Here is an update on the GDP nominal and purchasing power parity (PPP) for the different provinces within China. The figures are for 2013 and have the PPP adjustment from April 2014 by the IMF and World Bank.
Nextbigfuture projections for total China GDP in RMB were off by 3.5%. 57 trillion yuan instead of 59 trillion. The yuan is also not strengthening as much as Nextbigfuture was expecting. China’s GDP growth is looking to about 7.3% in 2014 and 7.0% in 2015. The yuan will be at about 5.9 to 6.05 to the US dollar in 2015.
The biggest unknown in future nominal GDP projections for China is what will happen with the exchange rate.
There is reason to believe that the yuan will rise as an alternative reserve currency.
However, it seems like the yuan will appreciate very slowly if it all for the next several years.
GDP growth is slowing into the 5-7% range.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP 2013 57 7.7 6.1 9.4 9.7 16.5 2014 63 7.3 6.1 10.4 10.8 17.4 2015 67 7.0 6.0 11.4 11.8 18.2 2016 73 6.8 5.9 12.4 12.8 18.8 2017 80 6.5 5.8 13.8 14.2 19.2 2018 87 6.5 5.7 15.3 15.8 20.2 2019 95 6 5.6 17 17.5 21.2 2020 103 6 5.5 18.8 19.3 22.2 2021 112 6 5.4 20.7 21.2 23.4 2022 122 6 5.3 23 23.5 24.5 2023 132 6 5.2 25.4 26 25.6 2024 143 6 5.1 28 29 26.7 2025 154 5.5 5 31 32 27.9 2026 165 5.5 5 33 34 29.2 2027 177 5.5 5 35.4 36 30.5 2028 189 5 5 37.8 39 31.9 2029 201 5 5 40.5 41 33.3 2030 215 5 5 43 44 34.8
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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