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June 07, 2013

Changes in China 2000, now and 2025

Trends cannot be depended upon to predict the future. Trends may not hold for the duration of predictions. However, trends can be a useful tool to get an idea of what might happen. The projections here are not linear projections but are based upon projections based on models analyzed by McKinsey Global and other stated plans of Chinese government agencies and companies. It is the funded high speed rail plans of the Chinese ministry and new urbanization plans of the government. Broad Group is building the 202 story skyscraper. The GDP projections assume a slower growth rate than for the 2000 to 2013 time period. The chinese government is creating infrastructure to integrate several large regions (Bohai, Pearl River Delta, and other areas).

China had 456 million people living in cities in 2000 out of population of 1.26 billion.
China now has 730 million people living in cities out of a population of 1.36 billion.
China is projected to have 900 million to 1 billion people living in cities out of a population of 1.44 billion.

China's first high speed rail line did not get opened until 2007.
Now there is 10,000 kilometers of high speed rail lines in China.
China will have 50,000 kilometers of high speed rail by 2020.

China (not including Hong Kong) has 1692 buildings taller than 100 meters.
The US has 1701 skyscrapers (building over 100 meters)
Hong Kong has 2354 skyscrapers.
China is expected to add 20,000 to 50,000 skyscrapers by 2025. Those predictions are not factoring in the rapid (and lower cost) skyscraper construction using factory mass production by Broad Group.

China should build a 200+ story Sky City by the end of 2013 or early in 2014.



I believe that there will be more than ten 200+ story Skycity buildings built by Broad Group or a competitor in China by 2025.
I believe at least one of those skyscrapers will be a 500+ story building by 2025.



China had a GDP in 2000 of $1.2 trillion.
China has a 2013 GDP of $9.3 trillion.
China should have a 2025 GDP of $40-58 trillion. Note - a repeat of the 2000 to 2013 would mean a GDP of about $65-70 trillion.

Cities and megacities

Based on current trends, China in 2025 will have 221 cities with more than one million people compared to Europe with 35. 25 of China's cities will have more than 5 million people. China's cities in 2025 will generate about 95% of its GDP (versus 75% today)

China is integrating four regions into megacities.

The process of merging the Bohai region has already begun with the connection of Beijing to Tianjing by a high speed railway that completes the 75 mile journey in less than half an hour, providing an axis around which to create a network of feeder cities.

McKinsey forecast of China's urbanization to 2025.












China's investments of over $250 billion/year in education will increase the number of college educated people to 150-250 million


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