Comments on Next Big Future: Inertial Confinement Fusion update

From the Talk Polywell that M Simon mentioned.
2008-05-07T07:54:00.000-07:00
From the Talk Polywell that M Simon mentioned.
Dr Nebel comments :

I suppose that this is the point where I need to make a comment. As for the WB-7, the plasma is pretty much there (i.e. where it needs to be). The plasma diagnostics aren’t. They have been built and their components have been tested. They need to be installed and tested on the machine. Obviously, we had to get reasonable plasmas before we can use the diagnostics. As I told Alan Boyle, we don’t have answers yet so I can’t speculate as to how well this machine will perform.

We anticipate that we will be getting a lot of data over the next few months. Consequently, it would good to let you know what to expect from us in terms of information:

1. We can’t release data. The DOD has to determine what it wants to release. Eventually this will all come out, but they are our customer and this is their call. We are free to discuss anything which has been released (such as the WB-6) but they will control the new data. I’m willing to discuss where we are and what we are learning, but I can’t give you a lot of numbers.

2. Don’t expect us to be making a lot of pronouncements to the press like the cold fusion people did. We will have a very high level review panel that will be looking at our results, and we don’t want to prejudge their conclusions.

That being said, so far we are pleased with what we are seeing. The hardware works and we haven’t had any nasty surprises. It appears that we have a lot more control over the discharges than they did in the WB-6.

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I think the WB-6 neutrons are probably real. The measured neutron rate matches well against the expected rate if the plasma was operating in the wiffleball. But if we don't see them, then the question will be whether they aren't real or something just got screwed up. If there are open questions that need to be answered, then there is a reasonable chance the the research will continue. Let's hope that we don't get in the mode where we have to perpetually rebuild the laboratory like we've had to do this time
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The worldwide electricity market is $6,000,000,000,000/year. Noone has ever cornered a market anywhere near this size. We don’t think that a little 5 person company in the New Mexico desert is going to pull that off, and we’re not going to try to do that. We are presently developing commercialization strategies to open up this technology. However, right now I’m not going to tip my hand as to what we are going to try. Suffice it to say that are plans are consistent with Doc’s original vision. We’re focused on getting the WB-7 to work first.

John

Power and control (M Simon) has some updates related to your question)

EMC2 owns the patents and the commercialization rights. DOD retains the right to use the technology free of charge. That's a pretty standard arrangement.

As for DOD taking control of the technology, I think that's pretty unlikely. The most similar parallel to this that I can think of was the development of fission power. Both nuclear fission propulsion and commercial power were developed in parallel. It isn't a coincidence that both systems are LWRs. I expect a similar situation here. Everyone that I have talked to at the DOD understands that energy supply is a major national security issue. It's not in the national interest of the US to keep this technology from going commercial.

Dr. Nebel also reports that the EMC2 contract with the Navy runs through August. So that gives some idea of when we might know the answer.

Thanks for the link.

May I suggest visiting...

2008-05-06T05:30:00.000-07:00

Thanks for the link.

May I suggest visiting:

Talk Polywell

Dr. Nebel is a frequent commenter of late. He also answers the occasional question.

Hey Brian, I'm curious. If WB7 is successful, do y...

2008-05-05T12:40:00.000-07:00

Hey Brian, I'm curious. If WB7 is successful, do you really think that EMC2 would release their successful results?

If funding is provided by the US Navy, why would they (the US Govt.) want that information going public? I would think that if the EMC2 group really does manage to confirm that Bussard was correct and/or manage to get it working, then letting the world know it works would not be in the best interests of the US Govt.

I don't think the Navy is funding this project for humanitarian reasons, although I could be wrong. After all, they kept Bussard silent for over a decade while they were funding him.

Comments on Next Big Future: Inertial Confinement Fusion update

Thanks for the link.May I suggest visiting...

Hey Brian, I'm curious. If WB7 is successful, do y...

Thanks for the link.

May I suggest visiting...