Comments on Next Big Future: China 3rd largest economy

That previous comment should have said not aware.

2008-05-05T21:13:00.000-07:00

That previous comment should have said not aware.

I think one of the bigger questions is how long ca...

2008-05-05T11:57:00.000-07:00

I think one of the bigger questions is how long can China stay as one country yet still be innovative? 'Relative' political freedom seems to be a necessity for innovation.

I am aware of a projected population crash project...

2008-05-04T21:44:00.000-07:00

I am aware of a projected population crash projection for China.

The one child policy did not get absolute enforcement and has been relaxed even more recently. People with more money are ignoring the financial penalties. It was never strictly enforced in the rural areas and most people lived in the rural areas and still do in spite of decades of migration.

China still has a 1.73 fertility rate

That fertility rate is higher than Canada's, Russia, Spain, Italy, Germany about the same as Netherlands and Australia

That is supposing that the reported fertility rate is accurate. With the partially enforced one child policy there probably are more rural births that are unreported and uncounted.

The Economist magazine indicates that the province GDP estimates have averaged about 1% higher than the China national GDP. The provincial numbers proved to be right when the GDP was adjusted in the 2004 Census It also discusses the varying degrees of reliability of Chinese statistics.

I believe urbanization will be a big factor in China maintaining higher GDP growth rates 2020-2025.

"They talk about China's amazing growth as well as...

2008-05-04T19:31:00.000-07:00

"They talk about China's amazing growth as well as some of their major hurdles/problems right now."
Well I'm not sure I would call it "amazing". The growth is certainly long overdue. If only the chinese leaders had ditched communism in favor of capitalism a long time ago, China would already be the world's largest economy. Given the average Chinese IQ of 105, China should have a similar gdp per capita to japan, south korea and taiwan. So to be fair, you really have to compare the current gdp per capita to what it could have been if the markets were freed up sooner. Using that comparison, China is not doing so great. If China had followed taiwan's development, it would already have a gdp per capita of $29,500 compared to its currently abysmal number. I think that the gdp per capita of china isn't even going to reach that other east asian countries because of too much government intervention, but it will still become the world's largest economy nonetheless.

Have you also factored in the coming population cr...

2008-05-04T09:13:00.000-07:00

Have you also factored in the coming population crash in China due to the affects of the One Child Policy (i.e disproportionate number of male children when compared to female childre), and the failure of China to spread its infrastructure investments outside of the coastal plains area.

I read a cool National Geographic magazine entirel...

2008-05-03T21:17:00.000-07:00

I read a cool National Geographic magazine entirely on China just recently. They talk about China's amazing growth as well as some of their major hurdles/problems right now. Seems that water is going to be a huge issue for China in the next few decades. The Huang He was talked about a lot with its bad pollution as well as poor management (some years it doesn't even reach the sea). I was looking at the maps and it seemed as though China gets a lot less rain than the US does. Maybe new technology will help with water, like ways to safely extract it from the sea or to condense it from the air?