2. The IEA predicted a slower resumption of output in Libya than the producer group. The North African nation will likely restore output to 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day by the end of this year, from zero last month, according to the IEA. OPEC forecast that Libya can reach 1 million barrels a day within six months and full capacity within 18 months.>
The IEA reduced its estimate for 2012 consumption by 400,000 barrels a day, and for 2011 by 200,000 a day. Worldwide demand will rise by 1.2 percent to 89.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.6 percent to 90.7 million next year.
OPEC predicts it will need to provide 29.67 million barrels a day in the first quarter of next year and 28.44 million in the second. Its 12 members have pumped an average 29.88 million a day in July and August. With an additional 1 million a day from Libya in the first quarter of 2012, group output would be about 30.88 million, exceeding demand by 1.2 million barrels a day.
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