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June 15, 2012

Canada tracking to 6.2 million barrels per day and one major BC gas field could double natural gas production

1. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers has an updated oil forecast.

The new forecast has an increase of 800,000 barrels per day over last years forecast for 2025

The US is heading to over 10 million barrels per day of crude oil by 2020 because of shale oil and tight oil in North Dakota and Texas.

Russia looks likely to maintain over 10 to 11 million barrels per day for many decades with the oil in its Bazhenov formation and deep water oil.

Iraq could get production up to 6 to 10 million barrels per day in the 2018-2022 timeframe and maintain that level of production for many decades.





Alberta and Saskatchewan both have oilsand oil. (a lot more oilsand in Alberta). Below is their conventional oil.


2. Apache, the second largest U.S.independent oil and natural gas producer by market value, said the tests suggest it has 48 trillion cubic feet of marketable gas within its Liard Basin properties.
By way of comparison, all companies active in the Horn River Basin, one of three other major shale gas basins that are in B.C., have marketable gas of 78 trillion cubic feet, giving one company alone a natural gas find that is twothirds the size of the entire Horn Basin.

Apache estimates the Liard to contain 210 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 48 trillion cubic feet of which is "sales gas" for production and sale.

That compares with 5.3 trillion cubic feet produced by western Canada in 2011, and a BP PLC report released this week showing proved gas reserves in the United States totaling 300 trillion cubic feet and a total of 70 trillion cubic feet in Canada.

3. Peters & Co. reported in a note to investors, total in situ production averaged about 750,000 barrels per day in April, with the Suncor Firebag project averaging about 100,000 bpd, up from 80,000 bpd earlier this year.

Devon’s Jackfish Phase 2 averaged 53,500 bpd in April, up 6,000 bpd from its year-end rate, Peters noted. Canadian Natural Resource’s Primrose project averaged about 90,000 bpd, which compares to the first quarter average of 79,000 bpd.

All use steam-assisted gravity drainage technology, where steam is injected through a horizontal well to melt the sticky bitumen and allow it to be produced from a parallel well.

The other popular in situ technique is cyclic steam stimulation or CSS, which accounted for about 264,000 bpd in April.

“The increases in SAGD production in recent years has been quite rapid, as production averaged about 125,000 bpd in 2007, is currently averaging just below 500,000 bpd and, based on our forecast, will average about 550,000 bpd in 2013 and over 600,000 bpd in 2014,” Peters reported.

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