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June 28, 2014

China yuan moving up the world currency ranks and shifting to a strengthening trend

China's yuan is currently the 7th most used currency for world trade payments. It will likely be the 5th most used currency by the end of this year and the 4th most used currency by the middle of 2015.

Europe has seen the strongest year-on-year growth in yuan payment value.

The yuan has become the second-most popular currency in cross-border transactions between China and the rest of the world, driven by its greater use in global trade and investment as offshore yuan hubs spring up, according to Swift.

Alain Raes, the chief executive for Asia-Pacific and Europe, Middle East and Africa at Swift, attributed the rapid growth to the proliferation of offshore yuan hubs outside Hong Kong, helping increase yuan deposits and bolstering formation of offshore yuan capital pools.

"Hong Kong has the most-established and largest [yuan] corridor with mainland China, but as other financial centres such as London, Singapore and Frankfurt establish the necessary infrastructure and agreements to support [yuan] transactions, we will see the [yuan] grow significantly in these markets," he said.

Currency traders and analyst are now expecting the yuan to go back to a rising trend in terms of its value to the US dollar. China's yuan is headed to end the second consecutive month stronger against the dollar, further distancing from the 19-month low of 6.2673 touched on 30 April as most indicators released during June surprised on the higher side. Investors now consider the appreciation trend has returned after the sharp fall in the first four months of 2014.




July 8th is going to be a very big day for the Chinese yuan as important releases such as consumer price inflation, industrial production, trade balance, retail sales - all for June - and Q2 GDP data are scheduled for that day.

Further data boost will likely take the "red back" to new highs such as 6.1767 and 6.1217.

Important downside levels seen are 6.1767, the 38.2% level and then 6.1217, the 23.6% mark. A decisive break of that level will open the doors to the all-time low of 6.0407 hit on 14 January.




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