Comments on Next Big Future: the Moving target for energy dominance

The whole renewables idea sounds great as long as ...

2008-02-28T08:50:00.000-08:00

The whole renewables idea sounds great as long as you don't look at the details. The details stink. Solar and wind both cost more by kWh of generated electricity than nuclear power, and the renewables still require fossil fuel backup. If we want to solve the CO2 problem, we go with nuclear or we shiver in the dark.

Augmented contacts or Microvision's HUD glasses. S...

2008-02-27T22:14:00.000-08:00

Augmented contacts or Microvision's HUD glasses. Seems to be pretty much the same. I believe Microvision is still a few years from having a viable commercial product though.

I opted out of calculus for lack of desire. Your p...

2008-02-27T21:48:00.000-08:00

I opted out of calculus for lack of desire. Your point is valid anony, but on the other hand kurzweil is very well connected to business and science leaders who know more than us. It's not all crystal ball waving or simple extrapolation from a trend. He does seem to be wrong about augmented reality contacts, which are still more than a few years off since it would take longer than that to just get them fda approved.

I find this statement by RK incredibly shallow:
2008-02-27T14:15:00.000-08:00
I find this statement by RK incredibly shallow:

"We also see an exponential progression in the use of solar energy," he said. "It is doubling now every two years. Doubling every two years means multiplying by 1,000 in 20 years. At that rate we'll meet 100 percent of our energy needs in 20 years."

I'm pretty certain that the dynamics of solar energy growth is a lot more complicated than that which a first order linear time-invariant ordinary differential equation would describe.

I do not all of Kurzweil's ideas are long view, bu...

2008-02-27T09:23:00.000-08:00

I do not all of Kurzweil's ideas are long view, but certainly the ones that get more popularity tend to be the long view ones. His nearer term views do not diverge that much from the mainstream, but the ones a few decades out tend to diverge a lot.

ie. His views on life extension are more modest in the near term. A version of be careful what you eat, exercise and take supplements (somewhat but not extremely controversial).

The solar prediction/goal does not look at the spinoffs that would result before the end goal of 1000 times more solar power than we have now with up to 60% efficiency.

Ten years before that solar goal is reached we could the similar tech of thermoelectrics to boost the thermal efficiency of nuclear power by 50% (and other power plants).

It is like running out some prediction based on Moore's law for twenty years and ignoring how to be creative with current capabilities or solutions that could be possible after 1-4 iterations.

Yes, advanced fission--and just as important small...

2008-02-27T09:01:00.000-08:00

Yes, advanced fission--and just as important small and medium scale, modular fission--will help facilitate other energy approaches.

Solar and enhanced geothermal are the big players long-term, neglecting fusion.

Kurzweil tends to take the LLLOOONNNGGG view of things, which often makes his ideas irrelevant now and for the next few decades.

I do respect Ray Kurzweil. I should have emphasize...

2008-02-27T07:54:00.000-08:00

I do respect Ray Kurzweil. I should have emphasized that. I have also personally met him a few times at Foresight conferences and gatherings. He is so respected because he has been right on predictions and inventions in the past.

He has made several inventions like music synthesizers and automated reading for blind. He made several companies and sold them and it has made him rich. The latest thing to make him even richer is using AI to run his own hedge fund.

His predictions and charts on hardware progress has been spot on. It has allowed him to anticipate when hardware would make some inventions successful.

I agree with him that solar will have improving costs and more penetration. However, as I note in my article success with fusion, advance fission could enable other forms of clean energy to remain very important. This is all good so long as the various clean energies can displace coal, oil and other highly polluting fossil fuels.

if kurzweil is so crazy, why is he so respected?

2008-02-27T03:43:00.000-08:00

if kurzweil is so crazy, why is he so respected?