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November 02, 2013

Global Internet Trends in 2013, projected into 2015

At the beginning of 2013 almost 80 per cent of households globally had a TV, compared with 41 per cent of households with a computer and 37 per cent with Internet access.

The report shows that the number of households with Internet access is increasing in all regions, but large differences persist, with penetration rates at the end of this year set to reach almost 80 per cent in the developed world, compared with 28 per cent in the developing world.

An estimated 1.1 billion households worldwide are not yet connected to the Internet, 90 per cent of which are in the developing world.
The trend is strongly positive, however, with the proportion of households with Internet access in developing countries increasing from 12 per cent in 2008 to 28 per cent in 2013 – a remarkable 18 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Internet users as a percentage of the population has been growing on average at double-digit rates over the past ten years. The percentage of the population online in the developed world will reach almost 77 per cent by end 2013, compared with 31 per cent in the developing world.

250 million additional people came online in 2012.

An estimated 2.7 billion people will also be connected to the Internet (by the end of 2013)– though speeds and prices vary widely, both across and within regions.

Mobile broadband connections over 3G and 3G+ networks are growing at an average annual rate of 40 per cent, equating to 2.1 billion mobile-broadband subscriptions and a global penetration rate of almost 30 per cent. Almost 50 per cent of all people worldwide are now covered by a 3G network.

The World should have about 3.0 billion connected by the end of 2014 and 3.3 billion by the end of 2015.

China's internet user base will reach 800 million in 2015, reports People's Daily citing China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). As explained by MIIT minister Miao Wei, as the MIIT accelerates its 'Broadband China' project and expands broadband construction in the country, the number of internet users will continue to increase rapidly. Miao said it will continue to expand the development of mobile internet, e-commerce, cloud computing and M2M information services in China with the goal of reaching yearly e-commerce transactions of CNY 18 trillion, 2.3 million new internet sector jobs, and yearly software and information service revenue of CNY 4 trillion by 2015. The MIIT has also set a goal of domestically producing 80 percent of the country's LCD display panels used in television production.

By 2015, McKinsey projects India will overtake the U.S. to become country with the second highest number of Internet users after China. The Internet’s potential contribution to India’s gross domestic product by 2015 may leap to $100 billion by 2015, from about $30 billion in 2011, according to a new a study by McKinsey & Co.

The global consulting firm says this is because the number of Internet users in the country is expected to reach anywhere between 330 million and 370 million by then.




By end 2013 there will be 6.8 billion total mobile-cellular subscriptions – almost as many as there are people on the planet.

Wikipedia list of countries by internet users in 2012.

2012 Internet users                   2015 Internet Users   

 China          568,192,000     42.3%         800+ million
 United States  254,295,500     81.0%
 India          151,599,000     12.6%         330-370 million
 Japan          100,684,474     79.1%
 Brazil          99,357,737     49.8%
 Russia          75,926,000     53.3%
 Germany         68,296,919     84.0%
 Nigeria         55,930,390     32.9%
 United Kingdom  54,861,245     87.0%
 France          54,473,474     83.0%
 Mexico          44,173,551     38.4%




Broadband pricing & affordability

Analysis of trends in broadband pricing in more than 160 countries shows that in the four years between 2008-2012 fixed-broadband prices fell by 82 per cent overall, from 115.1 per cent of average monthly income per capita (GNI p.c.) in 2008 to 22.1 per cent in 2012.

The biggest drop occurred in developing countries, where fixed-broadband prices fell by 30 per cent year on year between 2008 and 2011.
The average price per unit of speed (Mbps) also decreased significantly between 2008 and 2012, with a global median price of USD 19.50 per Mbps in 2012, almost a quarter of the price that was being charged in 2008.

The report also presents for the first time the results of a comprehensive price data collection exercise that was carried out for four different types of mobile-broadband service. Results show that in developing countries mobile broadband is now more affordable than fixed broadband, but still much less affordable than in developed countries.

Austria has the world’s most affordable mobile broadband, while Sao Tomé and Principe, Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have the least affordable, with service cost equal to or higher than average monthly gross national income (GNI) per capita. Other countries that rank well for mobile broadband affordability include Qatar, the United Kingdom, Germany, Kuwait and France.

The global broadband affordability target set in 2011 by the ITU/UNESCO Broadband Commission for Digital Development aims to bring the cost of entry-level broadband service to less than 5% of average monthly income.


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