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May 02, 2011

Canada election results show Conservatives will have a majority government


Most pre-election projections were for Canada to elect another Conservative minority government. However, a Conservative Majority was elected.

UPDATE: The Bloc Quebecois is no longer an official political party in Canada's parliament. The younger people in Quebec are less interested in separation. This could mean the passing of Quebec separatism as a significant risk. The political configuration from this election will remain for close to the maximum of 5 years, because with a majority the Conservatives will have an advantage in calling an early election. It will take at least two elections for the Bloc Quebecois or the Liberals to rebuild to where they were and they may not be able to rebuild. Anti-conservative party people may decide to firm up the NDP into true competition to the Conservatives. It was mainly Liberal vs Conservative for a few decades before the Bloc, Reform and previously limited surges of the NDP.

There will not be any fast union of the anti-conservatives. Liberals will try to rebuild. Having any partial revival of the Liberals will probably hand the next couple of elections to the Conservatives. Just when there were two center right parties (Conservatives and Reform - gave elections to the Liberals.)

UPDATE - 7:48 PST May 2, 2011
#
Leading/Elected 155 needed for majority
Conservatives 165
NDP 103
Liberals 31
Bloc 4
Other 1

Conservative government projected. NDP projected as opposition
by Ron Nurwisah, National Post edited by Ron Nurwisah, National Post at 7:48 PM

The Conservatives appeared poised to emerge the victor in Atlantic Canada — a small but mighty 32-seat region long held by the Liberals, who looked set to lose upward of a third of their caucus.

Early results from Quebec, Ontario, the prairies and Alberta show the Tories at upward of 130 seats, the NDP in second place with an unprecedented 60 seats, the Liberals trailing in third with 26 seats, and the Bloc bringing up the rear with five seats.

The Conservatives need 155 or more seats for a majority. Pre-election polling indicates that is possible but unlikely. However, a Conservative majority was the result.



The Conservatives are projected to take 36.4% of the vote and 143 seats, the same number of seats they had when the government fell. However, considering that two of the three vacancies were safe Conservative seats, we can even say that this is a loss of two for the party.

The New Democrats are projected to take 27.3% of the vote and win 78 seats, an increase of 42 over their pre-election standing. It is almost double their previous best under Ed Broadbent.

The Liberals are projected to win only 22.8% of the vote and elect 60 MPs, a reduction of 17 since the election was called.

The Bloc Québécois is projected to win 28.1% of the vote in Quebec and 6.7% nationally, enough to give them 27 seats in the province. That is a loss of 20 for Gilles Duceppe, and the first time the Bloc would be reduced to a minority of seats in Quebec.

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