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May 03, 2011

Forecasts of China and US GDP to 2030

Economist Arvind Subramanian who has calculated that China passed the USA in PPP in 2010, expects that by 2030 the Chinese economy to be twice as large as that of the US (in purchasing power parity dollars).

China’s lead will not be confined to gross domestic product. China is already the world’s largest exporter of goods. By 2030, China’s trade volume will be twice that of the US. And, of course, China is also a net creditor to the US.

The combination of economic size, trade and creditor status will confer on China a kind of economic dominance that the US enjoyed for about five to six decades after World War II and that Britain enjoyed at the peak of the empire in the late nineteenth century.

This will matter in two important ways. America’s ability to influence China will be seriously diminished, which is already evident in China’s unwillingness to change its exchange rate policy despite US urging. And the open trading and financial system that the US fashioned after World War II will be increasingly China’s to sustain or undermine.

The new numbers, the underlying realities they represent and the future they portend must serve as a wake-up call for America to get its fiscal house in order and quickly find new sources of economic dynamism if it is not to cede its pre-eminence to a rising, perhaps already risen, China.

Nextbigfuture update of China / US GDP forecasts on exchange rate basis

Updating the forecast of China and US GDP to 2030

Adjusted US GDP for 2011-2016 to match IMF forecast for the US. After that have growth of 4.5% for GDP and a little bit of inflation.






Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP   


2011     44     9.6        6       7.3        7.5       15.2
2012     49     9.2        5.7     8.6        8.9       15.9
2013     55     8.5        5.4    10.1       10.4       16.5
2014     61     8.5        5.1    11.8       12.1       17.2
2015     67     8.5        4.9    13.7       14.0       18
2016     73     8          4.6    15.8       16.1       18.8
2017     80     8          4.4    18.2       18.5       19.6
2018     88     8          4.2    21         21.4       20.5
2019     96     8          4.0    24         24         21.5
2020    105     7.5        3.8    28         28         22.4
2021    114     7.5        3.6    32         32         23.4
2022    123     7.5        3.4    36         36         24.5
2023    133     7          3.2    41         42         25.6
2024    144     7          3.1    47         47         26.7
2025    155     7          3      53         53         27.9
2026    167     7          3      56         56         29.2
2027    179     7          3      60         60         30.5
2028    193     7          3      64         65         31.9
2029    207     7          3      69         70         33.3
2030    223     7          3      74         75         34.8


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