October 22, 2014

World GDP should double by 2030 and World Trade, Shipping, Ports and Supply Chain will match

According to the Global Marine Trends 2030 report, China will continue to grow, prosper and evolve into the role of a dominant world superpower, particularly with regards to the commercial maritime shipping industry. In fact, it has been widely suggested that the Chinese shipping industry will likely own and operate up to 25 per cent of the world’s commercial shipping fleet, by the year 2030.

In order to meet the rising demand from China and the other prospering nations in the emerging and developed world, the shipping industry is expected to increase its transport capacity from nine billion tonnes a year to between nineteen billion and twenty-four billion tonnes a year. In doing so, the world’s container ship fleet will double its current carrying capacity to 450 million gross tonnes, by the end of 2030.

In 2008, about 13 percent of world freight exports from more than 200 countries ($2.1 trillion out of $16 trillion) were bound for the United States. Of this amount, 55 percent was oceanborne cargo, 20 percent was air cargo, and about 25 percent was carried by land modes of transportation.

China will see the largest growth in commercial fleet ownership, rivalling Greece and the rest of the European countries combined. China will become the world’s primary maritime market, leading in seaborne trade, shipbuilding and vertically integrated ownership and ship management. The economic development of India follows closely behind China, and it is expected to become a giant driver of global trade in an order of magnitude similar to China.

A leading European shipping line has ordered 20 ships for 2015 with a capacity of 18,000 Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). This is the equivalent of a continuous lane of heavy goods vehicles from Rotterdam to Paris.

Here is a 36 page presentation of Global Marine Trends 2030.

Turkey will build a third nuclear reactor and Japan continues slow process to approve restarts

1. Turkey said it plans to build a third nuclear power plant by 2018 or 2019. Turkey has two ongoing nuclear projects. One to be built in Mersin by Akkuyu Nuclear with an agreement signed between the governments of Turkey and Russia in May 2010. The second project will be built through a Turkey-Japan cooperation in Sinop, the article said.

2. Japan's newly appointed trade minister, Yoichi Miyazawa, said on Tuesday that he would continue with the policy of seeking to restart nuclear reactors deemed safe by the atomic regulator. Miyazawa, speaking to reporters, also said he would move toward restarting Kyushu Electric Power Co's Sendai plant in southwestern Japan.

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has endorsed the restart of the nuclear reactors at Kyushu Electric's Sendai power plant in southern Japan

Injection Of Brain Nerve Cells Into Spine Helps Paralyzed Man Walk

BBC News reports that a paralysed man has been able to walk again after a pioneering therapy that involved transplanting cells from his nasal cavity into his spinal cord.

BBC One's Panorama programme had unique access to the project and spent a year charting the patient's rehabilitation.

Darek Fidyka, 40, from Poland, was paralysed after being stabbed repeatedly in the back in the 2010 attack.

He said walking again - with the support of a frame - was "an incredible feeling", adding: "When you can't feel almost half your body, you are helpless, but when it starts coming back it's like you were born again."

Cell Transplantation Journal - Functional regeneration of supraspinal connections in a patient with transected spinal cord following transplantation of bulbar olfactory ensheathing cells with peripheral nerve bridging

The Future of Work - Work at Uber or Drive for Uber

Uber is an interesting case study in the future of work. Uber is a company that is now valued at more than $18 billion where they use technology to enable the crowdsourcing of paid car rides. As of September 16, 2014, the UBer service was available in 45 countries and more than 100 cities worldwide.

Uber aggressively expanding across the globe, moved in to an 88,000-square-foot space at 1455 Market St. four months ago. That space has room for 600 people, and the company has leased an additional 132,000 square feet in the same building, but has not yet moved in.

Typical of Silicon Valley startups those who work at Uber have 80 to 100 hour work weeks.

Uber has tens of thousands of drivers. Several times this year, drivers have organized and protested the company's practices, in cities like New York, Santa Monica and San Francisco. Today (Oct 22) there is a multi-city protest, which will take place in front of Uber's various offices from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. EST, in cities across the country including Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and even across the pond in London. Uber drivers have a handful of issues with the company, including Uber’s reduced fares, Uber’s tipping policy, the five-star rating system, and driver safety and with Uber setting policy with no driver input.

Why is their Undercounting of Ebola ? Because it would wrong to risk lives for an accurate count

The Journal Science - Scienceinsider discusses the science, statistics and disease situation and methodology behind the estimate of 2.0 to 2.5 times undercounting of Ebola cases and Ebola deaths.

As the Ebola epidemic unfolds, underreporting appears to be getting worse.

In August, the World Health Organization said that the reported Ebola numbers "vastly underestimate" the epidemic's magnitude. WHO’s situation updates frequently point out gaps in the data.

A fall in the rate of increase in official Liberia numbers reflects a deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data.

Sierra Leone reports 49 new cases per day and 20 deaths. This does not appear to have the 2.0 to 2.5 correction factor

BBC News also was using an underreporting adjusted estimate of 12000 Ebola deaths.

Nextbigfuture had also estmimated 12000 Ebola deaths based on the fact that there is underreporting.

Lockheed has built its first Compact Fusion Test Machine and fired 200 Test Shots

Lockheed Martin made a lot of news when they revealed their compact nuclear fusion project last week with promises of commercial nuclear fusion within ten years.

Recent criticism has forced project leader McGuire to provide more technical and project details. MIT Technology Review reports on the skepticism and critics of the Lockheed Martin approach. Ian Hutchinson, a professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT and one of the principal investigators at the MIT fusion research reactor, says the type of confinement described by Lockheed had long been studied without much success.

McGuire acknowledged the need for shielding against neutrons for the magnet coils positioned inside the reactor vessel. He estimates that between 80 and 150 centimeters of shielding would be needed, but this can be accommodated in their compact design. Researchers contacted by ScienceInsider say that it is difficult to estimate the final size of the machine without more knowledge of its design. Lockheed has said its goal is a machine 7 meters across, but some estimates had suggested that the required shielding would make it considerably larger.

Lockheed has built its first compact fusion machine and has carried out 200 shots during commissioning and applied up to 1 kilowatt of heating, but McGuire declined to detail any measurements of plasma temperature, density, or confinement time—the key parameters for a fusion plasma—but said the plasma appeared very stable. He said they would be ramping up heating over the coming months and would publish results next year.

Lockheed has had a team of five to 10 people for the past 4 years and hopes to expand the team now that the project is in the open. This scale of project is about $1 million per year.

Superconductors inside magnetic rings will contain the plasma.Credit : Lockheed Martin

IEEE panel agree Moore's Law via Lithography scaling will be dead by 2035 and explore Beyond CMOS

An IEEE symposium panel concluded that "there is no chance that it (Moore's law) will continue until 2035".

Moore’s Law is not dead, but it has clearly reached old age, and no fundamental technology has emerged to replace it. Whatever comes next is likely to challenge old assumptions both for technologists and society at large.

That was one of the conclusions from an IEEE symposium here here exploring the 20-year technology horizon.