tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post1197279202814328138..comments2007-07-19T21:35:36.709-07:00bwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07541279438184352860noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post-55337501854708891402007-07-19T21:35:00.000-07:002007-07-19T21:35:00.000-07:00I think the hardware capability is developing faster than most people had predicted. Algorithm and highly software dependent AI is less predictable, but AI based on neuron and brain simulation should have success and useful capabilities.<BR/><BR/>Refinements in efficiency of converting general purpose petaflops into better brain simulators (through algorithmic and science improvements) will further accelerate developments. <BR/><BR/>Another main point - human equivalent supercomputers by 2012 and human equivalent workstations by 2018. Which also means at least the weak version of greater than human level intelligence in supercomputers in 2012+. Weak in that the human intelligence is many times faster and more larger than human intelligence. Strong AGI would mean that the intelligence would be not just faster but superior to human intelligence in qualitative ways.bwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07541279438184352860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17555522.post-27689171921201456412007-07-19T20:51:00.000-07:002007-07-19T20:51:00.000-07:00Soo... What's your ultimate point? That it may/will take 5-20 years longer to achieve these computation densities than the boosters think?William Chttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13516553208356739832noreply@blogger.com