Amory Lovins wrote the nuclear illusion which looks at the data from 2000 forward or 1990 forward but he claims a decades long (plural so at least two decades and Lovins has been claiming nuclear collapse since the 1970s) collapse of nuclear energy.
Since 1980, nuclear power TWH has increased by over 400%. So Amory Lovins is wrong about nuclear energy being a collapsing industry.
The charts that Lovins uses are only looking at 2000 forward or look at "new additions" when the bulk of nuclear power generation increases was from operating improvement and uprates to existing reactors.
The "micropower" is mostly diesel, biomass and natural gas of small and big sizes. Natural gas has 4 deaths per TWH (Externe source). So 2500 Twh (to displace nuclear power) would be 10,000 deaths per year. The diesel (oil) portion is 35 deaths per TWH. The biomass about 10 deaths per TWH (35,000 deaths per year if diesel was the main source). The blended rate of deaths per TWH from micropower is over 12 deaths per TWH. Far higher than the 0.65 deaths per TWH calculated by Externe for nuclear power. Even if the micropower deaths per TWH was cut in half for lower distribution losses the number is still far higher. Diesel and natural gas are not renewable. Over 75% of the power that Lovins is talking about is diesel, natural gas and biomass.
Deaths per TWH for all energy sources
Natural gas is not renewable. So is Lovins advocating an increase of more than double the US military deaths of the 5+ years of the Iraq war every year from more natural gas air pollution and other causes ?
All energy build costs went up with the increase in commodity prices (steel, concrete, oil)
There are wind turbine shortages and backorders for several years for the large efficient turbines.
Nuclear operating costs and efficiency are on continuing to the improvements that they have made for decades.
Laser uranium enrichment 3-10 times cheaper and more efficient.
Existing nuclear power plants are getting 20 year extensions and power uprates.
MIT/Westinghouse commercializing new 50% power uprates for annular fuel.
FURTHER READING
Further analysis of deaths per TWH
Nuclear power build in China and the rest of the world
Feed in tariffs subsidies for renewables
Energy costs with externalities
Staffing an expanding nuclear industry
constructing a lot of nuclear power is not supply constrained
Nuclear forging bottleneck is being addressed
Idaho national lab plan to extend nuclear plants to 80 years of operation and increase build in the USA to over 10 reactors per year
New smaller and mass produced reactors will address the larger finance issues
Mass producable uranium hydride reactors
The Fuji molten salt reactor
THE DEBATES ON NUCLEAR ILLUSION
David Bradish critique part 1 vs Nuclear illusion
David Bradish critique part 2 vs Nuclear illusion
David Bradish critique part 3 vs Nuclear illusion
David Bradish critique part 4 vs Nuclear illusion
Gristmill rebuttal part one
Gristmill/Lovins rebuttal part 2
Amory Lovins supports "clean coal"
Amory Lovins fossil fuel apologist
June 25, 2008
Amory Lovins distorts nuclear energy and promotes air pollution
April 22, 2008
EPA confirms the link between Ozone Air (smog) Pollution and Premature Death
Short-term exposure to current levels of ozone in many areas is likely to contribute to premature deaths, says a new National Research Council report, which adds that the evidence is strong enough that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should include ozone-related mortality in health-benefit analyses related to future ozone standards.
The Full text of the report, Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution, is here
The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has tried to reduce controls on air pollution and argued against linking pollution with early deaths. One case involves the EPA's decision last month to tighten the ozone health standard and reduce the allowable air concentration. The OMB argued in the cost-benefit analysis that there was "considerable uncertainty" in the association between ozone levels and deaths. As a result, the EPA issued a cost-benefit range from an annual net societal cost of $20 billion to a savings of $23 billion, depending largely on whether the lives saved from ozone-related premature deaths are considered. Now that cost benefit would be $23 billion because of $3 billion in ozone related premature deaths.
Environmentalists and health advocates have long argued that multiple health studies suggest exposure to smoggy air not only aggravates respiratory problems, but also causes thousands of annual deaths.
October 11, 2007
Fossil Fuel air pollution in Europe shown to shorten life expectency of all Europeans
This from the report, 'Europe's environment — The fourth assessment', which was presented in Belgrade, Serbia, at the opening session of the sixth ministerial conference of the 'Environment for Europe' process held under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE).
The latest in a series of assessments of the pan-European environment published by the EEA over the past 15 years, the report assesses environmental progress in 53 countries — an area with a total population of more than 870 million people. The region includes: Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA), South East Europe (SEE), as well as Western and Central Europe (WCE).
In the Russian Federation, an assessment of the impact of outdoor air pollution on public health, based on the 1993 and 1998 monitoring data, showed that 15–17 % of total annual mortality (up to 219 000–233 000 premature deaths) might be caused by fine particles (Reshetin and Kazazyan,2004)..
In Ukraine and the Russian Federation, estimates of health losses from urban air pollution based on TSP monitoring data in Ukraine indicated considerable health and mortality consequences. In Ukraine, the low (conservative) estimate was 27 000 excess
deaths annually, and for the Russian Federation the estimate was about 85 000 excess deaths (Strukova et al., 2006).
As estimated under Transport Health and Environment Pan-European Programme (THE PEP),
air pollution from road transport affects the health of about 10–15 million urban Russian residents. In the large city centres, road transport may account for more than 80 % of total air emissions. In 2002, the average annual concentrations of harmful pollutants exceeded maximum permissible levels in 201 Russian cities, home to 61.7 % of the urban population. An estimated 22 000–28 000 additional deaths in
the Russian Federation were attributable to road transport-related emissions in people over the age of 30 (ECMT, 2004).
The WHO project 'Comparative Quantification of Health Risks' has estimated the health impacts of outdoor air pollution in major cities (population > 100 000 people) of the world grouped in 14 regions, including EUR-C, consisting mostly of
EECCA countries. The annual impact of air pollution by particulate matter for this region was estimated at 46 000 premature deaths and 320 000 years of life lost (WHO, 2004b).
Excess concentrations of ozone are thought to hasten the deaths of up to 20 000 people in the EU each year (Watkiss et al., 2005). Further, ozone is responsible for people vulnerable to its effects having to take medication for respiratory conditions
for a total of 30 million person-days a year. Some studies also suggest that long-term exposure to ozone reduces lung function growth in children
Achieving the lower levels of particulates (mainly from coal power plants and automobiles) would save thousands of lives per year
France which has 80% power from nuclear energy has superior air quality
the worse air quality is from particulates and ozone, then the more people die, the more money is lost (many billions per year) and the more the environment is destroyed
Targets for good public health for different kinds of air pollution, all of these things are mainly from coal power plants and automobiles and trucks
October 02, 2007
Chronic disease costs over 1 trillion per year to the US economy
The Milken institute has calculated the cost of the seven major chronic diseases and broken it down by state and projected those costs to 2023 by year and also to 2030 and 2050
The seven major diseases are:
Cancers: 10.6 million cases (3.6% percent of US population)
Diabetes: 13.7 (4.7%)
Heart Disease: 19.1 (6.6%)
Hypertension: 36.8 (12.6%)
Stroke: 2.4 (0.8%)
Mental Disorders: 30.3 (10.4%)
Pulmonary Conditions: 49.2 (16.9%)
Total Reported Cases: 162.2 million (55.8%)
United States Economic Impact 2003 (Annual Costs in billions)
Treatment Expenditures: $277.0B
Lost Productivity: $1,046.7B
Total Costs: $1,323.7B
Air quality, which is made worse by coal and oil use for energy and transportation, is a contributing risk factor
The projected impact on GDP by state from 2004 to 2050
the project life expectency of a 65 year old person by year and by state.
If we are able to cure those diseases or greatly reduce their occurence with infrastructure changes (getting rid of coal and oil usage) then we are looking at massive economic benefits in the United States and the world.
FURTHER READING:
Trillion mistakes from bad societal choices.
Better economy and budgets by getting rid of coal
August 28, 2007
Two chinese coal miners lived, 179 did not
The tale of two chinese coal miners who lived. Remember these are the two who lived while 179 others died We also recently had the 12 coal mining deaths in the United States.
The two who lived had to drink their own urine, eat coal and dig through 66 feet of dirt and coal.
How many nuclear energy deaths have there been this year ? Zero.
How about coal mining deaths in the last year ? 5000 to 10,000 worldwide.
How about nuclear energy deaths in the last ten years ? Zero.
How about coal mining deaths in the last ten year ? about 80,000 worldwide.
Many of those who die in coal mines do not die painlessly or instantly.
Many were likely trapped and suffered for days in failed efforts but were too deep to free themselves or for help to reach them in time.
Plus there are the air pollution deaths of about 1 million each year.
Many of those suffered from painful diseases before succumbing.
A lot of deaths and injuries for coal power versus almost none for nuclear power. IT also translates into a lot of human suffering.
For those who only care about animal suffering and deaths, like the Michael Vick and DMX dog fighting, coal kills thousands and millions of animals when mountain tops get blown off to reach coal. Almost the animals and trees in the destroyed forest are killed. There are some that also could be injured and live or injured and die.
So remember the starting point, two chinese miners suffered and struggled for 11 days and lived. Many others suffered and struggled and died.
Even the chemical "scrubbing" of air pollution generates more toxins in the ash
FURTHER READING:
International mine safety
Coal deaths per million tons
2005 coal production
PR China 2226 Mt
USA 951 Mt
India 398 Mt (avg about 150 deaths/year)
Australia 301 Mt
South Africa 240 Mt
Russia 222 Mt
Indonesia 140 Mt
China¹s total death toll from coal mining averages well over 5000 per year - official figures give
5300 in 2000
5670 in 2001
7200 in 2003
6027 in 2004
5,986 deaths in 2005
4,746 deaths in 2006
Ukraine's coal mine death toll is over two hundred per year
1999: 274
1998: 360
1995: 339
1992: 459
Coal mining in the Ukraine
Wikipedia on mining accidents
Coal fatalities by state from 1996 to 2007 from U.S. Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration.
All mining fatalities by state 1996 to 2007
Fatality stats for mining in the USA
Historical mining deaths and injuries by decade for the USA
Discussion of mine safety
[from a surface mining operation]. At mines in the U.S., we find that most fatal accidents on the surface relate to transportation. It could be trucks, front-end loaders, railway cars, belt conveyors, and similar equipment. There are many factors involved in these accidents. Some of the factors are equipment maintenance, roadway design, and training. Another important factor is visibility. In fact, restricted visibility factored into more than a hundred miners' deaths during a recent 10-year period in the U.S.
Successful evacuation in USA and Australia mines.
Part of the credit for that achievement almost certainly belongs to the Personal Emergency Device. How, you might ask, could the mine operator send a page to everyone under tons and feet of rock?
The key is that the system uses a fluctuating low frequency magnetic field to send messages instead of the electro-magnetic waves. This pager system seems to be a very promising example of new technology that can help to protect miners. Incidentally, it is a fine example of the value of international exchange. This unit was developed and originated in Australia.
So far the examples I have given are of mine safety. The other half of the picture we are concerned with is the occupational health issues. For example, consider a coal miner in Kentucky named Terry Howard. He operated a drill at a surface coal mine. Several years ago, during his prime working years, he developed breathing problems. His illness turned out to be silicosis, contracted from breathing the quartz dust that surrounded him when he drilled into the rock overburden.
Silicosis, as we all know, is an incurable disease and can get worse when the sick person is removed from further exposure. There is no cure for silicosis. Howard became totally disabled. His condition deteriorated rapidly and he died, leaving a widow and three school age children. He was only 45 years old.
In the U.S. we have had health regulations in place to combat lung disease among miners since 1970. There has been great progress but as May mentioned, in 1997 there was still more than 300 new cases of occupational lung disease reported to our agency.
Uranium mining versus coal mining
1. Uranium mining is inherently safer because of differences in mining methods
Uranium mining
Mostly insitu leaching. Putting pipes in the ground and pumping an acid mixture in other pipes and pumps drain the dissolved mixture with uranium in it. No miner goes underground. Open pit surface mining performed at times for both coal and uranium.
Coal mining has a lot more risks for fires and explosions.
Coal mining is for 6 billion tons of coal, uranium mining is for 60,000 tons of uranium each year. 100,000 times less target material. Even the amount of rock removed by uranium mining is less.
Ukraine and China have the highest risks in coal mining and they still send a lot fo guys underground (hundreds of thousands).
The US and Australia (safest coal mines) are highly automated by using long wall mining underground. Guys still die just less because they are 100 times more efficient in terms of manpower.
Mountain top removal for 30% of the coal mines in the USA.
Use 1000 tons of explosives per day to blow away dirt and forest to get at coal. Around 7 billion gallons of sludge gets dammed up. There have been leaks of sludge that have killed all aquatic life in rivers and on one occasion 125 people.
The sludge pond is permitted to hold 2.8 billion gallons of toxic sludge, and is 21 times larger than the pond which killed 125 people in the Buffalo Creek Flood.
Blasting at a mountaintop removal mine expels coal dust and fly-rock into the air, which can then disturb or settle onto private property nearby. This dust contains sulfur compounds, which corrodes structures and tombstones and is a health hazard.
July 09, 2007
Air pollution index that is tied to health risk
Toronto, Canada is introducing an air pollution index that is correlated to health risk This is a good way to make the health risks of air pollution something that people can be aware of on a daily basis. If this is used globally it could help movitivate replacing or cleaning up coal and fossil fuel (diesel oil, gasoline) power sources. The fastest ways are through a combination of conservation, nuclear power, hydro power and renewable power.
June 22, 2007
Fuel efficient planes
Pratt & Whitney has a more efficient jet engine under development that would be 50% quieter and 50% less polluting and use nearly 15% less fuel, in part because the engine would be made of lighter materials than today's engines. Maintenance costs also would be 40% lower because of a simplified design using about 30% fewer parts. The new engines are unlikely to be ready before 2015.
Easyjet is one of companies making a big push for more fuel efficient jets
Scientific American talks about a superconductor enabled all electric airplane concept However, this idea looks like it needs some more breakthroughs with superconductors and fuel cells or in nanotechnology before it gets off the ground.
May 04, 2007
Benefits of using more trains instead of trucks for freight
Consultant Wendell Cox shows shifting 25 percent of the goods moved by truck with trains could save commuters more than 40 hours per year by reducing traffic, save $44 billion in fuel, and could also take 3 million trucks off the road during the rush hours across the country. Depending on the type of train, between 280 to 500 trucks can be eliminated per trip. This would also save on the wear and tear on the rodways and reduce the number of accidents as well.
40% of rail freight is for the movement of 1.17 billion tons of coal each year in the USA. Therefore, by switching from coal power to say nuclear power then would provide the capacity to save about $70 billion in fuel by providing more rail capacity to supplant trucks.
There is also the benefit of $20 billion per year in health cost savings.
Cleaning about half of the coal air pollution would save about $9 billion/year in health costs. Complete elimination reduces the air pollution from coal and reduces the air pollution from the rail and trucks to move the coal and dig it up and the damage from blowing up mountain tops to get at the coal.
there is a global boom in coal usage.
May 01, 2007
State of the Air 2007 in the United States
The upside is that smog levels declined nationwide between 2003 and 2005, aided by the appearance of more pollution controls on smokestacks, according to the report, called "State of the Air: 2007." The bad news is that the number of places in the United States reporting unhealthy levels of soot grew over the same period, the report found. Soot describes the tiny particles of pollution generated by burning fossil fuels. Soot pollution can increase hospital visits for heart and asthma problems, the American Lung Association said.
