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November 30, 2012

US could reach 7 million barrels per day in crude oil production Dec, 2012 or Jan, 2013

The EIA publishes total monthly crude oil production statistics are published by state and has statistics going back to 1920 for the USA and 1981 by state. This information has been reported up to Sept, 2012

The weekly crude oil production information for the USA and Alaska has been published up to Nov 23, 2012.

Comparing the information in September against the more current information for October and November. Provides a view into what happened in North Dakota, Texas, California, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall the US will likely have about 206 million barrels of production (6.65 million bpd) in October and 203 million barrels of production in November (6.75 million bpd).

There needs to be 10 million barrels per month more than the July peak and that contribution must of have been at least 5-6 million barrels per month from Texas and North Dakota.

Federal Offshore (PADD 3, Gulf of Mexico) might get about to the level of its July peak. Alaska is at 558,000 bpd (about 16.7 million barrels for the month of October).

Texas and North Dakota have both been increasing production by about 30,000 to 40,000 barrels per day each month. Texas has been able to add 80,000 barrels per day per month in really good months.

North Dakota should end Dec 2012 with over 800,000 bpd of production.
Texas could end with 2.2 million bpd of production.



US production increases in North Dakota and Texas have been remarkable stable and predictable through 2011 and 2012.

US crude oil production appears likely to reach 7.5 million bpd in 2013.

Continental Resources and Whiting (2 of the main companies in North Dakota) continue to project oil production to increase by 30-35% each year for the next several years.


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