A lot can and would be done with earthly applicati...

2007-08-23T10:11:00.000-07:00

A lot can and would be done with earthly applications. However, I was focusing on space in 50 years and the critical technologies for determining what could happen.

Societies need to adjust the money allocation process so that at least 0.1 to 1% goes to developing many technology projects for long term benefit (a hundred times more than now and what money is made available goes into a few big projects based on politics). There also should be more open shared resources available for anyone to develop projects. Open supercomputers and labs.

Shrinking population is a definitely a slow motion thing, which could be viewed as a long term significant fluctuation at this point. Just like previous projections of continuing trends in population increase were not accurate, assuming that shrinkage and lower birth rates will continue is not accurate.

I think that population is slowing as we get into the range (25-50%) of carrying capacity, plus changes in society (women's rights, increased wealth, better life expectancy - no need for 4-5 kids to ensure that 2 make it, insurance etc...) may see more changes that swing the pendulum the other way.

Nanotech and other future tech can increase the carrying capacity of the earth by 10 times or more even with higher standards of living(habitable deserts, oceans, higher density cities, high rises)

Life extension could make big breakthroughs. So that 56 million people do not die every year and people could change reproductive patterns for 1-2 children every 20-50 years and the same person being able to reproduce again.

With the possible exception of the nuclear rocket ...

2007-08-22T18:49:00.000-07:00

With the possible exception of the nuclear rocket technology, I think that all of these projects could sell themselves based on their earthly applications, assuming people can be convinced that the goals are achievable. Not that we could not or should not develop nuclear rockets but they are a type of project that would likely require special funding from a source that is at least one step removed from both the electorate and dependence on market revenue.

Actually, some of these projects would be so useful as to make near term space flight a minor benefit in comparison.

One other "catastrophe" that I have begun to wonder about is the possibility of a demographic contraction. It seems that even poor regions are seeing their population growth rates shrink. This seems to be happening even faster than it did in industrial nations. While this will have benefits like less agricultural land needed, lower energy requirements and a greater impulse to invest in productivity improvements, would it not also leave smaller markets, fewer investors and a generally less powerful civilization once the effects of a shrinking population begin to be felt? Space colonization seems to be a collection of products and services and if there are not enough consumers to make these products and services marketable it might be a tough sell.

Comments on Next Big Future: Space 2057 : triumph of technology

A lot can and would be done with earthly applicati...

With the possible exception of the nuclear rocket ...