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November 21, 2012

Per Capita Disposable Income increasing at 13% in China's Cities

1. Urban disposable income in Shanghai topped 28 mainland regions during the first three quarters of this year, with Beijing and Zhejiang trailing behind, according to figures from local statistics bureaus.

Shanghai was the only provincial-level administrative region where per capita urban disposable income exceeded ¥30,000 during the nine-month period, totaling ¥30,205. Beijing's and Zhejiang's were close to ¥27,000.

Eight regions' per capita urban disposable income outperformed the national average, which was ¥18,427, including the top three, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Tianjin and Shandong.

Urban disposable income grew 13% between January and September, much faster than the 7.7% pace in gross domestic product over the same period.



Urban Disposable Income Per Person, Q1-Q3 2012

Region ~ UDIPP ~ UDIPP Growth ~ GDP Growth
1. Shanghai: ¥30,205 ~ 11.2% ~ 7.4%
2. Beijing: ¥26,948 ~ 11.5% ~ 7.5%
3. Zhejiang: 26,682 ~ 11.7% ~ 7.7%
4. Guangdong: ¥22,949 ~ 12.8% ~ 7.9%
5. Jiangsu: ¥22,619 ~ 13.8% ~ 10.1%
6. Fujian: 21,400 ~ 13.3% ~ 11.4%
7. Tianjin: ¥21,358 ~ 10.3% ~ 13.9%
8. Shandong: ¥18,948 ~ 13.3% ~ 9.7%
9. Liaoning: ¥17,378 ~ 14% ~ 9.3%
10. Inner Mongolia: ¥17,234 ~ 14.2% ~ 11.6%
11. Chongqing: ¥17,179 ~ 13.8% ~ 13.8%
12. Hubei: ¥15,910 ~ 13.9% ~ 11.2%
13. Hunan: ¥15,896 ~ 13.9% ~ 11.2%
14. Guangxi: ¥15,812 ~ 13.1% ~ 11.2%
15. Anhui: ¥15,674 ~ 13.2% ~ 12%
16. Hainan: ¥15,622 ~ 14% ~ 8.4%
17. Sichuan: ¥15,609 ~ 14% ~ 12.8%
18. Shaanxi: ¥15,603 ~ 14% ~ 12.7%
19. Yunnan: ¥15,555 ~ 13.8% ~ 12.6%
20. Hebei: ¥15,308 ~ 12.7% ~ 9.3%
21. Jilin: ¥15,103 ~ 14% ~ 12.1%
22. Shanxi: ¥14,802 ~ 13.1% ~ 10%
23. Jiangxi: ¥14,693 ~ 13.7% ~ 10.6%
24. Guizhou: ¥14,081 ~ 13.9% ~ 13.8%
25. Ningxia: ¥13,972 ~ 14% ~ 11%
26. Xinjiang: ¥12,957 ~ 14.1% ~ 11.5%
27. Gansu: ¥12,538 ~ 14.7% ~ 13.3%
28. Qinghai: ¥12,045 ~ 14.7% ~ 12.3%

$1 = ¥6.23

2.
Morgan Stanley Research expects China's GDP growth to reach 8.2% YoY and 8% YoY in 2013 and 2014, respectively. ``As the impact of policy-easing measures implemented in September have started to kick in, we have seen the green growth hoots story gain traction.`` It expects domestic demand to recover gradually as the new government eases the policy stance modestly to accommodate urbanization initiatives in 2013.

The new government will likely loosen policies modestly from the current level to help support their urbanization initiatives next year, in addition to long-term structural reforms. If the government tightens monetary and property policies inadvertently before growth gains a firm footing, China could be pushed toward the brink of deflation in our bear case. On the other hand, if policy makers are able to launch structural reforms aside from countercyclical measures to smooth the cycle, the risk to our forecasts could bias toward the upside

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