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October 17, 2011

China's GDP for the 3rd quarter was 9.1 percet

China's GDP expanded 9.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of the year, the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2009. China's strong retail sales growth suggests that there is a shift to greater domestic demand. The slow moderation in GDP is indicating a softening of growth instead of a collapse.

The growth rate was down from 9.5 percent in the second quarter of this year and 9.7 percent in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday.

According to preliminary statistics, the country's GDP reached 32.07 trillion yuan (5.01 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first nine months, up 9.4 percent year-on-year.

China prior GDP update for the second quarter of 2011




Industrial value-added output rose 13.8 percent year-on-year in September, up from the 13.5 percent annual growth in August. Fixed asset investment rose 24.9 percent year-on-year in the first nine months, compared with a 25-percent gain in the January-August period.

In September, the country's retail sales grew 17.7 percent from a year earlier after a 17-percent increase in August.

A forecast that I had from earlier in the year expected more currency appreciation for China by the end of 2011.



Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP   


2011     44     9.6        6       7.3        7.5       15.2
2012     49     9.2        5.7     8.6        8.9       15.9
2013     55     8.5        5.4    10.1       10.4       16.5
2014     61     8.5        5.1    11.8       12.1       17.2
2015     67     8.5        4.9    13.7       14.0       18
2016     73     8          4.6    15.8       16.1       18.8
2017     80     8          4.4    18.2       18.5       19.6
2018     88     8          4.2    21         21.4       20.5
2019     96     8          4.0    24         24         21.5
2020    105     7.5        3.8    28         28         22.4
2021    114     7.5        3.6    32         32         23.4
2022    123     7.5        3.4    36         36         24.5
2023    133     7          3.2    41         42         25.6
2024    144     7          3.1    47         47         26.7
2025    155     7          3      53         53         27.9
2026    167     7          3      56         56         29.2
2027    179     7          3      60         60         30.5
2028    193     7          3      64         65         31.9
2029    207     7          3      69         70         33.3
2030    223     7          3      74         75         34.8


Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Inflation USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP   

2011    43      9.6     6      6.2      6.9     7.1     15.2
2012    50      9.2     6      6.0      8.4     8.6     15.9
2013    58      8.5     5      5.7      10.1    10.4    16.5
2014    66      8.5     4      5.5      12.0    12.3    17.2
2015    74      8.5     4      5.3      14.1    14.4    18
2016    84      8       4      5.1      16.6    16.9    18.8
2017    94      8       4      4.9      19.4    19.7    19.6
2018   106      8       4      4.7      23      23      20.5
2019   119      8       4      4.5      27      27      21.5
2020   134      7       3      4.3      31      31      22.4
2021   147      7       3      4.1      36      36      23.4
2022   162      7       3      4.0      41      41      24.5
2023   179      7       3      3.8      47      47      25.6
2024   197      7       3      3.6      54      54      26.7
2025   217      4       3      3.5      62      62      27.9
2026   233      4       3      3.4      69      70      29.2
2027   249      4       3      3.2      77      78      30.5
2028   267      4       3      3.1      86      87      31.9
2029   286      4       3      3        95      96      33.3
2030   306      4       3      3       102     103      34.8



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