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November 05, 2012

Frost and Sullivan forecasts China economy to be $38 trillion in 2025 with 921 million people living in cities

New analysis from Frost and Sullivan, Mega Trends in China: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2025, has identified over 10 key Mega Trends that will accelerate China's nominal GDP growth rate to around 16 per cent by 2020.

China is set to become the largest economy in the world by 2025 with a nominal GDP value of US$38 trillion. Fuelled by a strong urbanisation rate, a favourable corporate environment, huge infrastructure investment and the largest working age population, the Chinese economy will finally transform itself from being the manufacturing site of the globe to one of the biggest and largest consumer markets in the entire world.


Urbanisation will bring about spatial changes to the country, resulting in the emergence of 13 Mega-cities, 4 Mega-regions, and 6 Mega-corridors in 2025. The Mega Cities will grow to become the major hubs for commercial and business activity, contributing nearly US$6.24 trillion to China's GDP in 2025.

"By 2025, an estimated 921 million people or 65.4 per cent of China's population, will live in cities, which is about 2.6 times of the United States' total population", says Archana Amarnath, Programme Manager, Visionary Innovation Research Group, Frost & Sullivan.

She also added that the growth in Chinese mega cities will supplement Asia's growing role as the world's financial centre. In fact, by 2020, Hong Kong and Shanghai are expected to occupy two places in top five global financial centres.

In addition to urbanisation, the demographic composition of China will also emerge as a key determinant of the country's growth over the next decade. China will have the largest working age populations of the world. The younger demographic, or Gen Y (15-34 years old), will account for 14.6 per cent (335 million) of China's total population in 2025 adding to the social prowess of entire Asia. China and India combined will have about 37 per cent of the total Gen Y population in 2025.

China's potential workforce will be one of the biggest with 922 million individuals in the working age (15-64 years) category in 2025, which is roughly 22 percent of the potential global workforce (total number of people in the working age category).

Augmenting the growth in innovative business models and unique business solutions is the widespread growth in connectivity and digital infrastructure within the country. An ambitious space exploration plan and investment in broadband infrastructure and mobile connectivity will convert China into one of most connected economies in the world. "A connected China will also see about 7 billion connected devices by 2025 ranging from mobile phones and gaming consoles to cars and televisions," predicts Archana Amarnath. Individuals will be highly connected through mobile technology and social media. China is expected to have 1.7 billion mobile phone subscribers in 2025, with at least 70 per cent to adapt 3G or later services. Social networking users will more than double to reach 791.7 million in China by 2025 from 318.8 million in 2011.

In a bid to support this growth momentum, the Chinese government has announced to invest US$2.73 trillion on fixed assets of infrastructure such as power supply, railway, roads, urban public transport, water transport, water conservation, aviation and telecommunications between 2011 and 2015.

With infrastructure support and a favourable corporate environment, industries such as Logistics and Retail will flourish over the next decade. China's logistics industry is expected to become the world's largest in 2016, and is expected to hit US$1 trillion revenue mark by 2020. Retail sales, on the other hand, will hit US$15.8 trillion in 2025, overtaking Japan to be the second largest retail market in the world by 2015.

With so many growth opportunities, China is undoubtedly the most crucial economic centre of the east. In fact, China's growth is the main catalyst in the rise of Asia. However, understanding the composition and major trends of a country like China is more difficult than most because of its sheer size and complexity. Frost & Sullivan aims to bridge the gaps in understanding by offering an insight into the Mega Trends that shape China. Mega Trends, which are characteristically futuristic, macro and comprehensive, offers an exhaustive insight into the key drivers shaping China and provides a visionary outline of the country's future
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Mega Trends in China: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2025 is part of the Visionary Innovation Research Growth Partnership Services program, which also includes research in the following markets: World's Top Mega Trends to 2020 and Impact on Society, Cultures, Business, and Personal Lives (2012 Edition), New Business Models of the Future, Mega Trends for India, Africa and LATAM. All research services included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends that have been evaluated following extensive interviews with market participant.


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