Based on my research, I predict another short, sharp contraction in late 2011 of about 1 percent, with a rebound in spring 2012. This research looks at the average impact of the previous 19 uncertainty shocks to predict the impact of future shocks. Typically, these lead to reductions of growth of about 2 percent immediately after the shock, with a recovery about six months later once uncertainty subsides.
If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks