Comments on Next Big Future: Singularity lite: one to two levels of faster tech...

I think it realy makes sense to think about how a ...

2010-11-12T02:27:16.185-08:00

I think it realy makes sense to think about how a post-singularity world behaves. Ths growth figures are very impressive. If we look at Hansons phase model, one could assume that we will even be getting new phases with more rapid growth. That of course means that even the whole universe will not last many centuries for ever increased growth. It might be interesting to calculate how long it actually would take before energy usage reaches "universal" magnitudes. It is of course possible that the next phase is the final one and that we will not see any more acceleration. That would of course be a very "todays human" centric model.

The growth limit is set by thermodynamics for indu...

2008-02-04T23:44:00.000-08:00

The growth limit is set by thermodynamics for industry based on Earth. I can believe efficiency improvements, but you can only go so far.

But trouble arises long before we get to the point of matching the Sun. Assuming a 1 degree rise in temperature is trouble for regular weather, and an effective temperature at the top of the atmosphere of 255 K currently, that means 3.8 W extra energy per sq.metre, some 2x10^15 W total. Even with a 5 fold efficiency improvement that's just 9.4 doublings.

Just how we would off-world industry in bulk is an interesting question too...

Hypergrowth would mean filling up and using oceans...

2008-02-03T14:21:00.000-08:00

Hypergrowth would mean filling up and using oceans, deserts etc...

Regular growth would mean that too, but hypergrowth means getting their sooner. The expectation is to fill out the current planet by growing 100,000 times from where we are now. I would expect starting to go offworld in a serious way at the same time as we totally fill out the oceans and deserts etc...

Why go off world if you can live under the sea, on...

2008-02-03T10:53:00.000-08:00

Why go off world if you can live under the sea, on mountainous terrain, or in the desert?

Surely, if we possess the technology to live on another planet or moon/asteroid, we could just as easily live under currently inhospitable conditions on Earth, and do it much more cheaply too.

I was thinking about how this plays out longer ter...

2008-02-03T07:05:00.000-08:00

I was thinking about how this plays out longer term and will write some follow up articles to explore this and other issues.

In 1900, global energy consumption equaled 0.7 TW(=10**12 Watt.) Now DSP is up over 100 times and we use about 15TW. So there was an increase of 6 times the efficiency in energy usage to GDP. Plus I think there was some decoupling of GDP from resources. Things like information technology and other less resource intense industries. In the future to maintain hypergrowth we might need more virtual industries.

More GDP from less resources can go beyond just going to the limits of energy efficiency.

100,000 times more for Kardashev 1 all the energy on the planet. 3 of the big stages which if they are coming faster each time would happen very quickly. Definitely need to go offworld, but with fusion and nanotech not a problem.

Then the solar system, 10**26 power. 1 billion times. 4-5 major doubling cycles. (a major doubling cycle has seven doublings.) So if things are accelerating it happens even faster.

It seems we will either have to decouple economic growth from energy growth a lot more or use super tech to tap more power than solar.

Hi Brian

Interesting and provocative essay ...

2008-02-02T22:27:00.000-08:00

Hi Brian

Interesting and provocative essay there Brian. I wonder how long "super-growth" might last before it runs into Earth's thermal limits and has to majorly go off-planet?

Earth receives 174,000 terawatts from the Sun, bounces 52,200 back into space, absorbs and re-radiates the rest - some 121,800 terawatts. Human technologies and thermal processes use ~ 15 TW. Currently we waste ~ 60-80% of the heat we generate. If we improved efficiency while increasing growth the 4-5 fold improvement in efficiency would last but a few decades at most (2-2.22 doubling times.) We would then we thermalising energy gradiants and be squeezing every bit of useful work out of them. Just 13 doubling times after that we would match the Sun's input - a few doublings before that point things would be much too hot. Industry will need to off-world within 195 years at the very latest if industrial growth is to continue.

But for how long will one system be enough? In just 31 doublings after industry off-worlds we will match the Sun's energy output. That means Matrioshka Brain levels will appear within ~ 660 years.

And then?