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August 30, 2012

Iran's Supreme Leader Rules Out Nuclear Bomb

Voice of America - Iran's Supreme Leader says his country will never develop an atomic bomb, but will not abandon its controversial nuclear program.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told leaders of developing nations Thursday at the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran that Iran will "not give up its national right to peaceful nuclear energy."

If this is what happens, that would match up to predictions made by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita several years ago

The Washington Post reports that Iran has been speeding up enriched uranium production at its underground plant

U.N. nuclear officials who regularly monitor Iran’s facilities documented a jump of 60 percent in Iran’s total stockpile of so-called medium-enriched uranium, from 159 pounds in mid-May to 255 pounds in mid-August. But the rate of production since May has more than doubled, as more than 300 new gas centrifuges were added to Iran’s underground plant near the city of Qom, inspectors confirmed.



Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Predictions on Iran

1. Iranian government will tone down its nuclear ambitions to the point where it will develop weapons-grade nuclear material only for research purposes

2. Real power rests not with the mullahs or even with the Supreme Leader, but with what he calls the “moneyed interests” of Iranian society: “the banker, the oil people, the bazaris”. Currently quiet and moderate mullahs will become more vocal.

3. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad influence will decline and has been in decline.

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