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January 27, 2012

China’s Provincial GDP Figures in 2011 and forecasts for 2012 through 2015

China Briefing - 2011 Provincial GDP figures

Wikipedia GDP per capita by province in China.

Jiangsu Province’s GDP grew 9.2 percent to RMB4.8 trillion (US$759 billion) in 2011, according to the provincial government’s report. Jiangsu’s GDP per capita reached US$9,500.

In 2012, Jiangsu (80 million), Zhejiang (56 million), Inner Mongolia (25 million) should be over US$10,000 GDP per capita. They will join Shanghai (23 million), Beijing (20 million), and Tianjin (13 million) with GDP per capita over US$10,000.

Liaoning (44 million) and Guangdong (105 million) should get over the US$10,000 per capita level in 2013. Shandong (96 million) and Fujian (37 million) should get over the US$10,000 per capita level in 2013 or 2014.

Getting over US$12,000 per person in 2010 dollars is the level where a country is believed to exceeded the level of a middle income trap.

Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are all over the US$12,000 per capita level as of the end of 2011. The other provinces should clear the US$12,000 per capita levels 1 to 2 years after they clear the US$10,000 per capita levels.

By 2015, China should have provinces with a combined population of about 500 million with per capita GDP over US$12,000. I am projecting all of China to have a per capita GDP of about $9000-10000 in 2010 US dollars in 2015






NBF last projection of China's GDP


Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP   


2011     47.2   9.2        6.3     7.5        7.8       15.2
2012     53     8.0        6.1     8.7        9.0       15.9
2013     59     8.5        5.8    10.2       10.5       16.5
2014     66     8.5        5.5    11.9       12.2       17.2
2015     73     8.5        5.2    14         14.3       18
2016     80     8          4.9    16.3       16.7       18.8
2017     88     8          4.6    19.1       19.5       19.6
2018     97     8          4.3    22.6       23         20.5
2019    107     8          4.1    26         26.5       21.5
2020    115     7.5        3.9    29.6       30         22.4
2021    125     7.5        3.7    33.7       34.2       23.4
2022    135     7.5        3.5    38.5       39         24.5
2023    145     7          3.3    44         44.5       25.6
2024    157     7          3.1    50.6       51         26.7
2025    170     7          3      56.5       57         27.9
2026    183     7          3      61         61.5       29.2
2027    198     7          3      66         66.4       30.5
2028    214     7          3      71.2       72         31.9
2029    235     7          3      78.4       79         33.3
2030    259     7          3      86.4       87         34.8

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