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August 25, 2011

Kazakhstan uranium production tracking to 19278 tons in 2011

Uranium production volume of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 6 months of 2011 made up 9 148 tU, which is 9% higher in comparison with the same period of the previous year. In accordance with the stated plans, uranium production made by entities of NAC Kazatomprom JSC will reach 10 130 tU in the second half of 2011.

This looks like it will be an easy win for one of three bets that I made involving Kazakhstan uranium production, world uranium production and world nuclear power generation.

The Kazakhstan uranium production bet was made at the Oildrum



The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.

Brian Wang              Dittmar               Midpoint
2010   16500 tons      15000 tons            15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010
2011   18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons tracking to 19250+ tons


World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018

Uranium predictions
      Brian Wang  Dittmar            midpoint
2010  56000 tons  45,000 tons        50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 
2011  60000 tons  45,000             52,500 tons
2012  64000 tons  45,000             54,500 tons
2013  68000 tons  45,000             56,500 tons
2014  72000 tons  45,000             58,500 tons
2015  76000 tons  45,000             60,500 tons
2016  80000 tons  45,000             62,500 tons
2017  84000 tons  45,000             64,500 tons
2018  88000 tons  45,000             66,500 tons

Cameco is tracking to 21.9 million pounds of uranium production in 2011 This will be 500 tons less than 2010.

Australia's Olympic dam should be back to full production at 4000 tons for 2011. This will be 1800 tons more than in 2010.

World uranium production for 2011 appear likely to increase by at least 3000 tons.

The two uranium bets look quite safe.

Dittmar                     Brian                   Midpoint    Actual

2009   2575 TWhe            2600 TWhe               2587.5      2558
2010   2550 TWhe            2630                    2590        2630
2011   2550                 2650                    2600        ??
2012   2550                 2700                    2625
2013   2525                 2750                    2637.5
2014   2250                 2800                    2525
2015   2250                 2900                    2575
2016   2250                 3200                    2725
2017   2250                 3500                    2875
2018   2250                 3800                    3025

IEA nuclear generation is 1% less than in 2010 for the OECD. China has added a new reactor and Russia will start one in October and Indian nuclear generation will be up. Japanese and German nuclear generation will be down a lot for the second half of the year.

The world nuclear generation bet will be very close and is dependent upon what happens operationally in the United States, France, Russia, Ukraine and other major nuclear generating countries.

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