Showing posts with label airplanes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label airplanes. Show all posts

February 13, 2008

Ultimate airships from Warren Design Vision and others


Back in 1997, Mike deGyurky, a program manager at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), had a design for a giant blimp, perhaps a mile in length. With a cargo capacity of 50,000 tons or more.

Mike and others at JPL had the skytrain concept, which were a bunch of blimp "box cars" connected together for less drag and more fuel efficiency. The largest of the box car designs was about 45,000 tons of cargo. Updated designs would be even better now because they were depending on thin film material for the skin and for thin film solar cells for power. Both of those have seen a lot of improvement and more improvement is anticipated.

JPL was and is not in the business of building airships, but was directly connected to an institution that was; The California Institute of Technology (CalTech). CalTech had been involved in Zeppelin research during the early 1930's. Theodore von Karman, a professor of aerodynamics at CalTech and a person who had participated in airship research in Germany (including the construction of the Zeppelin "Los Angeles" as part of wartime reparations to the US.) had proposed high speed dirigibles in his autobiography . This connection was first noted by deGyurky.

There were a number of design questions that arose and a number of which remained unanswered at the time. Among them, how would the system be powered? Elements of the SkyTrain could be covered with new ultra light weight solar cells to the point of being completely solar powered. A conventionally fueled backup would be necessary for staging operations. The 1994 analysis showed that this would reduce the pure solar SkyTrain cruising speed to around 43 mph. [a proposed Skycat airship design should have a speed of 97mph. The old Zeppelin's had a maximum speed of about 65 mph, There is an Aeroscraft, hybrid airship, that has a top speed of 174 miles per hour.]


1994 analysis developed the concept in a simple minded comparative analysis of three prototypical airships, each autonomously powered and controlled, able to link and unlink to sibling cars at will.

The first SkyBoxCar analyzed was a small technology demonstrator. It was sized so that 50% of its buoyant capacity was used for lifting cargo. As a demonstrator, it would fly at relatively low altitudes and would be unable to take advantage of favorable clines in wind and solar irradiance. It would cruise at 31,000 feet at a speed of 30.7 miles per hour with a cargo capacity of 4000 pounds. It would be 125 feet long and would cost $2.5 million dollars.

The second SkyBoxCar analyzed corresponded to that of a Mack truck. It was sized to carry 45,000 pounds of payload. This increase in scale produced an efficiency increase to 74% compared to the 50% of its smaller sibling. It would cruise at 31,500 feet at a speed of approximately 43.4 mph. At 244 feet long it is four fifths the length of a football field. It would cost approximately $9,485,000.

In the interest of sheer immensity, a third SkyBoxCar was modeled with a cargo capacity 45,000 metric tons. This radical increase in size produces an efficiency increase to 98% compared to the 74% of its smaller sibling. Like its sibling however it would cruise at 33,500 feet at a speed of 43.4 mph. At 2900 feet long, it would be over half a mile in length and would cost a little over 1.3 billion dollars. A SkyBoxCar of this size violates the concept of bite-sized chunks, but is of academic interest because of its lifting efficiency and flight envelope.

"With a train of 50 airships, as opposed to 50 independent airships, you could realize perhaps a 50 [-98%] percent savings in energy, and the savings go up as the speed of travel increases.


Mass produced airships could have a projected cost of 10 cents per ton-mile, compared with the 40-to-50 cents per ton-mile charged by standard air carriers.


Skycat airship. A completed ship should be flying in 2008 and production models in early 2009.

If we had cheap carbon nanotubes [prices likely falling from $200/kg to $4/kg over the next few years] that were able to provide most of the strength to the macroscale and next generation solar cells, then Skycats that were made on the scale of the giant airships would be able to travel at 300-600mph and carry over one hundred thousand tons. Something that could make sense in the 2015-2025 timeframe.

P-791, an experimental aerostatic/aerodynamic hybrid airship developed by Lockheed-Martin corporation. The first flight of the P-791 was made on 31 January 2006. The P-791 appears to be essentially identical in design to the SkyCat design


The cancelled DARPA Walrus airship (500-1000 tons of cargo) whose work continues with Skycat and P-791.

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January 21, 2008

Cigarette size plasma jet powered UAVs

There is interesting progress being made to develop a nanoair vehicle that weighs less than 10 grams and is shorter than 3 inches. A promising design is using electricity and plasma jets.

plasma micro thruster UAV
Plasma micro thruster powered UAV the size of a cigarette

“It’s a new propulsion technology to be used by micro and nano-unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAV,” Jacob said. “By micro, we mean smaller than a foot, and by nano, we mean smaller than six inches.”

This is part of the DARPA nanoair vehicle program

The Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) Program will develop and demonstrate an extremely small (less than 7.5 cm), ultra-lightweight (less than 10 grams) air vehicle system with the potential to perform indoor and outdoor military missions.

Technical Area Figures of Merit -Phase I targets
1. Aerodynamic Performance and Airfoil/Wing/Rotor Design and Manufacture Develop computational aerodynamic modeling tools to design a high performance airfoil at a low Reynolds number.
Demonstrate reliable wing manufacturing principles and achieve wing loading of > 0.1 kg/m2.
Demonstrate airfoil section steady lift to drag capability over 8 at low Reynolds number (Re < 15,000).

2. Propulsion and Power Demonstrate system electrical power to mechanical transduction conversion efficiency of at least 20 percent. Demonstrate an ability to meet power requirements for a notional mission of 1 kilometer with a total hover time of over one minute.



19 page pdf, Santhanakrishnan, A. and Jacob, J.D., “On Plasma Synthetic Jet Actuators,”
Plasma actuators, also known as dielectric barrier discharge actuators (or OAUGDPTM, one atmosphere uniform glow discharge plasma1) typically refer to an asymmetric arrangement of two electrodes separated by dielectric material. Back in Jan 2006 they were creating 10,000 pulses of 1 m/s jets.

FURTHER READING
Hydrodynamics & Aerodynamics Laboratory at Oklahoma State University is working on novel applications of fluid mechanics, particularly to aerospace, including flow control, UAV design, and bio-fluid mechanics.

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December 17, 2007

Chemical Pulse detonation engines

Pulse detonation engines (PDE) can achieve a maximum of 50% efficiency verus 30% for conventional jet engines Pratt & Whitney and General Electric now have active PDE research programs in an attempt to commercialize the designs with high pulse rates of 50-100 times per second to allow for less vibration. Some of the top scientists and engineers in the field say that with the right economic incentives and a few well-placed technology leaps, they could get to a flight-ready system in five years. (Air and Space magazine sept 2007). They are 3 to 4 on the technology readiness scale (working in the lab).

Pulse-detonation engines could push aviation into a new age, leading to superefficient subsonic jetliners, cheaper suborbital flight and more affordable space access.

There is a lengthy article at Air and Space Magazine on pulse detonation

The pace of current research and development points the way to three phases of pulse detonation engine technology, each a bit more complex than the one preceding it.

The first phase could be called the “pure PDE”: Essentially it focuses on developing the detonation tube, which would power a very-high-speed, air-breathing missile. In this application, engineers and scientists can punt on two of the biggest technology problems—life, or the durability of the system, and noise. The missile has to fly only once, so long life for the metals or components is not a concern. And at the high speeds—around Mach 6—and altitudes in which the missile would operate, less noise is also moot. This is the area in which Adroit Systems, and later Pratt & Whitney, made the most strides. It was their machine that would have been flown on NASA’s F-15B.

The next phase could involve using pulse detonation engines to address another pressing issue in combustion: afterburners for fighter aircraft. Today’s fighter engines simply spray aerosolized fuel into a long tube aft of the turbine section, literally dumping extra fuel-air mixture into the hot gas stream for a brief extra kick of speed. Engineers think that if they add pulse detonation technology to a low-bypass-ratio turbine engine—the modern fighter jet engine—they can get the efficiency benefit of pressurized, shockwave combustion. It’s relatively simple because the pulse detonation tube would be at the end of the engine and not in the middle of the turbo-machinery. Here again, life and noise are less of an issue than they might be in a commercial aircraft. Fighter pilots only fly on afterburner about five percent of the time, and anyone who has seen an airshow knows fighter jocks usually don’t worry about making a racket.

The third phase is where it gets most complicated, but is the one that may offer the biggest payoff: pulse detonation in the middle of the engine. Having a compressor upstream and a turbine downstream, says GE’s Dean, is a potential high-value payoff that keeps his company attracted to PDE development. A PDE-based combustor is one of the main areas of work for a young researcher on Dean’s team named Adam Rasheed. Rasheed is chronicling his work on a publicly available blog, “From Edison’s Desk” (www.grcblog.com). The publicity seems to have done him some good: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Technology Review magazine in 2005 named Rasheed one of under the age of 35.

Like everyone else, Rasheed has his eyes on a jet engine that burns five percent less fuel—an enormous leap compared with today’s fuel-saving techniques. In a world in which efficiency improvements of even 0.2 percent are considered a major breakthrough, “PDEs represent a possible game-changing technology that could revolutionize aerospace propulsion,” Rasheed writes. Even a one percent improvement would save hundreds of millions of dollars in fuel.the world’s top 35 researchers


FURTHER READING
29 page overview of pulse detonation engine technology written in 2004

Nuclear pulse rocket engines, which can go up to 10% of lightspeed primarily using technology that we have had for decades.

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Nasa taking fresh look at MHD ramjet/scramjet technology

NASA hypersonics expert Dr Isaiah Blankson believes that MHD energy-conversion in the intakes can take 30-40% of the energy, letting a turbine engine run at up to Mach 7. Past the MHD the air would slow from Mach 7 to Mach 3. This was the speed of the air going into engines of the Blackbird spyplanes. The Blackbird's conventional J-58 turbojets could keep burning up to Mach 3+ because of their special intakes, which slowed the intake air down for them using a retracting central spike. This would permit the reusable first stage of a future NASA two stage to orbit launcher to take off from a runway and get its piggyback orbiter well up into scramjet-type flight regimes, all using just one set of engines.


Scramjet from Popular Science. The first true reusable, free-flying scramjet could be Darpa's HTV-3X. It is also known as Blackswift. The HTV-3x could make its inaugural flight as early as 2012.


ISP efficiency of scramjets would be about 1000 at Mach 7.

The advantage of this proposal is that it seems like a simpler design than some other proposals for scramjets Scramjets promise to be better than rockets by not needing the 75% of the weight which is oxidizer, but designs need to simpler and not replace the oxidizer with a heavier and more expensive aircraft.

Reportedly, Blankson says extracting 30 to 40 per cent of the inflow energy would cut its speed by 50 to 75 per cent. That sounds counterintuitive, as kinetic energy is proportional to the square of velocity, but presumably a man with his background knows what he's on about. Potentially, a Mach 7 flow would slow to Mach 3 downstream of the MHD, and then a Blackbird type setup could handle it.

Blankson has a team working on the idea at NASA's Glenn Research Centre in Ohio, with various studies planned over the next two years. The hope is that the latest advances in high-voltage pulsed power systems might make feasible what hasn't been to date.

One does note, of course, that there would be other uses for standstill-to-Mach-7 airframes which ran on fairly ordinary fuel and potentially had huge amounts of spare electrical power. Blankson has worked with the military before, as it happens.

If his team does well, America might get hypersonic missiles, fighters or bombers - perhaps armed with directed-energy rayguns of some kind - well before it gets a reusable space launcher.


Over the next two years, NASA Glenn plans computational and experimental work aimed at sizing an MHD energy bypass engine capable of M7 to see if it is a feasible way of powering the air-breathing first stage of a reusable spaceplane.

FURTHER READING
Chemical pulse detonation engines might power scramjets and would be up to 66% more efficient than regular jet engines.

Nasa hypersonic research website is here

52 page hypersonic research proposal.

MHD generators can be 50% more efficient than conventional generators

Magnetohydrodynamics at wikipedia

MHD scramjet

The MHD ramjet/scramjet has some similarities with the Skylon concept. The MHD ramjet/scramjet could use reduced heat by slowing the air down to keep the weight of the vehicle from increasing. The Skylon concept uses the SABRE engine.

The pre-cooler is also the most aggressive and difficult part of the whole SABRE design. The mass of this heat exchanger is an order of magnitude better than has been achieved previously; however, experimental work has proved that this can be achieved. The experimental heat exchanger has achieved heat exchange of almost 1 GW/m³, believed to be a world record. Small sections of a real pre-cooler now exist.


Skylon concept: using some of the liquid hydrogen fuel to cool the air right at the inlet. The air is then burnt much like in a conventional jet. Because the air is cool at all speeds, the jet can be built of light alloys and the weight is roughly halved. Additionally, more fuel can be burnt at high speed. Beyond Mach 5.5, the air would still end up unusably hot, so the air inlet closes and the engine instead turns to burning the hydrogen with onboard liquid oxygen as in a normal rocket.


Alfin has a scramjet article which indicates that China likely has an extensive scramjet program

Popular Science discusses recent scramjet work. If it works, the HTV-3X will be the first reusable scramjet-powered plane. It will be able to take off from a runway, fly at speeds of up to Mach 6, land safely, and then do it again.

Read More...

November 12, 2007

Status of air taxi services

Here is the wikipedia list of very light jet (VLJ) operators. Many of the VLJ operators are starting "air taxi services".

Dayjet which is flying with 12 aircraft in Florida has an on demand service.

DayJet brings affordable, on-demand regional jet service to poorly connected businesses, communities and individuals across the Southeast. Today’s service launch directly links Gainesville to an initial four Florida DayPort™ airports, including Boca Raton, Lakeland, Pensacola and Tallahassee. Gainesville business travelers can now book just the seat they need aboard DayJet’s fleet of Eclipse 500™ very light jets (VLJs); customize travel according to their time and budget requirements; fly point-to-point between designated DayPort airports; and return home in a single day. Prices start at a modest premium to full-fare economy coach airfares.


The Eclipse 500 set the NAA speed record on October 7, 2007 for a flight from New York (Westchester) to Atlanta (Peachtree-Dekalb), with a new record time of one hour, 55 minutes, and eight seconds (1:55:08), averaging 393.32 miles per hour (341.79 knots). The previous record holder, a Cessna Citation Mustang set the record on September 22, 2007, flying the same route in two hours, 23 minutes, and 44 seconds (2:23:44), averaging 318.87 miles per hour (277.09 knots). The Eclipse 500 exceeded the previous record time by 20 percent, while using approximately 25 percent less fuel.


The financial times discusses the new air taxi business. Dayjet is aiming to serve 40 airports within three years. It is also studying an eventual launch of similar services in Europe.

The US transportation department is also looking at how VLJs could provide a radical solution to the declining airline service to rural communities.

Linear Air is aiming for whole-aircraft operations when its Eclipse 500s arrive, launching from a small airport near Boston and targeting bases near New York, Washington DC and then on the West Coast. Linear Air plans add 1000 and 300 VLJs within 5 years for its air taxi service. They plan to have a fleet of 30 VLJs within 2 years.

Pogo Air, a start-up with managers including former American Airlines chief Bob Crandall, is also eyeing the east coast corridor with Eclipse 500s.

Globe air is planning to have about 30 VLJ in 2008 and 2009. They are planning to fly in Austria in the summer of 2008.

Imagine Air is flying in Georgia and plan to have 25 VLJ by the summer of 2008.

FURTHER READING
There are a large number of additional VLJs that are likely to be certified from 2008-2010.

I had prediced in early 2006 that there would be Jet airtaxi services in 2006-2008. There are likely to be several hundred VLJs flying by the end of 2008. There could be over one thousand VLJs flying by the end of 2008. Air taxi services will be flying in several additional states and countries by the end of 2008.

It appears that by the end of 2008, Dayjet will be servicing as many as 40 airports.

Read More...

October 09, 2007

The 2010 Blimp plane

Hat Tip to Al Fin, for spotting a very interesting blimp plane hybrid

blimp plane
The Luxury blimp plane hybrid, Aeroscraft ML866

While 70% of the aerodynamic lift comes from helium, the remaining 30% is derived from its innovative “wing” shape. As well as being able to hover the aircraft will be capable of speeds up to 138 mph (0-222 kmh) and will operate at altitudes of up to 12,000 ft (3,657 m). and the massive 210 ft (64 m) long by 118 ft (36 m) wide by 56 ft (17 m) high structure will deliver a roomy 5000+ square feet of cabin space.

Aeros displayed a 1/48th scale model at this year’s NBAA show and hopes to begin airframe static testing of the rigid composite structure within months, with flight testing at the San Bernadino International Airport to follow as early as 2010. An additional series of commercially focussed Aeroscraft is also on the drawing board and will be scaled to payloads of up to 60 tons.

No exact pricing details are available as yet but reports suggest the tag will be under $40 million.


blimp plane executive floor plan
Blimp plane executive floor plan

blimp plane commercial floor plan
blimp plane commercial floor plan

blimp 60 ton payload cargo plane
60 ton payload blimp cargo plane

blimp plane bouyancy control
Blimp plane bouyancy control

blimp plane strong lightweight structure
blimp plane strong lightweight structure

FURTHER READING
Aeros is a world leading lighter-than-air, FAA-certified aircraft manufacturing company.

UPDATE:
I looked more closely at the site and they have some interesting innovations. A composite structure for more strength and less weight and an interesting device for dynamic control of bouyancy.

It seems later versions of this type of craft would be helped by wing in ground effect lift.
1. Even lighter and stronger materials. Carbon nanotubes etc..
2. cheap thin film solar for power systems
3. The wing lift capability seems like it could be designed to take advantage of wing in ground effect lift.


The Russian Ekranoplane, WIG plane, could lift over 100 tons of cargo

WIG plane/boats need to be big to get the most efficiency. Height off the ground to still get the extra left is determined by the size of the wing. Since this is also large it seems like it is well suited.


Boeing Pelican, WIG concept. Boeing's claimed that the Pelican would be capable of transporting 750 tons over 10,000 nm (18,530 km) when cruising in ground effect, but can carry the same load only 6,500 nm (12,045 km) when out of ground effect. The Pelican, the 500 ft (153 m) span vehicle would carry up to 2,800,000 lb (1,270,060 kg) of cargo while cruising as low as 20 ft (6 m) over water or up to 20,000 ft (6,100 m) over land. Unlike the Soviet concepts, the Pelican would not operate from water, but from conventional runways using a series of 76 wheels as landing gear.

Although the really big WIG vehicles designed to haul 5,000 tons would probably then swamp the blimp lifting effect. But vehicles with 60-2000 tons of lift seem like they would benefit from taking advantage of blimp lift, wing and wing in ground effect.

Read More...

August 17, 2007

Personal Air vehicle, Dayjet air taxi and ecodriving coach

Nasa crowns a Personal Air Vehicle prize winner


Pipistral Virus is a 50mpg two seater plane that costs $70,000.

Dayjet, air taxi service, is nearing a soft launch


Eclipse 500

By Aug 21, 2007, Dayjet will have 11 jets. They are close to launching the first per-seat, on-demand air-taxi operation. before DayJet can fly passengers, first it must conduct proving runs--to satisfy the Federal Aviation Administration. After the FAA approves this process, DayJet's EA-500s will be added to the company's air carrier certificate. "We expect to fly passengers at the end of August or the beginning of September," he said. "As we'll do a soft launch for now, we'll have a grand opening later--maybe in September.

Six passengers, max cruising speed of 375 knots, range of 1,280 nautical miles,, gets 11 mpg, and costs less than $200/hr to operate.




$99 digital fuel mizer

Aggressive Driving vs. Moderate Driving
Result: Major savings potential
The Cold Hard Facts: Up to 37 percent savings, average savings of 31 percent
Recommendation: Stop driving like a maniac. The fuel mizer device can help be your coach and provide feedback so that you can become a mroe fuel efficient driver.

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March 28, 2007

Wealthy consumption, airplanes and the environment

Future pundit brought up a concern about high consumption by a lot of rich people in the future causing environmental problems

I examine more of the statistics around the current situation. Previously I looked at what the projected wealth situation might look like.

Work is being done to reduce the environmental impact of planes. Molecular nanotechnology will both remove limits on the production of planes and large houses but will also enable the environmental impact to be greatly reduced.

I think limitations on construction pre-molecular manufacturing will keep the environmental impact of the very wealthy as a small fraction of overall consumption.

The wealthy are starting to buy commercial airline size jets This is still a tiny fraction 50-100 planes out of the 5000 boeing 737, 1050 boeing 757, 950 boeing 767, 1380 boeing 747 and the 4000 or so airbus planes.

The fairly wealthy who are not high consumption are described in the millionaire next door. The consumption pattern of many high net worth people with an average of 3.5 million is not as conspicuous as some who are very rich

Private jet owners have an average annual income of $9.2 million and a net worth of $89.3 million. They are 57 years old. And 70% of them are men.
Article profiling of private jet owners
Corporate jet article from USA today

11,000 business jets in worldwide fleet. This is a little less than the total number of 100+ person jets (boeing and airbus) used by the commercial airlines.

US Fuel consumption figures and projections from the FAA for private jets and planes

By piston-engine planes
2005: 75.1 million gallons.
2017: forecast: 86.5 million gallons.
Average annual growth rate: 1.2 percent.

By jet-engine planes
2005: 793.3 million gallons.
2017: forecast: 2,427.6 million gallons.
Average annual growth rate: 9.8 percent

Total fuel consumed
2005: 1,298.8 million gallons.
2017: estimate:3,065.3 million gallons.
Average annual growth rate: 7.4 percent.

Global usage of jet fuel is about 71 billion gallons/year. 19.5 billion gallons used by US airlines. Private planes use 6.6% of the total jet fuel.

A Forbes article about the booming private jet market. Private jets increased 35% in first half of 2006.

Small jets as an alternative to flying first class

The air taxi model: utilizing 5000 small airports in the USA (out of total 14,000 airports), not just the 30 big ones and 550 commercial ones. There will be a similar increase in the usage of small airports worldwide.


Further reading:
Nasa's vision of air taxi's
air taxi vision
Nasa's vision of small jet systems linking small airports
A study of the small air transportation program
The summary of the section examining impacts of the small air transportation system including environmental impacts.

Some research on rich people

Spending patterns for some of the rich

Very light jet market 2007-2016

This study predicts the delivery of 4,124 VLJs during 2007-2016 – which added to the 30 or so delivered in 2006 will put the global VLJ fleet at 4,154 aircraft. Some industry observers critical of the manufacturer-supplied growth rate contend that only two, or at best three, manufacturers will make it to market but the authors of this report are slightly more optimistic than this. We believe, in addition to the five key programmes featured in this report (A700, Cessna Mustang, Embraer Phenom 100, Diamond D-Jet and Eclipse 500) there will be other new entrants who succeed in producing aircraft for the personal jet market, and estimates for these are listed in the HondaJet/new entrant line, with an average aircraft sales price of $2.8 million, throughout the timeframe of the study – equivalent to the HondaJet reported retail price in 2010.

Here is a study for more environmentally benign aircraft

MIT looks at aviation and the environment.

A pdf with a government view of a vision for Air transportation in 2025

Read More...

January 30, 2007

Military defense may get a step up on offense

There are two developing technologies.

The millimeter radiation system for Active denial. The pain beam. It works out to 500+ meters. They are talking deployment in 2010. They are already in various field trials.

I wrote about theHPM (High Power Microwave) pulses--powerful enough to destroy enemy electronics--can be produced without the need for explosives or huge electrical generators. They are talking systems in the terawatt range to fry navy ships and 100 gigawatts to take out cruise missiles.

They could also make better sensor system on a fighter-size aircraft that could generate enough power, with a 1-ft. resolution, to see stealthy objects at 100 miles.

If Russia and China and other military powers can see through US stealth then a big US advantage will go away.

The next link talks about petawatt power, blowing apart protein molecules in a coluomb explosion.

So some observations and questions:
1. If the active denial system power was boosted. by say US, Russia and China (or any other major country) then it would easily be a longer range death to the unshielded beam. This would be a hinderance and would bog down attacking forces. If military personal in planes, on the ground have to be constantly shielded they will be slower. Can planes fly with the necessary shielding? Can high power versions of the active denial systems get enough range.

2. Combining the anti-electronics and anti-personal beams from large shielded ground installations combined with stealth defeating sensors would shift the balance of power significantly back towards defense. It is easier to make heavy beam shielding than it is to make it mobile for flight or vehicles.
I believe Russia and China are about as advanced as the US in terms of microwaves and millimeter wave technology. The Russians in the cold war were ahead in the high powered version.
I think the Chinese ability to hit the GPS satellites, possibly soon be able to see through stealth and these new beam technologies would mean that the aspects of recent significant US domination would be taken away. Fights against Russia and China would now be even more less likely to happen because they would be even longer slower slogs in the initial phases.

Human directed fighters and unmanned UAVS would both be vulnerable to one of the two beams How much can the effective range of the beams be increased ?

3. What happens in the molecular nanotechnology (MNT) world ? If you make bigger and more efficient beam projection arrays.
Could the right frequencies be manipulated to spot any MNT built UAVs. Could the MNT UAVs get hardened against the radiations?
Could the beams be used to detect and slow any MNT UAV attack to protect nuclear or some other deterrence. How would the nuclear electronics get protected to get payload to target?

Read More...

January 03, 2007

World Future Society predictions are wrong

The World Future Society makes forecasts which show that the forecasters do not seem to really understand some of the technology that they are forecasting.

Forecast #2: The era of the Cyborg is at hand. Researchers in Israel have fashioned a "bio-computer" using the DNA of living cells instead of silicon chips. This development may soon allow a computer to connect directly with a human brain.

Note: brain interfacing is happening but not with the DNA computer technology that they are referring to.

It is mixing sections of input, program DNA that then combine to combine to generate answers. It takes a week to prepare the strands. The main innovation was being able to use the energy from the DNA input strands to drive the process.

It's not like we're going to save the energy store of the world with this,'' said Ehud Shapiro, a computer scientist and the lead researcher of the Weizmann project. ''But lo and behold, we have been able to compute without using [additional] energy.''

From the nytimes
Like all current DNA computers, Dr. Shapiro's frugal model is mostly a laboratory curiosity. And there is skepticism, even from some DNA computer researchers, that today's demonstrations can be transformed into practical tools. But if that happens, Dr. Shapiro isn't hoping to create a rival to electronic computers. Instead he foresees new biological devices, including what he calls ''a doctor in the cell.''

Dr. Shapiro said it might be possible to program a DNA computer with medical knowledge and insert it into cells. Once there, it could track its host's condition and synthesize molecules to create drugs. ''But this is the ultimate vision,'' he added. ''The 50-year vision.
all the energy needed to push the process forward comes from a small amount of heat released from the input DNA after it is snipped by the reading and cutting enzyme. ''It provides both information and fuel,'' Dr. Shapiro said.

Of course, no DNA computer produces its results on a conventional monitor. Instead, results must be divined by using a electrophoretic gel to create the kind of black-and-white DNA charts that are displayed by expert witnesses at criminal trials.

The lack of an easy method for displaying DNA computing results is one reason that they are better suited to performing biological tasks rather than being developed as a rival to electronic computers, Dr. Shapiro said. While he acknowledged that his ''doctor in a cell'' scenario is a distant dream, he said it might be possible to develop some way to use the process for DNA sequencing.

From cnet
The designer molecule begins to sense ribonucleic acid (RNA), a similar molecule crucial to the replilcation of DNA, the chemical building block of genes. In particular, it is attracted to abnormal forms of RNA that are associated with lung or other types of cancer. The attraction occurs, because the sequence of the enzymes on the DNA strand corresponds to complementary sequences found on RNA from malignant cells.

Once detected, the designer molecule can then release chemicals to inhibit growth of malignant cells or even kill them.

They have not figured out how to make it work in the body. Let alone interface it with human brain cells


Forecast #3: By 2015, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt may emerge as hubs for high-speed, large-capacity supersonic planes. NASA's X-43A Scramjet recently flew at 7,000 mph (nearly ten times the speed of sound). These hyperspeed planes will whisk passengers across continents in the time it takes most people to drive to the airport.

The military will be fortunate to get hypersonic missiles working in that time frame. Probably another ten years to get fighter jets and bombers and then another ten before civilian aircraft might go hypersonic

In the linked to PDF, the project milestones are to try to put test vehicles together by about 2014. They have to work out materials and structures that go beyond a design that is strapped onto rocket and then lit up. they have to make something that can fly by itself. Integrating the different kinds of engines that work at different speeds. Hypersonic engines do not work at lower than 5 times of the speed of sound. what other engines are being integrated to get something that can fly repeatedly by itself ?
So first you get a missile that is self contained and only needs to fly once. then you get a fighter where it can fly repeatedly but where risk of failure is more ok Or maybe some kind of better space launch system. Then down the road you figure how to make it safe and efficient enough for commercial flight. Can you get one that can fly out of commericial airports? How about environmental , sound and all the other certifications? Those will take a decade or more especially on a new plane.

A crude hypersonic missile might be tested in 2008. carried aloft by plane and then started off by rocket before the hypersonic engine kicks in

Read More...

October 06, 2006

Superthread 100 times stronger than steel

Pointed out by colony worlds Superthread fibers, developed by Los Alamos scientist Yuntian Zhu, are 100 times stronger than steel (pound for pound for the same weight), tougher than diamonds, and roughly one-ten-thousandth of a human hair in diameter. This would be about 50 GPA.

Currently, Laboratory scientists, including Zhu, also of MPA-STC, are developing arrays of ultralong, super-strong, lightweight, double-walled carbon nanotubes. These arrays allow the nanotubes to be spun into fibers. Given the impressive results obtained for early prototype fibers, the Laboratory and CNT Tech entered into an exclusive license agreement.

Within six months, CNT Tech plans to be making 1 kilogram per day of SuperThread yarn. Over the next fifteen months, CNT Tech will scale up production of the nanotubes in its new laboratory at the Los Alamos Research Park. It will begin spinning the ultrastrong carbon-nanotube fiber on a custom-designed, computer-controlled spinning machine developed by the world's foremost experts in the fields of textile manufacturing, and machine construction.


Colony worlds notes that Dr Bradley Edwards of Carbon Designs Inc thinks the date for the liftport roadmap to a space elevator is overly pessimistic. The roadmap does not take into account key developments like this that have already happened.

Getting significant bulk production of 50 GPA strength material would be a major development. Getting this stronger material into planes, space vehicles, cars, cridges, armor etc...

Theoretical article on using condensed multi-wall carbon nanotubes to get to 48.5GPA

Multiwalled carbon nanotubes have a strength of 63GPA one at a time The trouble has been getting that strength into bulk materials.

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August 06, 2006

Transhuman: Iron Man versus Borg versus created X-men

Many groups are concerned about transhumanism and nanotechnology. They are worried for various reasons about people being made stronger, smarter and with more capability than others. They fear the creation of supermen who will dominate others or that the act of creating superhuman abilities would be a transgression against religion.

I think it would be helpful to analyze what capabilities make sense to put into the body like Star Treks Borg, (cyborgs like Robocop or Steve Austin, the 6 million dollar man), put into the cells and genetic code (like artificial X-men) and what makes sense to leave as a wearable tools (like the comic book character Iron Man).


We can also analyze what enhancements might make a difference or are flashy but mostly irrelevent. One of the main aspects of relevance would be difference in productivity and ability to earn a living of future Iron men versus future x-men versus future Borg. Note: there is no reason for the eventual appearance of any enhancement architecture to be as obvious as the fictional examples.

The analysis can also be stated as: when would it be advantageous to get closer to our technology ? When can we do just fine using technology but not becoming our technology?

One of the things that was mentioned was night vision.

Now: We have night vision goggles now which you can buy on Ebay and other places.

There is limited advantage or difference for this capability. There is less reason to out it in the body versus using the tools.

Strength enhancement.
Mundane Iron Man Now: We have fork lifts and cranes.
Mundane X-men Now: We have steroids, exercise and supplements (creatine, protein powders etc...). In mice they have modified genetics for strength enhancement and I expect that it will work on humans.
More exotic: We are making exoskeletons. (more advanced Iron man and Manga style robotech/Gundam). We will perfect the genetic modifications and the techniques used to deliver those modifications.

Utility: strength helps in various situations. The main reasons for doing it are for general resilience and for an "always on" ease of use. Good exoskeletons would limit the advantage for genetically modifications in this area.

If you can make modifications that are as safe as supplements and with health benefits instead of risks, then why would you not do it? The advantage to be able to lift something is irrelevant because you could get an easily available tool or exoskeleton to help you.

Speed enhancement:
Mundane now: segways, bikes, cars and planes.
Exotic now: exoskeletons.

Utility: Same as for strength. You can do it but the advantages will be limited. There would be an advantage for enhancing reflexes and reaction times. Reaction times would benefit from sensory enhancements. Being able to spot and identify targets sooner.

Intelligence enhancement:
Mundane now: computers. PCs, iPods, there are wearable computers and displays that go directly to the eye.
Exotic now: There is Brain gate and other close interfaces between machine and brain. Many of those are non-invasive.
Utility: The difference between invasive and non-invasive is one of bandwidth and communication speed. There are also advantages to integrated control.
Productivity: This is one enhancement that could have a substantial productivity variance depending upon architecture.
This is one area where getting optimum performance irregardless of architecture will make a difference.

Life extension and regeneration:
Mundane now: drugs, vaccines, surgery, hearing aids, mechanical hearts, prosthetics, enhanced prosthetics, biosensors
Controversial now and soon: stem cells, gene therapy, iRNA
This is another where the genetic and invasive modifications are required.

It would make sense to modify our biology to make us more resistent to radiation, disease and better adapted to space and other conditions.

Uploading/mind transfer:
There are questions as to how well this would work in terms of consciousness. Eventually this architecture could diverge from the cyborg, genetic enhancement capabilities. The communication between biology and the computer and whether upgrading hybrid biology would be slower than pure computer equipment would be factors in whether architectures diverge in performance.

Related Articles and more reading:
Article in Slate talking about transhumanism

Transhuman ethics article from Reason

Transhuman reading list

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July 26, 2006

Follow up: Printing UAVs, 3D printing industry

Open the future and CRnano have pointed out the leading edge of the shift in military capability resulting from cheap yet capable UAVs. This site also noted the importance of rapid prototyping (RP) techniques being used to build capable end product. The new application is called Rapid Manufacturing.

From the 2006 wohler associates RP industry report,
- Rapid Manufacturing is 9.6% of the activity of Rapid Prototyping.
- 42% of installed systems are in the USA, 29.6% in Asia, 25.5% is Europe, 2.6% is other
- 5254 machines installed at the end of 2005, expected growth to 15,000 by 2010
- Rapid Manufacturing is inferior to established processes, blow molding, die casting, injection molding, sand casting, investment casting etc...
- Rapid Manufacturing is an additive process and does not require tooling

Rapid Manufacturing can become more useful with low cost integration with processes that can provide more flexibility and by increasing the range of materials.

Something to take note of. Almost all of the leading work and almost all of the leading capabilities in the enabling technology is in the US or with its close allies. China and Russia being the main exceptions.

best aeronautics - USA, Europe, Russia
printer technology - USA, (HP in particular)
Advanced Lasers - USA, europe, russia
making planes from mostly composites- USA, boeing (this is not trivial, notice the delays and problems that occur here.), Europe, Russia

3D printing industry is covered at Castle Island. Mostly US companies, but also leaders in europe and Israel. Some companies in Japan, Korea, China and Singapore

A table that compares different technology and companies is here

3D printing (developed at MIT), laser sintering, Laser engineered net shaping

Current limitations and performance of RP are summarized

Having more capital and a technological lead that is probably widening still matters.

Everyone has guns and bombs but those with better guns, gear and precision bombs win. Everyone will have UAVs but they will not equal either (quality and/or quantity).


Related reading:
Reprap (Replicating Rapid-Prototyper) information

Z Corp, one of the leading RP companies

German laser sintering company

Another list of RP companies and associations and other links

RP industry reports from Wohler associates. Need to register

Rapid Manufacturing Research Group, UK

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July 17, 2006

Free space optical communications from high altiute balloons and airships could go over 1.25Gbps

They have performed high altitude balloon communication trials in Sweden in 2005. They had supported data rates of 11Mbit/s and throughputs up to 4Mbit/s, using WiFi (IEEE802.11b), at distances ranging up to 60km. Dr David Grace, the project's principal scientific officer said: "Proving the ability to operate a high data rate link from a moving stratospheric balloon is a critical step in moving towards the longer term aim of providing data rates of 120Mbits/s." DLR, a German partner, performed the first known optical 1.25 Gbit/s downlink from the stratosphere to an optical receiver on the ground over a link distance of up to 64 km. The very high data rates offered by free space optical communications will be used for future inter platform and platform to satellite backhaul links.

The CAPANINA project, which uses balloons, airships or unmanned solar-powered planes as high-altitude platforms (HAPs) to relay wireless and optical communications, is due to finish its main research at the end of October. The consortium, drawn from Europe and Japan, have demonstrated how the system could bring low-cost broadband connections to remote areas and even to high-speed trains. It promises data rates 2,000 times faster than via a traditional modem and 100 times faster than today's 'wired' ADSL broadband.

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June 08, 2006

other tech: New Sensor Technology Detects Chemical, Biological, Nuclear And Explosive Materials

There has been an advance in detecting nuclear operations from a distance of 9 kilometers (30,000 feet, the height that planes often fly) using millimeter radar and terahertz radiation which could be important in determining targets in Iran. There is also new fast detection at a distance of chemicals and explosives, which is clearly useful for anti-terrorism.

The potential of a militarily useful remote nuke and nuclear materials detection means that the US could first strike N Korea or Iran (or anyone else for that matter). If there detector could 100% identify nuclear weapons and material (even with false positives of 10 times.) that would be good enough.
The opposition response would be to arms race and to get and distribute nuclear material to every location maybe not the weaponized uranium but the pre-centrifuged stuff. If the US could tell those apart with reasonable accuracy. The planes/drones with detectors fly over at 9 km height and drop bombs and missiles, taking out every positive reading. They can check the quality of the detectors against their own weapons stockpile.

Successful version of this tech means the US lets you stay in the nuclear club at their discretion.

If you have thousands of weapons, (Soviets and China, UK, France) where you could counter punch as the first strike is launching. Those with many weapons would stay in the club. But if you just got a handful of weapons it would be game over.

A good remote nuclear weapons/weapons material detector = first strike target finder.

Engineers at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory, using an emerging sensing technology, have developed a suite of sensors for national security applications that can quickly and effectively detect chemical, biological, nuclear and explosive materials. Argonne engineers have successfully performed the first-ever remote detection of chemicals and identification of unique explosives spectra using a spectroscopic technique that uses the properties of the millimeter/terahertz frequencies between microwave and infrared on the electromagnetic spectrum. The researchers used this technique to detect spectral "fingerprints" that uniquely identify explosives and chemicals.

They accomplished three important goals:

* Detected and measured poison gas precursors 60 meters away in the Nevada Test Site to an accuracy of 10 parts per million using active sensing.
* Identified chemicals related to defense applications, including nuclear weapons, from 600 meters away using passive sensing at the Nevada Test Site.
* Built a system to identify the spectral fingerprints of trace levels of explosives, including DNT, TNT, PETN, RDX and plastics explosives semtex and C-4.

Operating at frequencies between 0.1 and 10 terahertz, the sensitivity is four to five orders of magnitude higher and imaging resolution is 100 to 300 times more than possible at microwave frequencies.

To remotely detect radiation from nuclear accidents or reactor operations, Argonne researchers are testing millimeter-wave radars and developing models to detect and interpret radiation-induced effects in air that cause radar reflection and scattering. Preliminary results of tests, in collaboration with AOZT Finn-Trade of St. Peterspurg, Russia, with instruments located 9 km from a nuclear power plant showed clear differences between when the plant was operating and when it was idling.

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May 26, 2006

Invisibility part II

Anyone making such a cloak would have to choose what form of radiation one wanted invisibility from. The invisibility would work both ways--a person hidden from the visible light spectrum would have to use infrared or sonar or microwaves to see out. Note: I believe they could leave a pinhole in the visible spectrum which would be difficult to spot that someone inside could use to look out.

More technical details at the MIT technology review The cloaking effect depends on a material's "refractive index," or its ability to influence the direction of light that passes through it. Light tends to prefer the quickest route between two points, which is normally a straight line. With metamaterials, however, the quickest path can be one that bends around an object.

But bending light is just one of the requirements for cloaking. "You have to return the light to the same path it was pursuing before it hit the cloak; otherwise it casts a shadow," says Pendry. Similarly, when light enters the cloak, it must not be reflected. "One way to think about it is that this material gives the appearance of being like space," says Smith, in that space can bend light and also has no reflection.

"It's a breakthrough," says George Eleftheriades, an expert in metamaterials at the University of Toronto. However, he says, there is a limitation: "It won't work for every frequency."

Indeed current materials are capable of redirecting only microwaves, which means the cloaking device Smith and Schurig are developing will work only against radar or other microwave emitters. While this is likely to prove useful for future stealth planes, we are still at least a decade away from cloaking objects from visible light.

It will be difficult to cover the whole visible spectrum. An object would be encased in a shell of metamaterials and they would create an illusion akin to a mirage, said David Schurig of Duke University in North Carolina, who worked on the second report. The light rays end up behind the object as if they had traveled in a straight line.

Cloaking could be used on space probes to protect sensitive equipment from cosmic radiation.

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May 24, 2006

Challenges making bulk carbon nanotubes strong enough for a space elevator

Researcher predicts that carbon nanotubes will have trouble getting more than 30 GPa of strength Laboratory tests have shown that individual nanotubes can withstand an average of about 100 GPa, an unusual strength that comes courtesy of their crystalline structure. But if a nanotube is missing just one carbon atom, this can reduce its strength by as much as 30%. And a bulk material made from such tubes is even weaker. Most fibres made from nanotubes have so far had a strength much lower than 1 GPa. Using a mathematical model that he has devised himself, and which has been tested by predicting the strength of materials such as nano-crystalline diamond, Pugno calculates that large defects will unavoidably bring a cable's strength below about 30 GPa.

Bradley Edwards, whose space elevator feasibility study for NASA and a subsequent book have made him the most frequent spokesman for the space elevator project. Edwards, who is president and founder of the Dallas-based company Carbon Designs, shrugs off the controversy, and says that with adequate funding he could make cables at or above the 62-GPa benchmark in just three years. He suggests that the key step is carefully spinning long nanotubes together in a close-packed way, which encourages cooperative frictional forces that make the strengths of individual nanotubes less crucial.

I think the space pier concept is superior. Achieving the goal of very cheap launches to orbit without having and maintaining the maximum material strength. A space pier only needs 5 GPa strength material. M5 Fiber is that is already strong enough for a space pier

Space elevators on the moon and mars would still be easy. Long skyhooks could be made to take cargo from space planes going to 100km.
High Altiture Long Endurance platforms can be made better wi