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January 10, 2012

New Hampshire Republican Primary Mitt Romney first, Ron Paul second and Huntsman third

With 95% of precincts reporting, it appears that Ron Paul is a solid second behind Mitt Romney

Romney     40%        7 Delegates 
Paul       23%        3 Delegates
Huntsman   17%        2 Delegates    
Gingrich   10%        
Santorum    9%        
Perry       1%

Under new Republican Party rules, all states that hold their contests before April must award their delegates proportionally rather than by winner-take-all. There are 12 delegates in New Hampshire, so Ron Paul will get 3 delegates. Romney will get 5.

A big win by Ron Paul in a caucus state would net him more delegates than a narrow victory in a big (and expensive) state such as Florida. As long as Paul is able to stay competitive in the big states, the thinking goes, his wins in caucus states could help him catch up to Romney.

some big questions after this primary -

Will the anti-Romney vote settle on Ron Paul ?
Or after South Carolina and Florida will the anti-Romney be Gingrich ?
Will Romney sweep through the rest ?

Santorum appears to not have momentum in the polling for upcoming states and has a weak organization.

Gingrich and Santorum will have a test in South Carolina, where each is trying to get a second place.

Gingrich is far stronger in Florida polling.

Perry and Huntsman still look like they are not getting anywhere. Huntsman has a little bit of life with a third place here. Huntsman is moving his numbers slightly in South Carolina.

On the Democratic side there was about a 15% write in vote which was likely for Hillary Clinton.





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