June. The TSCs are designed to boost Iraq's crude oil production from producing oil fields.
Iraq wants to boost production by 600,000 barrels a day in six producing oil fields in northern and southern Iraq. They are Kirkuk in the north, West Qurna 1, Zubair, Missan, Rumaila and Luhais in the south.
FURTHER READING
State Department Iraq Weekly Report for June 11, 2008
United States might finally build a new oil refinery in 2013
The first new oil refinery in the United States in thirty years is one step closer.
Union County residents voted 58 percent to 42 percent Tuesday to endorse the rezoning of almost 3,300 acres of pristine farm land north of Elk Point for the oil refinery. Texas-based Hyperion Resources requested the rezoning for the $10 billion refinery, billed as a potential step toward national energy independence.
It will process 400,000 barrels of oil per day (mostly from Canada's oilsands) and will likely be in operation in 2013.
North Dakota reported 5700 more barrels of oil per day in March, 2008 MArch production was 143738 bopd versus February 138013 bopd.
Reece Energy Exploration Corp. rose to a third-straight record in Toronto after saying it found oil in the first well it drilled in the Bakken area in Saskatchewan
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&tab=in&ned=us&ie=UTF-8&ncl=1219754152
FURTHER READING
Previous coverage of North Dakota's Bakken Oil
Daily North Dakota drilling and production reports (after 6 months on confidential list)
North Dakota oil statistics
Latest update on Bussard Fusion Prototype WB7
"We're fully operational and we're getting data," Nebel said. "The machine runs like a top. You can just sit there and take data all afternoon.
Nebel may be low-key about the experiment, but he has high hopes for Bussard's Polywell fusion concept. If it works the way Nebel hopes, the system could open the way for larger-scale, commercially viable fusion reactors and even new types of space propulsion systems.
"We're looking at power generation with this machine," Nebel said. "This machine is so inexpensive going into the 100-megawatt range that there's no compelling reason for not just doing it. We're trying to take bigger steps than you would with a conventional fusion machine."
EMC2 built the laboratory and an experiment in nine months. If a working scaled up production system could be built in comparable time then the main part (not the site preparation and power lines) of any new reactor could be produced in 9 months or less.
this site had an article about the space propulsion breakthrough that this fusion system would enable if it is successful
June 11, 2008
Updates on World Oil Production and Demand
IEA (International Energy Agency) weekly oil report was issued June 10. Global oil product demand is expected to average 86.8 mb/d in 2008, 80 kb/d below last month’s estimate, following the reduction of price subsidies in several non-OECD countries. Global growth is cut even more steeply by 230 kb/d to +0.9% or +800 kb/d when historical upward revisions to 2006 and 2007 data are factored in.
Global oil supply rebounded by 490 kb/d in May to average 86.6 mb/d, lifted by higher OPEC crude supply. The rise however comes after extensive downward revisions to 1Q08 non-OPEC production and lower biofuels and NGLs for the rest of this year. Despite this, a recovery in non-OPEC output is forecast for the second half of 2008.
World Oil Demand is still larger than supply by 1 million b/d.
The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) posted their May, 2008 International Petroleum Monthly on June 9, 2008.
In thousands of barrels per day. Oil Production.
Time Period USA P. Gulf OAPEC OPEC World
2008 January..E 8,624 23,979 25,121 36,594 85,530
February E 8,625........24,208 36,885 85,827
March...PE 8,664 24,219 25,361 36,784 85,730
2008 3Mth AvgPE 8,638........24,134 36,751 85,693
The Persian Gulf countries are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Production from the Kuwait-Saudi Arabia Neutral Zone is included in Persian Gulf production.
OAPEC: Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
FURTHER READING
The Full IEA Oil Market Report. 60 page PDF.
June 05, 2008
2016 Next Big Predictions
This site predicts that 2016 will be year of significant milestones for technology and other world changes. A prediction on a relatively trivial topic. Tokyo will hold the 2016 summer olympics. Three other cities are still in the running. 2016 will likely be the end of the second presidential term for the president elected in 2008. Most presidents are two term presidents.
2016 is a likely year when China's growing economy and strengthening currency combine to enable it to pass the size of the US economy. This is a milestone for change that has been evolving for decades, but will have ripened by passing a key metric.
Energy
Prediction by 2016: Over 100 new Conventional nuclear reactors will add over 120GW of nuclear power. 1000 billion kwh added (Some power from uprates of existing reactors in France, USA and other places)