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July 05, 2012

Reinventing services and processes is still a bigger factor than one for one automation

Better robots and AI are coming, but business process changes and better business models (Netflix and Redbox versus Blockbuster) can have more impact.

Process changes and other Job Impacts
There is concern that robots and automation displace human jobs

Better and more robots and artificial intelligence are not the only ways for humans to lose jobs

Going down the list of jobs and looking at how many people have different jobs which are the jobs that are safe from displacement ? Even if a class of jobs is not completely eliminated could demand be severely reduced ? The Bureau of Labor has jobs by occupation. There was a shift from 2007 to 2011 but most of that was from the recession.

21.4 million jobs in the USA for office administration and support. (New business systems that require fewer people. Web 2.0 companies only need a handful of people or one person to do what took hundreds only a few years ago). (down 2 million from 2007)

13.6 million jobs in the USA for sales and related work. (Automation and new sales processes) (down 700,000 from 2007)

11.2 million jobs in food preparation and serving. (Improved frozen meals, more elaborate food vending machines) (down less than 100,000 from 2007)

8.4 million jobs in production. (Automation and process re-engineering, shifts of jobs to other places - jobs still done by people but they are other people, better additive manufacturing and printable electronics and components) (down 1.7 million from 2007)

9.6 million jobs in transportation and material moving. (more local production : high rise farming, rapid prototyping and manufacturing systems) (down 1 million from 2007)

8.4 million jobs in education, training and library. (online learning like Udacity, Khan Academy, MIT recordings of the best professors.) (up 100,000 from 2007)

7.5 million healthcare practitioners and technical. (Biomarker tracking with cheap devices to catch and treat diseases early or in the developing stages. Keep people healthier and avoiding the need for more costly and people intensive intervention). (up 600,000 from 2007)

5.0 million jobs in construction and extraction (pre-fab buildings and panels). (down 1.7 million from 2007)

6.2 million Management. Re-engineering to flatten organizations and take out layers of management. Web 2.0'ing a business. Reinvent it where a lot fewer people are needed. (up 200,000 from 2007)

5.0 million Installation, Maintenance, and Repair. Redesign things where the quality is better and it does not break or does not need service or is simple to install. (down 400,000 from 2007)



Self Service Kiosks and self Checkout

Kiosks are vending machines with a Graphical user interface.

It is estimated that self-service kiosk transactions will be worth more than $775 billion this year, and is expected to hit $1.3 trillion in 2013. The number of self-service kiosks in the United States and Canada is 1.2 million, according to research by Rockville, MD-based Summit Research Associates.

There is a potential of eight million vending machines in the US and a world market of thirty million vending machines.

Self Service devices are growing at 15% per year.
Retail Banking Research estimated the number of self-checkout machines in the U.S. will grow to nearly 192,000 in 2011, more than tripling the 59,000 that were in use in 2007, when the recession started.

Financial Kiosks and ATMs
Financial kiosks and ATMs are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 9 percent to include more than 186,000 financial kiosks and more than 2.4 million ATMs by 2013, according to a report by NextGen Research. Next-generation ATMs capable of accepting envelope-free cash and check deposits will drive the market for the next five years and beyond.


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