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August 27, 2012

Car ownership in China

BBVA predicts that in the following three years China’s car ownership rate will reach 113 cars per 1,000 people.

World Bank statistics indicate China was at
47 cars per 1000 people in 2009 (this is about 68 million cars)
37 cars per 1000 people in 2007

Wikipedia lists China as having 83 cars per 1000 in 2011.

China car sales rose to 18.5 million in 2011.

By the end of 2012, China will have about 123 million vehicles. Adding 55 million cars to the 68 million total. This is 91 cars per thousand by the end of 2012.


My projection based on China adding 25 million cars per year from 2013 through 2015

China should have about 108 cars per 1000 people by the end of 2013.
China should have about 120 cars per 1000 people by the end of 2014.
China should have about 138 cars per 1000 people by the end of 2015.

I am forecasting about 187 million cars at the end of 2015 in China.




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