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April 20, 2012

Revisiting the Potential Nuclear Century

This is a review of estimates for a nuclear energy century.

1000 reactors for 2030 would be the high-2030 scenario from the World Nuclear Association (WNA) - Nuclear Century. The WNA lists nuclear generation targets by country.

China is talking to Turkey and Vietnam about building nuclear reactors

Since October 2008, two reactors total 2000 MWe have been planned at Phuoc Dinh in the southern Ninh Thuan province. A further 2000 MWe was planned at Vinh Hai nearby, followed by a further 6000 MWe by 2030. Both locations are based particularly on geological suitability on the coast. A high demand scenario would give 8000 MWe in 2025 and 15,000 MWe (10% of total) in 2030 at up to eight sites in five provinces. Four more units would be added to the first two sites, then six more at three or four central sites in provinces of Quang Ngai (Duc Thang or Duc Chanh), Binh Dinh (Hoai My) and Phu Yen (Xuan Phuong). These, plus Ky Xuan in the northern Ha Tinh province, remained proposals in mid 2011.

Turkey looks likely to have more than 8 nuclear reactors






The high case from WNA with only China increased. Uprating and cheaper exports and new factory mass produced reactors could increase these numbers even more.

Programmes*   2008   2030 High        2030 Expectation
                    Capacity in GWe   After Fukushima  
Argentina       1    11               3   
Armenia         0     1               1
Belarus         0     5               5
Belgium         6     8               6
Brazil          2    30               30
Bulgaria        2     7               2
Canada         13    30               30
China           9   300               300
Czech Republic        7               4
Finland         3     7               5
France         63    75               75
Germany        20    50               0
Hungary         2     5               5       
India           4    70               70
Iran            0    10               10
Japan          48    70               40
Lithuania/ Latvia/ Estonia  
                1     6               2
Mexico          1    20               5           
Netherlands     1     5               5
Pakistan        0    20               10
Romania         1    10               10
Russia         22    80               80
Slovakia        2     4               4
Slovenia        1     1               1
South Africa    2    25               10
South Korea     18   50               50
Spain           7    20               7
Sweden          9    15               15
Switzerland     3     6               1 
Ukraine        13    30               21
United Kingdom 11    30               30 
United States  99   180               120
SUBTOTAL      367  1188               957
 
Nations Planning Nuclear 
          2008   2030  High   
  Capacity in GWe  
Egypt           0    10               2
Gulf Coop       0    50               50
Indonesia       0     6               6
Kazakhstan      0     2               2
Nigeria         0    15               15
Poland          0    10               10
Turkey          0    15               15
Vietnam         0    15               15 
SUBTOTAL        0   123               115
*Gulf Cooperation Council members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates 
 
Potential Entrants   
               2008   2030 High   
            Capacity in GWe 
Albania         0     2               0
Algeria         0     5               0   
Australia       0    10               0
Austria         0     3               0  
Bangladesh      0    10               0 
Chile           0     5               0   
Croatia         0     2               0
Denmark         0     2               0 
Greece          0     2               0 
Iraq            0     2               0 
Ireland         0     5               0 
Israel          0     3               1 
Italy           0    20               10 
Jordan          0     7               1 
Kenya           0     2               0 
Malaysia/Singapore 0 10               0    
Morocco         0     5               0 
New Zealand     0     2               0
Norway          0     2               0
Philippines     0    10               0 
Portugal        0     5               0 
Serbia          0     2               0    
Syria           0     3               0 
Thailand        0    10               0 
Venezuela       0     3               0 
Other           0     4               0   
SUBTOTAL        0   140               12   
WORLD TOTAL   367  1450               1084



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