Showing posts with label bakken. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bakken. Show all posts

June 16, 2008

North Dakota Bakken oil increasing 5000-7000 barrels per day each month, Saskatchewan's Bakken oil increasing too

The state (North Dakota's) Industrial Commission reports that North Dakota oil wells pumped an average of 150,578 barrels a day in April. The previous high of 147,774 barrels a day was set in August 1984. North Dakota reported 5700 more barrels of oil per day in March, 2008 March production was 143738 bopd versus February 138013 bopd.

Crescent Point Energy Trust (TSX:CPG.UN) is increasing its Bakken oil in Saskatchewan, Canada spending by $200-425 million. Crescent Point is raising its production guidance by five per cent and its distributions to investors by 15 per cent.

The Calgary-based trust said Monday the increases were due to "significant growth" in its southeast Saskatchewan Bakken resource play, better-than-expected drilling and production results in its core areas, and higher than anticipated commodity prices.

The capital budget is being increased by 89 per cent to advance development at Bakken and add production at a rate of about $25,000 per barrel of oil equivalent.

Crescent Point now expects to exit 2008 with production greater than 37,500 boe per day, and is upwardly revising its 2008 average production forecast by five per cent to 36,250 boe daily.







From the Business Week article:
North Dakota surpassed Kansas in 2006 to become the eighth-largest oil-producing state in the nation, and soon will surpass Wyoming to become seventh among oil-producing states, said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council.

North Dakota produced 45 million barrels of oil last year, up about 5 million barrels from 2006, Ness said.

Production this year likely will exceed the record of 52.6 million barrels set in 1984, said Lynn Helms, the director of the state Department of Mineral Resources.

FURTHER READING
More North Dakota oil statistics

Read More...

June 04, 2008

Follow up on Bakken and 150mpg SUV hybrid car

Bloomberg news has an excellent article about the people and companies involved in developing the Bakken oilfield

AFS Trinity's 150 mpg SUV hybrid car is generating a new round of press coverage

AFS trinity appears to be looking to sell the 150 mpg SUV's to operators of car fleets

In Europe there is already a 73 mpg production car, the Skoda Fabia TDI Greenline.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE ON THESE TOPICS
Bakken oilfield in Montana

Bakken oil in North Dakota

USGS study of the Bakken

Bakken oil in Saskatchewan

Original coverage of the Bakken oilfield

150mpg SUV

The 150 mpg SUV's ultracapactor/battery combo


Read More...

May 15, 2008

Montana's Bakken oil


From a 15 slide pdf presentation by Tom Richmond on Montana's Bakken oil.

Nextbigfuture has already provided detailed coverage of Bakken oil in North Dakota and Saskatchewan

Oil companies in Montana
A breakdown by share of production in 2005. The major companies are Continental Resources, Headington Oil, Burlington Resources, Enerplus Resources USA and Encore Operating LP. Montana's Bakken oil is in Richland and Fallon counties.



Some history of Continental Resources' Montana Bakken production.



In 2006, Elm Coulee was producing about 53,000 barrels of oil per day from more than 350 wells. Ultimate production is expected to exceed 270 million barrels, with some estimates as high as 500 million barrels. Production at Elm Coulee has more than doubled the oil output of the state of Montana


An excellent presentation by Bill Walker and others from Headington Oil.




FURTHER RESEARCH

Montana oil well information is available online.

Scanning through the Montana state oil information it appears that 2007 and 2008 have been relatively flat or slightly declining from the 55,000 bpd level of 2006 for Elm coulee.
24 to 30 million barrels of oil per month for the state. About 80,000 to 100,000 bpd.

Montana's oil and gas board.

A list of links at the Montana oil and gas site for other oil and gas information across the USA

Montana's high fossil fuel scenario.

Great Falls Tribune article from April 2008 discussing the Bakken oil field, Elm Coulee and companies drilling there.

Read More...

May 01, 2008

Bakken oil study North Dakota only and independent of USGS, Active Companies and list of new 2008 producing wells


The southern play is related to the map trends that are seen in Montana and carrying them over into North Dakota. This activity is currently concentrated around McKenzie County. The northern play is related to the interval that has been producing from the middle member for a number of years. The few wells, primarily along the northern Nesson anticline, have limited production from perforations in the middle member. The Bakken in these wells was not the primary target; that was deeper usually the Devonian Winnipegosis. The Bakken was generally a bailout zone, perforated because the wells were reaching their economic limit or had no other production. [pictures and captions from a North Dakota state presentation made in Regina]

NOTE: As of May 2, 2008, I, Brian Wang, do not own any of these stocks directly. I have some mutual funds but I do not know what stocks are held there.

This article provides information on companies, links to North Dakota state reports and presentation and North Dakota released wells and initial production from each well.

This article indicates exactly how fast the Bakken is playing out. 5000 to 9000 barrels of oil per day per month in North Dakota are being added. This does not include Montana, Saskatchewan and South Dakota or Manitoba. Since the end of 2007, 23000 barrels of oil per day more oil from North Dakota (138,000 bopd total)increase to the end of February, 2008. [Most, 80-90%, from the Bakken.] A simple projection would be that 100,000 barrels per day could be added in 2008. On the positive side : Drilling activity is increasing. The summer should have more activity. On the negative side: there is the decline rate of wells, average new wells may not be as good as January and February. I will monitor and write updates as the 2008 and later information rolls in.

I focused on Saskatchewan in a separate article. Initial production has tended to decrease an average of 60% of initial production [decline rate].

Wells stay confidential for 6 months. ND also releases its actual monthly production from 3 months ago.

Sometimes during quarterly earnings reports companies will pre-release well production info generally if they have good news, like to 3000 barrels per day from two new wells from EOG / Enron Oil and Gas). In the further reading section I have and will add links to quarterly earnings transcripts for relevant oil companies. I will have the quarterly earnings call transcipts for more companies involved in ND Bakken as they become available.

Looking at only the North Dakota portion of the Bakken oil field

UPDATE: Welcome instapundit readers.

The Bakken shale formation in North Dakota holds up to 167 billion barrels of oil but only about 1 percent of it can be recovered using current technology, a new North Dakota state Department of Mineral Resources study says.

DETAILED INFORMATION
Here is a link to the daily drilling activity report for North Dakota It lists wells permited, completed, dry and released from confidential status.

Here was a big list of released from confidential status. Wells stay on the confidential list for 6 months after they are completed.

EOG Resources, Marathon Oil, Headington Oil, Continental Resources, Hess Corporation, Petro Hunt has several wells.

Some of the smaller players with poor well production might not be using the latest and best horizontal multiple fracturing methods or some may just be drilling into poorer parts of the formation.

Just from the April 28, 2008 well information release 9411 barrels of oil per day.


WELL BOPD
#16469 - EOG Resources, Herbert 1-26H, Mountrail Co. 1267
#16637 - EOG Resources, Long 1-01H, Mountrail Co. 1058
#16776 - Hunt Oil, Bowman 1-18H, Bowman Co. 864
#16713 - EOG Resources, Austin 1-02H, Mountrail Co. 781
#16751 - Marathon Oil, Reiss 34-20H, Dunn Co. 524
#16664 - Headington Oil, Basaraba 44X-27, Billings Co 485
#16730 - Burlington Resources, 11-14H, McKenzie Co. 456
#16704 - Marathon Oil, Darcy 34-32H, Dunn Co. 398
#16729 - Marathon Oil Co., Vihon 44-8H, Dunn Co. 348
#16694 - Hess Corp, Ha-Mogen-152-95, McKenzie Co. 348
#16750 - Sinclair Oil , Uran 1-22H, Mountrail Co. 337
#16749 - Headington Oil, Ekren 44X-5, Williams Co. 312
#16451 - Marathon Oil , Gerald Tuhy 21-4H, Dunn Co. 225
#16683 - Burlington Res, Federal Jorgenson 14-5H,Dunn 224
#16748 - Samson Res, Sparks 4-162-98H, Divide Co. 197
#16725 - Petro-Hunt, Gordon Hall 29C-3-1H, Divide Co. 119
#16663 - Petro-Hunt, Torgerson 15B-2-2H Mountrail Co. 117
#16560 - Samson Res, Hanisch 28-163-98H H, Divide Co. 58
#16737 - Continental Res, McGinnity 1-15H, Divide Co. 53
8171

14% of the new oil production in North Dakota was not in the Bakken for the April release. The above list removed wells for the Red River, Madison and Devonian. About 1300 bopd.

After the jump more wells from

March 13, 2008 had a large release of well production information


Bakken North Dakota Isopach. Distribution of the Middle Member throughout North Dakota and Montana. Note the prominent trend in the isopach coming in from Richland County, MT and the depositional center just to the east of the Nesson Anticline.




WELLS BOPD
#16578 - EOG Resources, Risan 1-34H, Mountrail Co. 817
#16635 - EOG Resources, Sampson 1-12H, Mountrail Co. 581
#16715 - Marathon Oil, Kevin Buehner 11-18H, Dunn Co. 463
#16656 - Headington Oil, Hazel 44X-22,Williams Co. 411
#16695 - Hess Corp, Ha-Chapin-152-95 3229H-1,McKenzie Co 392
#16726 - Marathon Oil, Benz 24-21H, Dunn Co. 278
#16699 - Continental Res., Jones 11-33NH, Bowman Co. 277
#16572 - Encore Operating, Sadowsky 44-1H, Dunn Co. 261
#16724 - Continental Res, Spry 21-13NH, Bowman Co. 232
#16702 - Continental Res, Sophia 44-12SH, Bowman Co. 228
#16676 - Murex Petroleum, Ryan Thomas 27-34H,Williams Co 223
#16701 - Headington Oil, Ramberg State 14X-15,Williams 192
#16744 - Tracker Resource Dev, LLC, Trampe 1-1H, Dunn Co 163
#16703 - Burlington Res, Kelly 44-2H, Dunn Co. 144
#16738 - Zenergy, Ft. Buford 1-16H, Williams Co. 125
#16710 - Hess Corp, BL-Wallentinson-156-95, Williams Co. 110
#16677 - Marathon Oil, Beck 24-8H, Dunn Co. 101
#16642 - Continental Res, Jorgensen 21-4 SH, Bowman Co. 54
#16428 - Summit Res., Summit State 26-34, Billings Co. 22
#16712 - Hess Corp, NSCU P-715AH, Bottineau Co. 17

bopd 5091


Feb 11, 2008 another big well information day


#16484 - EOG Resources, Wenco 1-30H, Mountrail Co. 1670
#16691 - Continental Resources, Inc., Lamb 11-24NH, Bowman Co. 614
#16542 - Whiting O&G Corporation, Lindvig 11-13, McKenzie Co. 560
#16598 - Continental Res, Kid Creek 44-29NH, Bowman Co. 519
#16571 - Burlington Res, Lillibridge 11-23H,McKenzie Co. 476
#16647 - Burlington Res, Corral Creek 34-33H, Dunn Co. 439
#16611 - Marathon Oil Company, Carlson 21-29H, Dunn Co. 428
#16629 - Whiting O&G Corporation, Solberg 32-2, Williams Co. 420
#16439 - Marathon Oil, Hecker 21-5H, Dunn Co. 373
#16689 - Helis O&G, L.L.C., Linseth 4-8H, McKenzie Co. 373
#16678 - Encore Operating, L.P., Truchan 11X-33H, Dunn Co. 315
#16653 - Prima Exploration, Inc., Paradox 11-30H, Burke Co. 285
#16502 - Encore Operating, TR Madison Unit 21-14H, Billings Co. 276
#16610 - Hess Corp, BB-Olson-150-95 0817H-1, McKenzie Co. 267
#16670 - Continental Res, Jean Nelson 1-35H, Mountrail Co. 266
#16634 - Petro-Hunt, L.L.C., Wold 31D-4-3H,Burke Co. 187
#16638 - Zenergy, Inc., Charbonneau 1-14H, Williams Co. 143
#16723 - Zavanna, LLC, Brushy Bill 1-19H, Williams Co. 140
#16679 - BTA Oil Producers, 20401 JV-P Nelson Williams Co. 138
#16420 - Summit Res, Williamson Federal 2-26, Golden Valley Co. 102
#16568 - Samson Resources Co, Holm 33-163-98H, Divide Co. 102
#16529 - Continental Res., Spry 11-13NH, Bowman Co. 100
#16681 - FH Petroleum Corp., Marie 24-28, Golden Valley Co. 72
#16706 - Hess Corporation, BLSU D-405, Williams Co. 56
#16609 - Continental Resources, Inc., Jost 1-20H, McKenzie Co. 38
#16617 - Hess Corp, Bl-Heen-156-95 2227H-1, Williams Co. 38
#16688 - Hess Corp, NSCU M-717AH, Bottineau Co. 34
#16692 - BTA Oil Prod, 20401 JV-P Gohrick 43-17, Williams Co. 32
#16641 - Continental Res, Jorgensen 21-4 NH, Bowman Co. 25
#16655 - Hess Corporation, BLDU B-305, N, Williams Co. 11
#16697 - Primewest Petroleum Price 5H, Williams Co. 10
BOPD 8509


Jan 4, 2008 another big well information release day.

North Dakota's Bakken oil is increasing at about 6000-7000 barrels of oil per day per month. The trend is for another 50,000-60,000 barrels of oil per day to be added this year (2008) For North Dakota's Bakken oil production.


Another process that affects the Bakken section is hydrocarbon generation. The Bakken is a rich source rock with TOC values ranging up to 40%. This map shows the maturity of the Bakken as a source rock. Areas of intense generation are found in McKenzie and the eastern portion of Richland Counties.


NORTH DAKOTA STATE STUDY
Current technology could lead to the recovery of about 2.1 billion barrels in North Dakota's the "middle Bakken" formation, where oil-producing rock is sandwiched between layers of shale about 10,000 feet under the ground. Helms said the federal [USGS] study focused on the performance of wells currently working in the Bakken, while the state "went back and looked at the rock."

Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, said it costs more than $5 million to drill a Bakken well, and dozens are currently producing.

"What industry is mostly concerned with is to find - economically - what is going to work in the Bakken," Ness said. "What we have right now is one big scientific experiment going on out there."

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and Montana, using current technology.

That report was done independently of the state study, Murphy said.

"Their numbers also include Montana, ours only includes North Dakota," he said.

The federal report found up to 2.6 billion barrels could be recovered in North Dakota, compared with the state's estimate of 2.1 billion barrels, Murphy said.

FURTHER READING
The Bakken oilfield in context. This article reviews the oil megaprojects around the world. The Middle east, Russia, Khazakistan, Brazil are still the bigger players. The USA should have a deep oil rig, Thunder horse, coming online in 2008 and it should reach 250,000 barrels of oil per day sometime in 2009.

The confidential well list for North Dakota

A discussion on which stocks to invest in to take advantage of the Bakken oil development

EOG, BEXP, CLR , WLL and NOG, perhaps even others like HESS

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)
Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL)
Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)
Continental Resources (CLR)
Marathon Oil (MRO)
HES corporation Q1 2008 earnings call transcript

On the Bakken, we [HESS] currently have net 410,000 acres or so. We're still in the business of acquiring more acreage provided it makes economic sense. We have 50 operated wells in the Bakken. We expect production in 2008 to be around 8,000 barrels a day. We're running six rigs. By the end of the year we'll go up to eight, and by 2009 we'll go up to 10.

Individual well rates with rates being the average of the first 30 days of production range from about 100 barrels a day to 400 barrels a day. We see some variation in the reservoir quality in an aerial sense. We're doing a lot of work to model the subsurface, to understand the geology better, and we're also continuing to do work to optimize completion practices, particularly fracing technology.


EOG Resources Q1 2008 May 2, 2008 earnings call transcript

Our 8-rig North Dakota Bakken development is proceeding as anticipated and is still averaging 100% direct after-tax reinvestment rates of return. We're consistently making very good wells.

Austin 8-26H well that was completed at the end of February had an initial production rate of 3,060 barrels of oil per day. Recently, we completed the Austin 6-15H well that had an initial production rate of 3,630 barrels of oil per day. These are the two best wells in the field today, and I will note that those are probably two of the best wells in recent history in the Bakken play in North Dakota in its entirety.

Within the Parshall field, very strong initial production rates are now routine, similar to our frequency of monster wells in the Johnson County. The more drilling we do, the more confident we are regarding our net 80 million barrel reserve estimate for this asset.

The upside to this estimate will be determined in three possible ways: First, by extending the field limits and step-outs really; second, by a possible 320-acre downspacing; and the third, by secondary recovery. The field is currently being drilling on 640 acre spacing, and we are currently completing our first 320-acre downspace well.

We will need several months of production history from the well in order to determine the impact to any increase in reserve recovery versus acceleration. I expect that by yearend, we'll have a definitive idea regarding the Bakken reserve side.

EOG currently has 320,000 net acres in the entire Williston Basin and the field that we always talk about, partial field including those 3000 barrel a day, Austin wells, really only it comes to about a 110,000 of those 320,000 acres. So, answer to your first question is absolutely, yes. We believe that there are other perspective areas within the Williston Basin that we have currently leased and we will be testing in the future for oil prospects.

[On the USGS 3.7 billion barrel estimate] The USGS estimate is the entire shale will work to the tune of maybe 25,000 total locations, wells to be drilled, and that's where we think it's perhaps a little optimistic. The shale may not be intact...Parshall is such a sweet spot because of fracture density in the facies of the rock and that will probably not be true in very many other places in the Williston Basin. So, in summary, I'd say that the overall number is not incorrect; it's just perhaps optimistic.


On the North Dakota state site the Austin 8-26H well is still listed as confidential. #16885 NWNW 26-154-90 and won't be released by the state until Aug 14, 2008. But obviously EOG is talking about it. They seem to hold the information confidential for 6 months.

16954 EOG RESOURCES, INC. AUSTIN 6-15H SWSE 15-T154N-R90W 10/8/2008

Continental Resources Q1 2008 earnings call transcript.

[Continental Resources] has increased our 2008 CapEx budget for drilling, land and seismic by $167 million, which is 27% higher than the budget approved last November. $65 million of this increase is allocated to the Bakken play in Montana and North Dakota where we have a dominant operating position.

Finally, even as we are successful in one area, we must be engaged and prepared to take new positions of significance in other resource plays as a potential in mergers. This is what Continental has accomplished in the Bakken and the Woodford, and is committed to achieve elsewhere in the United States. We are prepared to talk today about a play in Western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle, some of you have called our stealth play.

We began 2008 with 13 operated drilling rigs. We now have 22, and we expect to reach 30 by yearend. As a result of this increased activity, we expect our 2008 production exit rate will be about 43,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or about 42% higher than average rate for the first quarter just ended.

Continental recognizes potential early in the development of play and began leasing back in 2002. As a result Continental is the largest producer and controls the largest acreage position in the Williston Bakken play today, with approximately 487,000 net acres under lease. And we continue to build our position with 66,000 of acres added so far this year.

Continental is also one of the most active operators participating in one-third of the 74 Bakken wells currently drilling in the play.

We will be increasing that count to 12 in May and 13 during the third quarter with the additional rigs being deployed in North Dakota. There are also three additional rigs operated by ConocoPhillips that are drilling on the company's behalf within the 50-50 area of mutual interest in North Dakota.

Drilling results had been inline with our expected average recovery of 300 Mboe gross from our 320 acre infilled and 640 tri-lateral drilling in Montana as well as our 1,280-acre drilling along with Nesson Anticline in North Dakota.

During the quarter, we completed 18 gross, 8.1 net wells. And as detailed in the press release, you can see some of our more recent completions with 7-day initial production rate ranging from 348 to 609 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The average 7-day initial production rate for all wells completed so far this year has been 340 barrels equivalent per day.


Whiting Petroleum Q1 Earnings Call transcript

[Whiting] continues to generate excellent results from our Bakken drilling program in North Dakota where we recently brought in the Maynard Uran Trust No. 11-24 with an initial production rate of 2,132 BOEs per day. We own an 84% working interest and a 68% net revenue interest in this well.

Turning to our Bakken play, our net production from the middle Bakken formation in the Sanish and Parshall fields of North Dakota, totaled 3,344 barrels of oil per day during the first quarter of 2008. This represents a 92% increase in that same volume number over the fourth quarter of 2007. Net production from these fields in March rose to 4,153 barrels of oil per day or 9.9% of March's 41,800 BOEs per day.

In our Sanish field, in Montreal County, we completed the Maynard Uran Trust 11-24H on April 23, flowing 1,923 barrels of oil and 1.3 million cubic feet of gas per day from the Middle Bakken formation at a vertical depth of approximately 10,300 feet. On an equivalent basis, this equates to the previously stated 2,132 BOEs per day.

The triple lateral was drilled on a 1,280 acre spacing unit and penetrated more than 20,000 feet of horizontal pay. Whiting holds an 84% working interest and 68% net revenue interest in this new producer and of course we are the operator. We are currently drilling or completing 6 wells in the Sanish field, 4 operated, 2 non-operated, and one well is waiting for the lateral to be drilled.

We are also completing a 100% working interest well in the northern portion of the neighboring Parshall field. This well is known as the Lee State 44-16H well. We expect to have as many as 9 rigs working in the area by year-end 2008.

In 2008, we plan to drill approximately 36 operated wells in the Sanish with an average working interest of 81%. We expect most of these to be single-lateral wells drilled on 1,280-acre spacing units. Ultimately, we may drill two single-lateral wells per 1,280-acre spacing unit. Along with some potential in-fill drilling, we estimate we could have up to 230 total well locations in the Sanish field. Our net production in the Sanish field alone in March 2008 averaged 1,175 barrels of oil per day.


Well search by company name

Petrobank Energy & Company NPV PBG.TO is a good investment for Saskatchewan's part of the Bakken [Crescent Point and Tristar are also succeeding in Saskatchewan's Bakken oil]

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

Detailed presentations on the North Dakota Bakken oilfields

It is about 29000 bopd from the totals of initial production for North Dakota.
I need to weed out some of the red river numbers.

I will be adding highlights from the North Dakota presentations on the Bakken
Isopach maps etc...

Cumulative oil production by formation in North Dakota

Production by formation for 2007

The USGS assessment with 38 powerpoint slide discussion.

Read More...

April 26, 2008

Saskatchewan's portion of the Bakken oilfield, US plus Canada Bakken producton 131,000 bopd end of 2007

When Crescent Point first acquired Bakken lands and production in the Viewfield area near Stoughton in 2006, the initial estimate was 500 million to one billion barrels of oil in place.

Saskatchwen Bakken production is at least 56,000 barrels of oil per day (Just adding recent Crescent Point, Petrobank and Tristar numbers at the end of 2007). A lot of drilling activity in 2008 which has not been reported yet.
Tristar has 10,000 bopd production and has 650 net drilling locations Some other information on Tristar, the merger between two trusts: StarPoint Energy Trust and Acclaim

The MLI/NAL [Manufacturers Life Insurance/NAL Oil and Gas Trust (NOIGF.PK)] partnership acquired two private companies, Tiberius Exploration and Spear Exploration, for a total of $115 million. The new partnership receives 3,336 acres of land, 2.1 million barrels of P+P reserves and a current 925 barrels of daily production.

Petrobank drilling 135 wells in the Bakken by themselves and 38 wells with partners in 2008. Here is the end of 2007 report

Another important Petrobank forecast for oil production news: they expect get get approvals and have their THAI (superior Alberta oilsand project) approved and with its first 10,000-15,000 barrels of oil production started late 2009. It will be expanded to 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2010 through 2012.

The North Dakota and Montana Bakken production was 75,000 barrels of oil per day as of October 2007. So the combined Canada and USA Bakken numbers are at least 130,000 barrels of oil per day.

"Now we're saying four to five billion barrels of oil in place,'' Stangl said. "We're not saying what the reserves are; the reserves will be a percentage of that. But it gives you an idea how big the pool is."

While it remains to be seen how much of that oil is recoverable, Stangl said production from the Viewfield area alone has increased to about 30,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) from virtually nothing five years ago. I had covered Crescent Points latest production news.

Another major player in the Bakken is Petrobank Energy, which has about 12,000 BOPD of Bakken production in Saskatchewan. Petrobank gets about 150,000 barrels per well

The Calgary-based company plans to drill 150 wells and spend $400 million in the area this year alone.

Saskatchewan's Bakken play has produced about four million barrels of oil since production began in 2002.

FURTHER READING
Painted Pony is also a small company operating in Saskatechwans part of the Bakken

In January of 2008, Painted Pony (PPY-A/TSXV) expanded its exposure to the Bakken light oil play by executing an additional farm-in agreement allowing access to 3,280 gross (2,904 net) acres in the Midale area. Under the terms of the agreement, Painted Pony and its partner will pay 100% to earn 66.6% in the lands. Painted Pony will operate and have a 60% cost interest (to earn 40%) in the lands. The Company has committed to drill four wells on the farmin lands.

Painted Pony commenced an active operated exploration and development program in May 2007, targeting light, sweet oil in the Bakken formation in SE Saskatchewan. To date, Painted Pony has drilled a total of 10 (3.7 net) wells in Saskatchewan. Currently 5 (1.9 net) wells are producing and an additional 4 (1.3 net) wells are expected to be on production before the end of the first quarter of 2008. Production for December 2007 averaged 120 bbls/d, from 1.2 net Bakken formation wells and 0.5 net Midale zone wells. The Company currently has three drilling rigs employed drilling Bakken horizontal wells and plans to drill another 6 (2.4 net) wells by the end of March 2008. Painted Pony has a planned 40 well Bakken horizontal well drilling program for 2008.

At Kisbey, Painted Pony has drilled a total of 6 (1.7 net) horizontal Bakken oil wells to date. At Midale, 3 (1.5 net) horizontal Bakken wells have been drilled to date. Painted Pony estimates a drilling inventory of 100 plus potential drilling locations for Bakken oil within the approximately 59,000 net acres it has access to.

Western Canadian oil and gas well drilling is expected to decline overall by 22 per cent in 2008, Saskatchewan should see a six-per-cent increase, according to the latest forecast by the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC). Saskatchewan is forecasted to drill 3,600 oil and gas wells this year, up from about 3,400 last year, while Alberta is expected to see a decline of 31 per cent to 9,575 wells in 2008. B.C. is forecast to see a four-per-cent increase to 900 wells in 2008, while Manitoba is forecasted to have a five-per-cent increase to 350 wells.

Read More...

April 10, 2008

USGS Bakken oil study released, 3.65 billion barrels of oil


Assessment of Undiscovered Oil Resources in the Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation, Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota, 2008 Click on the pictures for larger view.

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.65 billion barrels of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota.


UPDATE: There is a separate North Dakota only study out performed by the State of North Dakota. North Dakota also publishes frequently updated reports on new well completions and production rates of these new wells

This is a lower figure than I had guessed. However, it is 24 times more than the 1995 estimate of 150 million barrels and 6 times more recent quotes of 600 million barrels. It increases the US assessment of October 2007 from 42 billion barrels to 45 billion barrels a 6.7% increase. This is a probable [50% probable] reserves number as the old proven [90% likely] reserve number was 21 billion barrels Proven reserves increases by almost 3 billion barrels. The 95% figure was 3063 million barrels of oil. The old proven reserves was 150 million barrels. So the US proven reserves number goes up to 24 billion barrels a 15% increase. Adding almost 2 years to the 12 year life of US reserves based on proven reserve calculations. The Bakken is now the largest probable reserve in the United States outside of Alaska. It is one third the size of Alaska's ANWR.

As technology improves I would expect the recovery rates to increase. The USGS projection is keeping pace with what is happening now. The technology and the business effort has to and I believe will increase to find ways to get more of what is there.

Just like eventually the shale in Colorado should be tapped for oil with underground heating. The Bakken oil in shale sandwhich should be easier to access than the Colorado shale without oil. When that happens then there will be new USGS reports to reflect that proven development. THe USGS is like Missouri (the show me state). First you have to show that a technique is working then the USGS ups the estimate.




Here is the fact sheet

The USGS press release 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate.

The Bakken Formation estimate is larger than all other current USGS oil assessments of the lower 48 states and is the largest "continuous" oil accumulation ever assessed by the USGS. A "continuous" oil accumulation means that the oil resource is dispersed throughout a geologic formation rather than existing as discrete, localized occurrences. The next largest "continuous" oil accumulation in the U.S. is in the Austin Chalk of Texas and Louisiana, with an undiscovered estimate of 1.0 billions of barrels of technically recoverable oil.

Five continuous assessment units (AU) were identified and assessed in the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana - the Elm Coulee-Billings Nose AU, the Central Basin-Poplar Dome AU, the Nesson-Little Knife Structural AU, the Eastern Expulsion Threshold AU, and the Northwest Expulsion Threshold AU.

At the time of the assessment, a limited number of wells have produced oil from three of the assessments units in Central Basin-Poplar Dome, Eastern Expulsion Threshold, and Northwest Expulsion Threshold.

The Elm Coulee oil field in Montana, discovered in 2000, has produced about 65 million barrels of the 105 million barrels of oil recovered from the Bakken Formation.



Link to the 6.5 minute podcast talking to the authors of the report.

The geological assessment results can be downloaded here

The page where a link to the full report should appear.

Welcome Instapundit readers.

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FURTHER READING
Update:
UPDATE: Bakken in the context of the world's oil megaprojects. About 7 million barrels per day being added in 2008 and 2009 from about 50 projects per year.

For context, I have an article that reviews the largest new oil production that will be starting in 2008. 23 will be more 100,000 barrels of oil per day or more If Bakken development and drilling success went really well then 100,000 barrels per day might be added on the US side and a similar amount on the Canadian side. Canada has 3 oilsand projects starting in 2008. The United states has the Thunder Horse deep sea oil project in the Gulf of Mexico, which should produce 1 billion barrels of oil with 250,000 barrels per day. The Bakken needs pipelines and refinery capacity to reach its full potential.

The US part of the Gulf of Mexico could be producing a daily yield of 800,000 bopd and accounting for 11 percent of US oil production by 2011. This would be follow up to the Jack2 test well by Chevron, which indicates 3-15 billion barrels of oil.

The assessment methodology of the USGS

USGS 1995 study and current decline rates

Estimates of bakken oil size and timing

Multistage fracturing horizontal drilling technique

Here is more details on how horizontal drilling and fracturing work

Bakken oil not fully valued

Bakken oil is highly profitable

A Saudi Arabia of oil in Bakken and Toquay formations in the USA and Canada

Other methods of resurrecting old oil wells. 67% of US oil is still in old wells and needs new technology to help recover it.

MDU resources has a couple of 800 barrel per day wells

Petrobank is a major player in the Bakken and also has the THAI and CAPRI drilling processes for the oilsands in Alberta [scaling up to a 100,000 barrel per day oilsand project over the next few years.

More bakken news from Google news

Read More...

April 09, 2008

Bakken news from around the internet on the eve of the USGS report

My guess at what the USGS will report as the recoverable oil in the Bakken formation tomorrow.

Well my guess was far to optimistic. The USGS 2008 figure was 3.65 billion barrels of oil for the US part of the Bakken formation.

Stackfrac horizontal drilling that is available today could recover up to 15% of the oil in parts of the formation. 75% of the formation is in the USA. 25% is in Canada. Not all parts of the formation would have 15% recovery, some might have 0-10%. Even though future technology could improve this number, that is not what will be projected. The high price of oil means that quick wells that produce for as little as 6-12 months could be profitably drilled.

I will say for the US portion 380 billion barrels of oil in place and 42 billion barrels of recoverable oil with todays technology. My guess is whole formation has 510 billion barrels of oil in place. 15 Billion barrels of recoverable oil in Canada.

Business Week reports on the Bakken and the imminent USGS report

Salon has brief coverage.

Bakken shale blog is of course solely focused on the Bakken

The Cost of Energy summarizes some of the data and reports and agrees there is a lot of oil in place but wants the USGS and other sources to pin down whether recoverable oil is 3% or 50% and then will not say how fast it will be developed

Classical values feels that the Bakken shows that capitalism beats fear mongers again

Resource Investor has a news roundup on Bakken

North Dakota Press release from 2006

FURTHER READING
USGS 1995 study and current decline rates

Estimates of bakken oil size and timing

Multistage fracturing horizontal drilling technique

Bakken oil not fully valued

Bakken oil is highly profitable

A Saudi Arabia of oil in Bakken and Toquay formations in the USA and Canada

More bakken news from Google news

Read More...

April 07, 2008

USGS Bakken oil study to be released Thursday, April 10, 2008

USGS Bakken recoverable oil study will be released thursday, April 10, 2008

Sen. Byron Dorgan says the U.S. Geological Survey is slated to release a study this week on the oil potential of the area known as the Bakken formation.

The shale formation encompasses some 25,000 square miles in North Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Dorgan says the study is to be released Thursday. He says it will estimate the amount of oil that is recoverable in the Bakken using current technology.

FURTHER READING
USGS 1995 study and current decline rates

Estimates of bakken oil size and timing

Multistage fracturing horizontal drilling technique

Bakken oil not fully valued

Bakken oil is highly profitable

A Saudi Arabia of oil in Bakken and Toquay formations in the USA and Canada

Read More...

April 03, 2008

Bakken oil from USGS 1995 and decline rates


Here is a picture of the geological layers and formations in the Williston basin (where a potential very large oil resource called the Bakken formation is located).

I have previously discussed the great potential of the Bakken oil resource.

This information is from the 1995 US Geological Survey (USGS) of the area.

A new USGS report is expected to be released this month (April, 2008).

UNCONVENTIONAL PLAYS, Continuous Type By James W. Schmoker (pages 9-17 of the 1995 USGS report)

3110. BAKKEN FAIRWAY PLAY
3111. BAKKEN INTERMEDIATE PLAY (HYPOTHETICAL)
3112. BAKKEN OUTLYING PLAY (HYPOTHETICAL)

Available evidence indicates that the Bakken Formation of Montana and North Dakota has generated hundreds of billions of barrels of oil. The overall Bakken unconventional continuous-type oil play is bounded on the north by the Canadian border (a political rather than geologic boundary), on the east, northwest, and west by thermally controlled limits of oil generation, and on the southwest by the Bakken subcrop. Within this area, the Bakken Formation is considered to be oil saturated. However, drilling and production data indicate that this entire area cannot be characterized by a single play probability, success ratio, and estimated ultimate recovery probability distribution. Consequently, the overall Bakken play is partitioned into three smaller plays--the Bakken Fairway (along the southwest subcrop), Bakken Intermediate, and Bakken Outlying Plays (3110, 3111, and 3112, respectively).



The Bakken (Spanish Pool) wells in the Antelope field area have produced about 12 million barrels of oil. As of July, 1993, 161 vertical Bakken wells (excluding the Spanish Pool) have produced 10,320,000 barrels of oil, and 202 horizontal wells have produced 12,233,000 barrels of oil. The Bakken Play is far from exhausted. Potential additions to oil reserves are measured in the hundreds of millions of barrels, in contrast to the tens of millions of barrels produced to date. Full realization of these potential reserve additions will probably depend upon improvements in technology, economics, and geologic understanding.


FURTHER READING
In 2007, North Dakota produced about 5 million barrels of oil from the Bakken oil formation (about 13500 barrels of oil per day), Montana about 50,000-60,000 barrels of oil per day and Saskatchewan about 30,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil per day.

There is a lot of drilling activity, but large scaling up of production will require new pipelines to be built and new refineries, which will take about five years.

Bakkenshale blog has a couple of useful tables that analyze the decline in production for wells that are being drilled in the Bakken oil formation.

The initial production (IP) decline chart with cumulative production thru January 2008 shows the average production over a longer period is about 60% of what is produced in the first month.


There is a discussion group on Bakken oil.

You need 18 to 24 months of production to get a good feel for what a well is going to ultimately produce.

It appears that if you average the first 2 to 3 months of "flush production", the typical well might be producing 50% of this average amount in 10 months to a year. After 15 to 18 months in appears production has leveled off at a rate of about 25-30% of the first 3 month average (with little regard to the IP rate). Hopefully the decline from this point forward will hold at about 10%-15% per year.

The obvious exception to the scenario is the Petro-Hunt USA 2D in the Charlson area. It's reported IP was 700 barrels per day. It's 16 month total production is 378,536 barrels and the most recent month production was 1000 barrels per day.

Other cautions on every well: did they stay "in zone" while drilling; did the zone get damaged while drilling; did the direction of the lateral section optimize natural fracturing, did the frac job get into the intended zones, and on and on. We'll all be wiser in a few years as this data base grows and learning curve goes higher.

This is a play brought on by technology: horizontal drilling and fracing. Both of these will only get better and we've just scratched the surface of the Middle-Bakken potential. Who knows where the Three Forks will take us.


Read More...

March 17, 2008

More estimates of Bakken oil size and timing

The Kiplinger Letter talks about the potential and timing of the Bakken oil play

An official government survey of the Bakken region's oil treasure trove is due out next month. The report is expected to play it very conservatively, because it will confine estimates to the amount of oil that likely can be produced profitably based on last year’s oil prices. It will also not take into account any further technological advances that might make it even easier to extract more oil.

"The Bakken is much like the enormous natural gas field that sat for many years under and around Dallas until people figured out the geology and how to drill it out economically," says Lucian Pugliaresi, president of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.

Figure on at least five years before the oil starts flowing in large volumes. A lot of work will need to be done first. In addition to installing drilling gear, firms must build supporting infrastructure, including roads, pipelines as well as new water, sewage and sanitation systems to meet the needs of workers and other area residents.

Note that the Bakken Play region is not an environmentally sensitive area similar to Alaskan tundra that has stymied much oil field development because of concerns about damage to the fragile environment. Still, some environmental protests are sure to emerge and may gum up development for a while, but they’re unlikely to stop oil production from the Bakken fields.


Bismarck, N.D. oil companies are now drilling beneath North Dakota's big lake.

Oil companies are using advanced horizontal drill techniques to tap crude oil and gas underneath Lake Sakakawea.

Read More...

March 06, 2008

Bakken oil update for Saskatchewan and Crescent Point

February's sale of oil and natural gas drilling rights in Saskatchewan have smashed the record for single-sale revenues, bringing in a whopping $197 million in bonus bids, more than double the previous record of $85 milllion set in 1994. The overall Bakken oil play is across North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Manitoba and Saskatchwan. It potentially is a Saudi Arabia of oil. Estimates for ultimate oil contained in the entire Bakken play range from 271 billion to 503 billion barrels, with a mean of 413 billion barrels of technically recoverable and irrecoverable oil. Saskatchwan could have 25% of that oil.

The focus of attention was the Bakken play, which accounted for more than 80 per cent of the $132 million in bonus bid revenues in the southeast. One company that has been at the forefront of the Bakken play is Crescent Point, a Calgary-based energy trust. "We're the largest (player in the Bakken) in land and production and facilities and drilling,'' said Crescent Point president and CEO Scott Saxberg.

And Crescent Point plans to make the Bakken the focus of its operations again this year. " In 2008, we've budgeted for Crescent Point about $175 million.'' Crescent Point is also 20-per-cent owner and operator of Shelter Bay Energy Inc., a privately held oil and gas company, which plans to spend up to $150 million in the Bakken play in Saskatchewan this year.


Extensive details on Crescent Point Energy Trust's activity in Saskatchewan to exploit the Bakken oil play

Crescent Point is currently the dominant producer in the southeast Saskatchewan Bakken resource play with more than 12,000 boe/d of production. The Trust also has the largest undeveloped land base in the play, with 360 net sections of undeveloped Bakken land and more than 1,000 net low risk Bakken drilling locations representing over 10 years of inventory.

Crescent Point believes the Viewfield Bakken play is the second largest conventional oil play ever discovered in western Canada, containing an estimated 3.0 billion barrels of Original Oil in Place ("OOIP"). Bakken oil reserves are high quality, consisting of 42 degree API light sweet oil and liquids rich associated gas. Crescent Point's third quarter 2007 Bakken netback was CDN$62.71 per boe.

As part of its commitment to Shelter Bay, Crescent Point will farmout to
the Company 22 net sections of its inventory of 360 net undeveloped Bakken
sections. Under the terms of the farmout agreement, Crescent Point will retain
interests in up to 50 percent of the lands and production, earning cash flow
and reserves on these sections and increasing the Trust's net asset value with
limited capital requirements. Shelter Bay is expected to drill up to 40 gross
wells on these farmin lands in 2008 and a further 40 gross locations in 2009.

Crescent Point is producing in excess of 33,500 boe/d [2008], mainly due to drilling and fracture stimulation success in the Bakken play.

Between the two companies, about 140 to 150 wells will be drilled in southeast Saskatchewan, and close to $400 million will be spent in the province, Saxberg said.


Another oil play that had attracted bidding aws the Shaunovan heavy oil play which has about 470 million barrels in place

Read More...

February 29, 2008

Multi-stage fracturing of horizontal wells in the Bakken


Packers Plus Energy Services Inc., Calgary-based company, says its unique technology can deliver precisely-controlled fracs along a horizontal wellbore at an affordable price.

"Without our StackFrac system, the Bakken formation in southeastern Saskatchewan would still be uneconomic for the most part," says Dan Themig, president of the seven-year-old private firm.

Producers had already attempted straightforward stimulation of open hole horizontal well bores, sometimes dubbed "Hail Mary" fracs. That tactic sometimes worked but more often the formation would crack mainly at its weakest point rather than along the entire wellbore. Overstimulation at one point not only limits the increase in oil or gas production but sometimes triggers water incursion into the well.



Horizontal well with controlled fractures along the length


An alternative approach was attempted on horizontal wells which had been cased with a production liner and then cemented. The wellbore would be segmented with bridge plugs, then stimulated through perforations in the steel liner. This technique required multiple coiled tubing trips. Fracing each segment of the wellbore involved rig up and rig down of the stimulation equipment. This type of operation may take weeks and generates expenses that frequently prove uneconomic. Although horizontal drilling was well established by the turn of the century, the oilpatch still hungered for a satisfactory horizontal stimulation method - quick, consistently cost-effective and repeatable on a large scale.

A StackFrac operation begins with the insertion of a steel liner into the well. The liner is segmented with tire-shaped rubber seals called packers, capable of sustaining differential pressure ratings of 10,000 psi at 400 degree Fahrenheit. (See the drawing above.) Between each pair of packers are one or more ports. Each port includes two features, an aperture and a specific diameter. The aperture, when
opened, permits frac fluid to flow into the annulus - the space between the liner and rock formation. Also, the internal diameter of each port is smaller than its neighbour, with the smallest diameter at the end of the liner (the importance of this feature will become clear in a moment).

Once the liner is fully in place, frac fluid is pumped through it into the well. After full circulation is achieved, the rubber packers are expanded. They can increase in size by 40% and will conform to hole irregularities like ovalities and washouts. A small ball is then inserted into the frac fluid and is pumped along the liner until it seats itself within the last port. (For example, the ball may be two
inches in diameter, the diameter of the final port a half inch smaller.) As pressure rises against the seated ball, the adjacent port aperture opens and frac fluid flows into that "stage" or segment of the wellbore. The fracturing or rock cracking process is sometimes tracked with microseismic gear to ensure that it's effective.

When the bottom segment of the well has been fraced, the crew will inject a slightly larger ball into the well, which will seal and open the next port. The process will be repeated until the entire wellbore has been stimulated. Acidizing can also be handled through the ports. Well sections not worth stimulating can be passed by. Each stage can be production-tested individually if desired. Frac design can be
tailored to avoid overstressing any section of the wellbore, greatly reducing the risk of water incursion. If water does invade a portion of the wellbore, that stage can be sealed off. The liner is left in place and, if appropriate, can be designed for use in further downhole operations.

To date, the record TVD (true vertical depth) is more than 15,000 feet and the deepest well has been more than 25,000 feet MD (measured depth). Themig is confident that 30,000 feet will be manageable within six months.

Despite mounting successes across the Western Sedimentary Basin as well as the United States, the novel technology didn't make much splash until two years ago. That's when Petrobank began applying it in the Saskatchewan Bakken. Unstimulated, a Bakken horizontal well typically makes 10 to 30 barrels per day, hardly an economic return for an expenditure of $1.2 million. When stimulated using earlier
technologies, however, water cuts routinely jumped from near nothing to 70% of total production. StackFrac enabled Petrobank to stimulate oil flow with minimal additional water, which transformed the Bakken into Canada's hottest oil play.


FURTHER READING
Powerpoint presentation on the Stackfrac drilling technique

Cased hole StackFrac

Read More...

February 24, 2008

Barrons covers Bakken oil, says not fully valued in oil stocks

Barrons (one of the leading financial newspapers) has an article about the Bakken Oil in North Dakota

I have had five articles on Bakken oil starting with this one This blog gave its readers a one month head start on Bakken oil.

Barrons Kopin Tan says:

The Bakken is no longer an undiscovered gem: Exploration companies with local perches - including EOG Resources (EOG), Continental Resources (CLR), Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and Brigham Exploration (BEXP) span the market cap spectrum from big to small have seen their shares rise 44% to 85% over the past six months.


Those companies do not include the oil companies that are working the Saskatchewan, Canada side of the Bakken oil play.

Despite the stock spurt some see further upside in the longer term. "The newness of he [Bakken] play has analysts giving credence only to acreage tha has been drilled successfully" says David Morehead, a senior portfolio manager at the small hedge fund Highview Capital. "We do not believe the Street has fully valued the Bakken drilling that has already been permitted, let alone the acreage held in portfolios that has yet to be permitted and drilled"

Whiting has three successful wells at Lake Robinson. With its third well initially producing 2,530 barrels a day, 53% more than the second well. It plans to deill at least 30 wells here in 2008.


Continental is more leveraged to Bakken (36% of net assets), followed by Brigham 16% and EOG 11% and Whiting 11%.

Read More...

February 04, 2008

Marathon oil's Bakken play

During the fourth quarter of 2007, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of more than 70,000 net leasehold
acres in the Bakken Shale play in North Dakota.
The acreage brings Marathon’s total Bakken Shale leasehold to more than 320,000 net acres. Marathon currently has six rigs running in its Bakken program and ended 2007 with a net production rate of 2,600 boepd."

Marathon leased six new drill rigs specifically designed for piercing the Bakken shale formation. The formation is about 10,000 feet below surface and requires sophisticated techniques to fracture the oil bearing strata

Marathon had more than 200,000 acres under lease when it moved into North Dakota two years ago with plans to drill as many as 300 wells over the next several years.


FURTHER READING:
A Bakken Shale blog

Brigham Exploration has about 67000 acres Bakken formation and its first three wells are producing a total of 1000 bopd

Tristar is developing on the Saskatchewan part of the Bakken oil play.

Post the closing of the qcquisition of Private Southeast Saskatchewan Company Transactions, TriStar will have greater than 10,000 boepd of long life, light oil production in its Southeast Saskatchewan core area including a 100 percent working interest at Fertile. In addition, TriStar will have more than 1,175 (650 net) future development drilling locations for both conventional and Bakken light oil representing potential future capital expenditures net to TriStar of over $900 million, providing an extensive production and opportunity base which will not be affected by the recently announced royalty changes in Alberta. TriStar believes the Fertile pool has greater than 86 million barrels of original oil in place on both the Combined Lands and the Private Company 100 percent lands; less than 2 percent recovered to date.


Read More...