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November 10, 2011

World and Libya Oil Production

1. International Energy Agency = Global oil supply rose by 1.0 million barrels per day to 89.3 mb/d in October from September, driven by recovering non-OPEC output A yearly comparison shows similar growth, with OPEC supplies well above year-ago levels. Non-OPEC supply growth averages 0.1 mb/d in 2011 but rebounds to 1.1 mb/d in 2012, with strong gains from the Americas.




Forecast global oil demand is revised down by 70 kb/d for 2011 and by 20 kb/d for 2012, with lower-than-expected 3Q11 readings in the US, China and Japan. Gasoil continues to provide the greatest impetus for demand growth. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.2 mb/d in 2011 (+0.9 mb/d y-o-y) and reach 90.5 mb/d (+1.3 mb/d) in 2012.

2. WSJ - Libya is already producing 600,000 barrels a day of oil and the restart of another giant Libyan oil field well ahead of forecasts will help push this total close to 800,000 barrels by the end of the year

As recently as September, the IEA was predicting Libya would produce no more than 0.4 million barrels a day by the end of this year. That milestone was passed in October and the agency now expects Libya to produce 0.7 million barrels a day by the end of this year. It also increased its forecast for first-quarter Libyan production by 60%, to 0.8 million barrels a day


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