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December 10, 2012

1994 compared to 2012 and projections to 2030

There was a recent projection by the National Intelligence Council for the world in 2030.

I think that the NIC forecast is underestimating the growth of China by 2030. I think China's economy will be more than double the US GDP in 2030

I also think that there will be more technological impact over the next 18 years.

Nextbigfuture has detailed technologies of the mundane singularity that will have a large impact over the next 18 years.

Factory mass produced skyscrapers and robotic cars will have a significant impact on the world economy. The factory mass produced skyscrapers could have about 30% of the world commercial construction market by 2020. Taller and vastly more affordable buildings will increase the productivity of cities and increase the rate of world urbanization.

I see the impact of Sky Cities and Broad Factory mass produced skyscrapers like the move from 3 to 4 story buildings to cities with 30 story buildings. Average skyscrapers are now 30 to 50 stories tall. This factory mass production will make 100 to 300 story buildings affordable and common.

Eight times the density would be a 45% boost to productivity.

Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.

The Sky Cities are also designed to reduce pollution (99% less construction dust) and use 5 times less material than a regular skyscraper. They would also house homes, offices and stores which will enable more in building commuting. This will boost productivity and reduce commuting times.


NIC projects China's economy to be just larger than or just smaller than the USA.

Wikipedia has a history of nominal GDP from 1994 and GDP for 2012. This is the same 18 year gap from 2012 to 2030.


China moved up from 7.9% of the US economy to 55%




There is a 1.56 deflator for 2012 dollars compared to 1994 dollars.

The US economy then had real growth of 42% over the 18 years from 1994 to 2012.

China's economy grew nearly 9 times (after the 1.56 deflator) from 1994 to 2012.

China's currency is believed to be undervalued by about 25-40% and is expected to appreciate by 2-5% per year.

There are other projections of 2030 GDP which expect China's economy to be twice as large as the US economy in 2030. (The OECD Development Centre made projections in 2010 by updating the work of Angus Maddison.)

Industries of 2030

GE recently discussed an Industrial Internet which could add $10-15 trillion (£6-9 trillion) to global GDP by 2030 (37 pages)





Bain and Company project eight great trillion dollar growth trends to 2020.



China has identified seven strategic industries.
The seven new strategic industries include energy conservation and environment protection, new information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, new energy and new-energy cars, according to the plan.

The seven industries will maintain an average growth rate of more than 20 percent during the 2011-15 period, the plan said.

The total value-added output of the industries will account for around 8 percent in China's GDP by 2015, it said

China will invest $1.5 trillion from 2010 to 2015 in those industries.


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