tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post1797128687123336718..comments2008-03-29T11:58:05.586-07:00bwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07541279438184352860noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post-52204995140057104352008-03-29T11:58:00.000-07:002008-03-29T11:58:00.000-07:00Check out the Polonator, a $150K fully automatic sequencer at www.polonator.orgAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post-22965838469048772382008-03-26T23:57:00.000-07:002008-03-26T23:57:00.000-07:00The trend is clear, but specific cost and winners are very hard to know beforehand.<BR/><BR/>My sister has a master's in chem and she didn't believe the generalization of a moore's law like trend applied to DNA sequencing. Of course I got that info. from Kurzweil many years ago.<BR/><BR/>It's hard to generalize, but my opinion is that if you are in a scientific field, and some silly futurist predicts rapid progress, it will be ignored because it's a very hard problem and *you* are not that smart. If you are the genius working on the solution, you are publically over optimistic for psychological as well as monetary reasons.<BR/><BR/> <BR/><BR/>What I truly love about this revolution is to end a long standing quarel with my sis: how much influence do genes have on behavior? Oh, I also have a bet that by 2054 we will know 99.9% of every human protein structure. I said she could just take me out to a nice dinner.<BR/><BR/>One of these days i'll fix my google identity...pass doesnt work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post-24104342869943269482008-03-26T08:57:00.000-07:002008-03-26T08:57:00.000-07:00I believe that many companies and institutions are all trying to radically reduce the costs. The NIH has funded many projects targeting $10,000 and $1000 genome and $100 genome. So it is a race with many participants.<BR/><BR/>I see the pace of the progress and see that the $5000 price would be in line with progress from 2003 to 2004, 2004 to 2005, 2005 to 2006 and 2006 to 2007 and 2007 to this month. <BR/><BR/>They have many ways to bring the costs down and speed up many parallel nanopores, more parallelized sequencing, more computational assistance, more automation, etc..<BR/><BR/>This like Moore's law is like looking at Nascar and saying the last few laps had an average fastest speed of 2 minutes. I think the next lap will also be about 2 minutes and I think it will car X that might have the best lap. <BR/><BR/>Maybe at the end of 2008 it will be Applied Bio with $15,000 for whole genome or Illumina with $12,000 or someone else at $8000 or $3500. The trend is rapidly falling costs. I think 2009 ought to be the year of the $1000 whole genome sequence but if it is 2010 the world will still be changing soon and fast. Before 2013, less than $100. The progress is clearly very fast, exactly who wins and in which quarter they are ahead will matter for stock price and options but the overall societal effects will be from the application and usage of very inexpensive sequencing. Inexpensive sequencing also helps speed up and reduce costs with DNA synthesis. They are closely related. <BR/>Genome sequencing is part of the overall mastery of the genome. Read it cheap and fast and change it in precisely, cheaply and safely and build stuff with DNA using DNA nanotechnology and synthetic biology.bwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07541279438184352860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post-53847196445992134292008-03-26T08:31:00.000-07:002008-03-26T08:31:00.000-07:00Why do you trust the 5,000 figure? Was this company's press release accurate in the past? Or just the big name scientist on the board of directors convincing enough?<BR/><BR/>5,000 is almost worth it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com