June 14, 2013

What are the Guaranteed hollywood movie blockbusters ?

Steven Spielberg made a prediction that Hollywood was doomed because the big $300 million movies could not sustainably make over $1 billion and that people did not have time for the movies.

What are the specific movies that are guaranteed to make over $1 billion and likely over 1.5 to 2 billion ?

James Cameron has several movies in the pipeline. Avatar 2 (2015), Avatar 3 (2018 ?) and Battle Angel (2017).

Battle Angel is set in the 26th century, the story takes place 300 years after a societal collapse caused by a major war. In that society, it's a technological dark age following a pinnacle of achievement far beyond where we are right now. Cyborg technology is a way of life. People are augmented a lot as workers, so being a cyborg is not unusual. The main character is a cyborg. She has an organic human brain, and she looks like she's about fourteen years old. She has a completely artificial body and she's lost her memory. She is found in a wreckage and reconstituted by a cyber-surgeon who becomes her surrogate father.

Basically it sounds like a mashup of a terminator world with Dark Angel (TV show with Jessica Alba).

I think Avatar 2, Avatar 3 and Battle Angel will each make over $2 billion in worldwide box office. China's box office is growing to be larger than US box office and China loves big James Cameron movies. Titanic had $2.1 billion (adjusted for inflation Titanic made over $3 billion) in world wide box office and Avatar and almost $2.8 billion.




I think all of the Avengers movies will have huge box office success. The biggest ones will have Robert Downey and Iron Man. Iron Man 3 is heading to $1.3 billion in worldwide box office and Avengers had $1.5 billion.

Disney now has the Star Wars Franchise and I think competent Star Wars movies should make $1.5 billion in worldwide box office.

So there is a slate of big box office movies that will likely be the top two movies for every year going out to 2019 and beyond.

Steven Spielberg has not been trying to make a $1 billion+ world box office movie since Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. This effort was not successful but it did make $786 million worldwide.

Applying inflation adjustment then ET (1982), Jaws (1975), Jurassic Park (1993) and Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) really stand out as being 2 to 4 times more successful than other Steven Spielberg in terms of box office.

It has been 20 years, since Steven Spielberg had an inflation adjusted $700+ million domestic box office success.

Steven Spielberg needs to really try to make a real big movie blockbuster or settle for mid sized movies that are more artsy. He seems to have made the second choice.

For George Lucas, the second and third movie of second trilogy of Star Wars movies was about 60% of the inflation adjusted box office of the Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace made half of the domestic box office for Star Wars when adjusted for inflation.

Any really big blockbuster movies needs to make three as much money from markets outside of the USA and Canada

The biggest movies make three times as much money from overseas markets.
Avatar made just short of three times as much money from international markets as from domestic (US and Canada). Avatar was in 2009 and China and the international box office is growing.

The biggest box office movies in China are Avatar, Titanic, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, and Iron Man 3.

The biggest movie in China in 2013 is Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons. It is a 2013 action-comedy film directed by Stephen Chow and Derek Kok. The film is a loose comedic re-interpretation of the Chinese novel Journey to the West by Wu Cheng'en.


Another big movie in China is Lost in Thailand. The film is about two businessmen who go searching for their boss in Thailand, and then meet up with a tourist eager to explore the country. It seems to be kind of variation on the Hangover and those kind of comedies.



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