This looks like it will be an easy win for one of three bets that I made involving Kazakhstan uranium production, world uranium production and world nuclear power generation.
The Kazakhstan uranium production bet was made at the Oildrum
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010 2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons tracking to 19250+ tons
World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions
Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint 2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons 2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons 2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons 2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
Cameco is tracking to 21.9 million pounds of uranium production in 2011 This will be 500 tons less than 2010.
Australia's Olympic dam should be back to full production at 4000 tons for 2011. This will be 1800 tons more than in 2010.
World uranium production for 2011 appear likely to increase by at least 3000 tons.
The two uranium bets look quite safe.
Dittmar Brian Midpoint Actual 2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5 2558 2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590 2630 2011 2550 2650 2600 ?? 2012 2550 2700 2625 2013 2525 2750 2637.5 2014 2250 2800 2525 2015 2250 2900 2575 2016 2250 3200 2725 2017 2250 3500 2875 2018 2250 3800 3025
IEA nuclear generation is 1% less than in 2010 for the OECD. China has added a new reactor and Russia will start one in October and Indian nuclear generation will be up. Japanese and German nuclear generation will be down a lot for the second half of the year.
The world nuclear generation bet will be very close and is dependent upon what happens operationally in the United States, France, Russia, Ukraine and other major nuclear generating countries.
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