Comments on Next Big Future: Predictions on Artificial General Intelligence

Now procesors made with 65nm technology and have r...

2007-08-22T23:59:00.000-07:00

Now procesors made with 65nm technology and have ruoghly 100GFLOPS perfomance. Atom size is roughly 0.1nm. So I can predict, what processors making technology can reach 0.65nm (5 atoms size). Now single processor consist of roughly 500M tranzistors. One chip is size roughly 100mm^2. 65nm/0.65nm=100 times shorter. Becouse tranzsistors is in two dimension chip, then after processors making technology reach 0.65nm, single procesor will be 100^2=10000 times faster than "Intel Core2 quad". So processors, which will be maked with 0.65nm technology will has 100GFLOPS*10000=1PFLOPS=10^15FLOPS. To simulate human brain need at least 100PFLOPS. This single chip (which maybe be made at 2020) will needs power of roughly 100W. Our brains needed power is 20W. So conclusion is if chips will be very small and fast and will has tranzistors size of few atoms, they still not will be so eficient like effiecent like human brain (maybe only processors can be effiecent like human brain if chips will be maked with more tranzistors but will less frequently).

Loki thanks for the CPS/$1K calculator. Very nice....

2007-08-16T14:18:00.000-07:00

Loki thanks for the CPS/$1K calculator. Very nice.

For the sensing, see the work with flourescent markers. They can take real time snapshots. they use a rat and replace a section of skull with clear plastic. they they can do detailed tracking of activity. Recent cycling of flourescent markers lets them look at a larger area past the diffraction limit of visible light (200nm) down to 20nm.

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Snake oil baron. Your discussion of an AI saving intelligence resources by not needing to think about sex etc... reminds of the Seinfeld episode where George becomes a genius when he stops trying to get sex.

I suppose that a lot depends on whether the behavi...

2007-08-16T14:07:00.000-07:00

I suppose that a lot depends on whether the behavior of individual neurons needs to be simulated or if the a simulation of neocortical columns could be achieved while cutting out much of the complexity needed to manifest them in cell form.

From skimming the Kurzweil article that the CPS/$1K calculator page used I could not tell if the brain computation estimate was for the whole brain or just the neocortex but even if it was the later I could imagine a lot of savings on things like knowing how to make bread and cross the street. A colour-blind AI with no sense of smell or taste and no interest in food or sex would still be extremely intelligent with far less computational demands.

Check out my CPS/$1K calculator. Our assumptions are slightly different, but that only changes things by 1 year.

My feeling is that the critical piece is sensors for mapping the brain at a high resolution in real-time. I think such sensors are required to obtain the dynamic behavior of the neurons with only rudimentary understanding of the biochemistry of each neuron type.

Advances in computation power seem a given, but the sensing and modeling process needs directed research.