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October 27, 2011

The Bullish case for the Economic Future of the United States

The Telegraph UK lays out the bullish economic case for the United States

Nextbigfuture already covered the two main items listed in the telegraph article.

1. US crude oil production could increase by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day each year through 2015 driven by North Dakota oil, Eagle Ford in Texas and Utica Shale. The US could have 8-10 million bpd of crude oil production in 2015 and 11-15 million bpd of crude + natural gas liquids + biofuel/ethanol.

US oil imports have shifted from 61-63% imports to 47% imports. 3.8 million barrels per day of lower oil imports but 1.8 million barrels per day is from lower oil usage. A lot of the lower oil usage is because of the higher prices for oil and a weaker economy.

Net imports of oil and fossil fuel liquids have decreased to 8.0 to 9.5 million barrels per day in 2010 and 2011 (average about 9.0 million barrel per day). From 2005 to 2007, the net imported crude oil and petroleum products was 12.0 to 13.3 million barrels per day (average about 12.8 million barrels per day)

The total petroleum supplied to the United States from 2005 to 2007 was 19.7 to 21.4 million barrels per day (average about 20.8 million barrels per day). In 2010 and 2011 the petroleum used has been 18.1 to 20.2 million barrels per day (average petroleum used has been 19.0 million barrels per day).

In 2015, US oil and petroleum imports could be 2-5 million barrels per day and by 2020 the US could get to the point where it would not be a net importer of oil.




2. Within the next five years, the United States is expected to experience a manufacturing renaissance as the wage gap with China shrinks and certain U.S. states become some of the cheapest locations for manufacturing in the developed world, according to a new analysis by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

With Chinese wages rising at about 17 percent per year and the value of the yuan continuing to increase, the gap between U.S. and Chinese wages is narrowing rapidly. Meanwhile, flexible work rules and a host of government incentives are making many states—including Mississippi, South Carolina, and Alabama—increasingly competitive as low-cost bases for supplying the U.S. market.

China - US manufacturing cost components from 2008

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