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February 07, 2013

Middle Class and Affluent America Has an Informal One Child Policy and it is leading to big problems

Middle-class Americans have their own, informal one-child policy these days. And an alarming number of upscale professionals don’t even go that far—they have dogs, not kids. In fact, if it weren’t for the wave of immigration we experienced over the last thirty years, the United States would be on the verge of shrinking, too. The global demographic implosion and the demographics of the United States are covered in a book by Jonathan Last.

College Educated white couples in the United States have a fertility rate of 1.6 while in China with an oppressive one child policy has a fertility rate of 1.54.

Everything about modern life—from Bugaboo strollers to insane college tuition to government regulations—has pushed Americans in a single direction, making it harder to have children. And making the people who do still want to have children feel like second-class citizens.

Mexican Immigration has cratered and will be insignificant in the Future

Pew Research has shown that net migration from Mexico has fallen to zero and possibly is a net outflow back to Mexico.

After four decades that brought 12 million current immigrants—most of whom came illegally—the net migration flow from Mexico to the United States has stopped and may have reversed.

In the 1960s Mexican women had an average of seven children each; now they have only 2.4, and before 2020 the number is expected to drop below two.







Economists project Mexico's GDP growth rates of at least 3.5 percent through 2020, with modest levels of inflation. According to The Economist, the country will rank among the 10 largest economies in the world by the end of the decade.

The US is projected to have GDP growth rates of 2.1 to 2.4%. Stronger foreign economies could make the United States unattractive and uncompetitive for immmigration. Declining global populations will make many countries compete for immigration.



Congressional Budget Office Counting on Immigration for a lot of Labor Force Growth

The Congressional Budget Office has a projection of labor force growth to 2021.

CBO’s projection, total net inflows rise from about 440,000 in 2010 to more than 2.3 million in 2015, then fall to about 1.3 million by 2020. Those projections imply about 3.6 million more immigrants age 16 or older residing in the United States in 2021 than SSA projects; most of the difference is attributable to the number of unauthorized residents in the country. Many of the additional immigrants will be men who seek work in the United States and support their families who remain in the home country by sending money to them. Assuming that about 60 percent of the additional immigrants are men and that the participation rates of the additional immigrants are 90 percent for men and 50 percent for women (similar to current
rates for immigrants from Mexico and Central America), the higher immigration projections add about 2.7 million to the projected labor force in 2021.

CBO estimates that, on net, about 400,000 unauthorized residents (foreign-born people who are not authorized to live, work, or study in the country) left the United States in 2010. It anticipates little change in the number of unauthorized residents in 2011, but it projects net inflows of about 1.4 million in 2014 and again in 2015 as the economy recovers and demand for labor strengthens. Beginning in 2016, the projected net flows of unauthorized residents taper off and reach 270,000 (the same as SSA’s projection) in 2020.


SOURCES - CBO, Amazon, Economist, Pew Hispanic, OECD

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