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September 23, 2011

Cities and Megacities of 2030, 2050 and 2100

In 1800, just 3% of the world lived in urban areas. Today that figure has passed 50% and by 2050 it will likely reach 70%, with cities like New York, Mexico City, Moscow and Shanghai growing exponentially.

The 2011 annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative had a topic of the rapidly urbanizing world population and the megacities

Year  Urban Pop   World Pop  World Urbanization
1800       3 million    978 million   3%
1900     220 million   1650 million  13%
1950     732 million   2520 million  29%
2005    3200 million   6500 million  49%
2030e   4900 million   8300 million  60%
2050e   6500 million   9200 million  70%
2100e   8000 million  10000 million  80%   

Rapid Urbanization and Mega Cities: The Need for Spatial Information Management (91 pages)


China now has 120 cities with a population of more than one million, seeing its urban population skyrocket from 18 percent to 50 percent of the country. With 660 million already living in cities, China expects another 240 million to join them within the next two decades.




The benefit of the megacity is manifold. It generates more consumption, driving the economy; it helps modernize infrastructure; it leaves rural areas with more natural resources; it helps balance the regional dispersement of population.

Big cities are the consequence of modernity, Carlos Slim (world's richest man) suggested — and modernity dictates that density is a more efficient way to provide new technology.

“What makes a big city possible is that the population all has [access to] public services,” he said, offering highway construction, water, electricity, telecommunications and healthcare as examples. “It’s important that all these services be profitable.”

The megacity need not be a one-way street, devouring all resources in its path. Density can help enrich the greater region, and foster the development of satellite cities whose residents enjoy the services of their larger peer without the tradeoffs that extreme density requires.

“There has to be overarching, overall strategy of planning,” Jeichi said. “Around the big cities, we need to build up the small and medium sized cities. So instead of having one megacity, you have a cluster.”

China’s 90,000 kilometers of railways, 70,000 kilometers of highways and 7,000 kilometers of high-speed rail track have only encouraged residents to move away from the country’s largest cities.

“You have seen a mushrooming of small and medium sized cities, away from megacities, he said.

Of the 120 cities in China whose population is more than 1 million, a host of new culture facilities have emerged, Jeichi said. New museums, theaters, even children’s libraries have been an unexpected benefit of having so many people live so close together.

Jeichi said cities must exchange ideas so as not to repeat each others’ errors and more quickly benefit from new technology.

“I believe that cities represent the future,” he said. “Better city, better life — we need to do more in that regard.”

Ubiñas said it makes good economic sense.

“Cities are cheaper. It is much less expensive to deliver government services, to deliver rights…if people are closer together.”

Demographia
World Urban Areas (World Agglomerations) (April 2011, 100 pages)


422 cities populations of over 1 million
205 cities populations of over 2 million
65 cities populations of over 5 million
27 cities populations of over 10 million


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