Figures compiled by WNA show that worldwide uranium production grew from 50,772 tonnes in 2009 to 53,663 tonnes in 2010, the highest level since the early 1990s.
Kazakhstan was the largest producing country, with output of 17,803 tonnes in 2010, a 27% increase from the 14,020 tonnes it produced in 2009.
Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium "civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years" and "the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable". Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar
1. World Uranium production (official win for 2010)
2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018 (official win for 2010)
3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan (official win for 2010)
I reviewed these bets at the end of 2010 when it was clear but unofficial that I had won all three bets for 2010
Michael Dittmar's incorrect articles were also featured in an MIT Technology Review blog about arxiv articles.
Dittmar also was cited in an article in the Economist (Green View - Fuelling fears : A uranium shortage could derail plans to go nuclear to cut carbon emissions)
Reviewing The Nuclear Generation Bet Series
Dittmar won the nuclear power generation bet for 2009. He said 2575 TWH and I said 2600 TWhe
Dittmar Brian Midpoint Actual 2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5 2558 2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590 2630 2011 2550 2650 2600 2012 2550 2700 2625 2013 2525 2750 2637.5 2014 2250 2800 2525 2015 2250 2900 2575 2016 2250 3200 2725 2017 2250 3500 2875 2018 2250 3800 3025
Global nuclear electricity generation in 2010 totaled 2630 TWh, according to figures from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), representing a 2.8% increase from the 2558 TWh generated in 2009 and taking it close to a peak value in 2006. The energy availability factor of the plants operating in 2010 was 81%, up from 79.4% in 2009.
New reactors amounting to 3722 MWe net boosted the 2010 figure, including Russia's Rostov 2, India's Rajasthan 6, China's Ling Ao 3 and Qinshan II-3, and South Korea's Shin Kori 1.
Just one small reactor - France's 130 MWe Phenix prototype fast reactor - was officially shut down in 2010, although the unit actually ceased power generation in 2009.
Construction of 16 new reactors, with a combined capacity of 15,846 MWe net, started in 2010, according to the IAEA. Ten of these are in China (Ningde units 3 and 4, Taishan 2, Changjiang 1 and 2, Haiyang 2, Fangchenggang 1 and 2, Yangjiang 3 and Fuqing 3). In Russia, the construction of two new units also began (Leningrad II unit 2 and Rostov 4), while two more started construction in India (Kakrapar 3 and 4). In Brazil, work also started on building the Angra 3 unit. Meanwhile, the stalled construction of Japan's 1383 MWe Ohma unit also got back underway in 2010 after re-engineering work for enhanced earthquake protection.
Assuming about five years for construction it can be expected that reactors will be coming online around 2012 at double today's rate of five per year, with this to rise to one per month around 2015.
Kaiga 4 (202 MW(e), PHWR, India) - first grid connection on 19 January
Chasnupp 2 (300 MW(e), PWR, Pakistan) - first grid connection on 14 March
Lingao 4 (1000 MW(e), PWR, China) - first grid connection on 3 May
Kudankulam-1 PWR India 1000 MWe late 2011
BUSHEHR 1 PWR Iran 1000 MWE ---- soon
Shin-Kori-2 PWR South Korea 1000 MWe 2011/08/01
Kusankulam-2 PWR India 1000 MWe late 2011 or in 2012
2009 2575 TWh 2600 2587.5 2558
2010 2550 TWh 2630 2590 2630
2011 2550 2650 2600
2012 2550 2700 2625
2013 2525 2750 2637.5
About 15 TWh ahead of 2010 as of the end of March 2011
-40 TWH Japan and Germany for the rest of 2011
15-20TWh from new reactors
So I am thinking 2610-2630 TWh in spite of the Japan, Germany shutdowns in 2011.
Less margin for me. France and the US cannot have any major operational issues.
2012 A lot of reactors start completing and my margin gets comfortable again.
By 2014-2015, the numbers will show that Dittmar was laughably wrong.
There will be 5-7 new nuclear reactors that will be completed and starting generation in 2011. There will also be about 17 reactors completed in 2012. So 24 nuclear reactors completing over 2011 and 2012 (about 20 GWe which would add about 150 TWH per year).
Reactors in Japan and Germany have been shutdown due to the earthquake or to concerns related to the earthquake in Japan. Thirteen units in Japan - with a combined capacity of 11,545 MWe (23.6% of total nuclear capacity) - have shut down as a direct result of the 11 March earthquake and tsunami. Units 1 to 4 at Fukushima Daiichi have been irreparably damaged and, together with the undamaged units 5 and 6, are to be decommissioned. Units 4 and 5 at the Hamaoka plant have been shut down at the government's request and are unlikely to restart for at least several months, while nine reactors - units 1 and 3 of the Onagawa plant, unit 2 of the Tokai plant, all four units at the Fukushima Daini plant - are in cold shutdown and it is not yet known when these will be allowed to resume operation. The accident resulted in Germany imposing a three-month moratorium on the operation of its oldest reactors. This was followed by a decision to permanently shut down the seven units that began operating in or before 1980, plus one reactor that has been in long-term shutdown. Between them these account for up to 55 TWh per year - enough to take 2% off 2010's generation figure. This will have a 45 TWh impact in 2011.
So far 2011 figures up to the end of March show nuclear generation is ahead of 2010 (in spite of the earthquake in Japan.
Japan had a 15% drop in March, 2011 versus March 2010. The Earthquake was on March 11, 2011. So Japan will see about a 20% drop in nuclear generation for 2011. Instead of generating 284 TWh (2010), Japan will generate about 230 TWh in 2011.
Uranium production volume in Kazakhstan for the 1st quarter of 2010 was 4,060 tU.
KazAtomProm reported Kazakh output during the first quarter of 2011 was 4777.4 tonnes, 7.3% above its planned production of 4724.4 tonnes and up some 24% on the same period last year.
Canada's Cameco regained its position as the world's largest uranium producing company, with output of 8758 tonnes in 2010, up from 8000 tonnes in 2009. The company's production represented 16% of world uranium output in 2010. France's Areva, which was the leading producer in 2009 with production of 8623 tonnes, reported output of 8319 tonnes in 2010, putting it in second place. It was closely followed by KazAtomProm, which produced 8116 tonnes in 2010, up from 7467 tonnes in 2009.
Cameco's McArthur River/Key Lake mine in Canada remained the world's largest uranium-producing mine in 2010, with output of 7654 tonnes, up from 7339 tonnes in 2009. Although its output dropped from 4444 tonnes in 2009 to 3216 tonnes in 2010, Energy Resources of Australia's (ERA's) Ranger mine in Australia maintained its second position. Rio Tinto's Rössing mine in Namibia was the third-largest producing mine with production of 3077 tonnes in 2010, down from 3520 tonnes in 2009.
The Kazakhstan uranium bet were as follows
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010 2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons tracking to 19500+ tons
Industries and New Technologies Vice Minister Berik Kamaliyev predicted October 12, 2010 at a cabinet session that Kazakhstan will mine 17,800 tonnes of uranium in 2010, according to newskaz.ru.
World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint 2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes 2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons 2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons 2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons 2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
Although conventional underground and open-pit mining techniques remained the main method for uranium extraction, with 53% of output coming from via these techniques, the use of in-situ leach (ISL) technology has gained popularity. In 2009, some 36% of uranium was extracted using ISL technology, while in 2010 this figure jumped to 41%. In-situ leaching is preferred in Kazakhstan.
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