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July 26, 2011

China's GDP update

China's Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 9.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2011, tapering off slightly from the 9.7-percent growth posted in the first quarter and 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to preliminary statistics, the country's GDP reached 20.45 trillion yuan (3.175 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first six months, up 9.6 percent year-on-year.

China's yuan is currently at 6.44 to one US dollar. It was as high as 6.43 intraday. China's currency has moved up as the US debt crisis has remained unresolved.

China had US$3.175 trillion in the first half of the year.
6% inflation in the second half of the year and 9.2% GDP growth would mean 22.03 trillion yuan in the second half of 2011. This would be a total of 42.5 trillion yuan of GDP for 2011.

If the currency strengthened to 6.1 yuan per USD. Then China's GDP for 2011 would be 6.97 trillion. Including Hong Kong would put China's GDP 7.2 trillion in 2011.



A forecast that I had from earlier in the year expected more currency appreciation for China by the end of 2011.



Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP   


2011     44     9.6        6       7.3        7.5       15.2
2012     49     9.2        5.7     8.6        8.9       15.9
2013     55     8.5        5.4    10.1       10.4       16.5
2014     61     8.5        5.1    11.8       12.1       17.2
2015     67     8.5        4.9    13.7       14.0       18
2016     73     8          4.6    15.8       16.1       18.8
2017     80     8          4.4    18.2       18.5       19.6
2018     88     8          4.2    21         21.4       20.5
2019     96     8          4.0    24         24         21.5
2020    105     7.5        3.8    28         28         22.4
2021    114     7.5        3.6    32         32         23.4
2022    123     7.5        3.4    36         36         24.5
2023    133     7          3.2    41         42         25.6
2024    144     7          3.1    47         47         26.7
2025    155     7          3      53         53         27.9
2026    167     7          3      56         56         29.2
2027    179     7          3      60         60         30.5
2028    193     7          3      64         65         31.9
2029    207     7          3      69         70         33.3
2030    223     7          3      74         75         34.8


Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Inflation USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP   

2011    43      9.6     6      6.2      6.9     7.1     15.2
2012    50      9.2     6      6.0      8.4     8.6     15.9
2013    58      8.5     5      5.7      10.1    10.4    16.5
2014    66      8.5     4      5.5      12.0    12.3    17.2
2015    74      8.5     4      5.3      14.1    14.4    18
2016    84      8       4      5.1      16.6    16.9    18.8
2017    94      8       4      4.9      19.4    19.7    19.6
2018   106      8       4      4.7      23      23      20.5
2019   119      8       4      4.5      27      27      21.5
2020   134      7       3      4.3      31      31      22.4
2021   147      7       3      4.1      36      36      23.4
2022   162      7       3      4.0      41      41      24.5
2023   179      7       3      3.8      47      47      25.6
2024   197      7       3      3.6      54      54      26.7
2025   217      4       3      3.5      62      62      27.9
2026   233      4       3      3.4      69      70      29.2
2027   249      4       3      3.2      77      78      30.5
2028   267      4       3      3.1      86      87      31.9
2029   286      4       3      3        95      96      33.3
2030   306      4       3      3       102     103      34.8

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