The International Energy Agency has an update for energy generation up to June 2011.
The OECD (Western Europe, north america, japan, south korea) nuclear generation was down 2.1% for the first half of the year and was down 7.5% for June, 2011 versus June 2010.
A problem for my world nuclear generation bets is that Japan has turned off a lot more reactors than the ones that were damaged in the earthquake and tsunami in March.
The Japan tsunami was March 11, 2011. In that month they still generated almost 20 TWH versus 22 TWH if everything was great. In April, 2011 Japan still generated 16.8 TWH. Japan turned off more of their reactors even ones that were not damaged for safety checks and other stress testing. 5 TWH for 9 months would have been 45 TWH of reduced generation instead it will be about 100 TWH for 2011.
I write up that I had from June when there was generation information up to March still showed a possibility for my winning my world nuclear generation bet with Dittmar for 2011 March, 2011 had Japan at almost 20 TWH and a full month of outage of just the damaged reactors would have had Japan at 18-19 TWH through the end of the year.
Germany is also down 30% per month and will stay there with its permanent shutdowns.
Reviewing The Nuclear Generation Bet Series
Dittmar Brian Midpoint Actual 2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5 2558 2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590 2630 2011 2550 2650 2600 2012 2550 2700 2625 2013 2525 2750 2637.5 2014 2250 2800 2525 2015 2250 2900 2575 2016 2250 3200 2725 2017 2250 3500 2875 2018 2250 3800 3025
There will be a lot of new nuclear reactors starting up in 2012 and 2013. 33 of the 65 reactors that are under construction should be completed. From 2013 onwards the world generation bets should be fine with new reactors and especially in 2014-2018 where Dittmar expected constrained uranium supplies to cause a 250 TWH drop.
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010 2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons tracking to 19200+ tons
Uranium production volume of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 6 months of 2011 made up 9 148 tU, which is 9% higher in comparison with the same period of the previous year. In accordance with the stated plans, uranium production made by entities of NAC Kazatomprom JSC will reach 10 130 tU in the second half of 2011. {19278 tons of uranium projected)
Industries and New Technologies Vice Minister Berik Kamaliyev predicted October 12, 2010 at a cabinet session that Kazakhstan will mine 17,800 tonnes of uranium in 2010, according to newskaz.ru.
World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint 2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons 2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons 2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons 2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
2009 had Dittmar winning the generation bet and me winning world uranium bet
2010 I won all three bets. Generation, World Uranium and Kazakhstan uranium bet
2011 Dittmar will win generation bet (tsunami, german and Japanese response). I am expecting to win the world uranium and kazakhstan uranium bet.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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