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September 16, 2011

World Nuclear generation Update for first half of 2011 and part of third quarter

The International Energy Agency has an update for energy generation up to June 2011.

The OECD (Western Europe, north america, japan, south korea) nuclear generation was down 2.1% for the first half of the year and was down 7.5% for June, 2011 versus June 2010.



A problem for my world nuclear generation bets is that Japan has turned off a lot more reactors than the ones that were damaged in the earthquake and tsunami in March.

The Japan tsunami was March 11, 2011. In that month they still generated almost 20 TWH versus 22 TWH if everything was great. In April, 2011 Japan still generated 16.8 TWH. Japan turned off more of their reactors even ones that were not damaged for safety checks and other stress testing. 5 TWH for 9 months would have been 45 TWH of reduced generation instead it will be about 100 TWH for 2011.

Japan's August numbers show that they have shutoff even more reactors since June and are 60% per month below 2010 (down 12-13 TWH).





I write up that I had from June when there was generation information up to March still showed a possibility for my winning my world nuclear generation bet with Dittmar for 2011 March, 2011 had Japan at almost 20 TWH and a full month of outage of just the damaged reactors would have had Japan at 18-19 TWH through the end of the year.

Germany is also down 30% per month and will stay there with its permanent shutdowns.

Reviewing The Nuclear Generation Bet Series

Dittmar                   Brian                     Midpoint     Actual

2009   2575 TWhe            2600 TWhe               2587.5      2558
2010   2550 TWhe            2630                    2590        2630
2011   2550                 2650                    2600
2012   2550                 2700                    2625
2013   2525                 2750                    2637.5
2014   2250                 2800                    2525
2015   2250                 2900                    2575
2016   2250                 3200                    2725
2017   2250                 3500                    2875
2018   2250                 3800                    3025

There will be a lot of new nuclear reactors starting up in 2012 and 2013. 33 of the 65 reactors that are under construction should be completed. From 2013 onwards the world generation bets should be fine with new reactors and especially in 2014-2018 where Dittmar expected constrained uranium supplies to cause a 250 TWH drop.

The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan.

Brian Wang      Dittmar               Midpoint
2010   16500 tons      15000 tons            15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010
2011   18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons tracking to 19200+ tons

Uranium production volume of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 6 months of 2011 made up 9 148 tU, which is 9% higher in comparison with the same period of the previous year. In accordance with the stated plans, uranium production made by entities of NAC Kazatomprom JSC will reach 10 130 tU in the second half of 2011. {19278 tons of uranium projected)

Industries and New Technologies Vice Minister Berik Kamaliyev predicted October 12, 2010 at a cabinet session that Kazakhstan will mine 17,800 tonnes of uranium in 2010, according to newskaz.ru.

World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018

Uranium predictions
      Brian Wang  Dittmar            midpoint
2010  56000 tons  45,000 tons        50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 
2011  60000 tons  45,000             52,500 tons
2012  64000 tons  45,000             54,500 tons
2013  68000 tons  45,000             56,500 tons
2014  72000 tons  45,000             58,500 tons
2015  76000 tons  45,000             60,500 tons
2016  80000 tons  45,000             62,500 tons
2017  84000 tons  45,000             64,500 tons
2018  88000 tons  45,000             66,500 tons

2009 had Dittmar winning the generation bet and me winning world uranium bet
2010 I won all three bets. Generation, World Uranium and Kazakhstan uranium bet
2011 Dittmar will win generation bet (tsunami, german and Japanese response). I am expecting to win the world uranium and kazakhstan uranium bet.

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