Shale oil (light tight oil) is rapidly emerging as a significant and relatively low cost new unconventional resource in the US. There is potential for shale oil production to spread globally over the next couple of decades. If it does, it would revolutionise global energy markets, providing greater long term energy security at lower cost for many countries.
• PWC analysis suggests that global shale oil production has the potential to reach up to 14 million barrels of oil per day by 2035; this amounts to 12% of the world’s total oil supply
This increase could reduce oil prices in 2035 by around 25%-40% ($83-$100/barrel in real terms) relative to the current
baseline EIA projection of $133/barrel in 2035, which assumes low levels of shale oil production.
This could increase the level of global GDP in 2035 by around 2.3%-3.7% (which equates to around $1.7-$2.7 trillion at today’s global GDP values).
• However, the benefits of such oil price reductions will vary significantly by country. Large net oil importers such as India and Japan might see their GDP boosted by around 4%-7% by 2035, while the US, China, the Eurozone and the UK might gain by 2%-5% of GDP.
Major oil exporters such as Russia and the Middle East could see a significant worsening of their trade balances by around
4%-10% of GDP in the long run if they fail to develop their own shale oil resources.
New Zealand has over 20 billion barrels of oil in place and perhaps as much as 55 billion barrels.
Advanced oil recovery is ranked as the 11th most important impactful technology for 2025 by McKinsey
The McKinsey Global Institute identifies 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025
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