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April 29, 2011

Canada election riding projections from May 1 showed a minority Conservative government but actual results Conservative Majority

Trendlines has a riding by riding projection for the Monday, May 2, 2011 Canadian election

UPDATE: Election night: 7:44PM PST.
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Leading/Elected 155 needed for majority
Conservatives 165
NDP 105
Liberals 35
Bloc 2
Other 1

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY PROJECTED. NDP projected as opposition.
by Ron Nurwisah, National Post at 5/3/2011 9:03 PM

The most recent pre-election projection (May 1st) out of 308 ridings (155 needed for majority)
147 for Conservatives
78 NDP
55 Liberal
27 Bloq Quebec

Nanos Research's latest nightly tracking poll released Friday shows the Conservatives have 36.4% support, with the NDP at 31.2% and the Liberals trailing with 22%. The gap between the Conservatives and NDP narrowed to five points from six points in the previous day's polling. This is a dramatic shift from March 30, when the pollster found the NDP had just 15.9% support against 39.1% for the Conservatives and 32.7% for the Liberals.

NDP that is taking from Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. Both Liberals and the Bloc are collapsing. Conservatives are mostly holding steady. However, it is only a one or two poll surge. So the polling could be off, since the NDP has never been close to being this strong historically. We will know for sure on Monday.

The NDP platform is no longer flat out socialist (like in decades past) and tries to be pro-small business and is committed to a balanced budget.

We’ll give small businesses a 2 percentage points tax cut, and bring in targeted tax credits for companies that hire here in Canada.

We will maintain Canada’s commitment to balance the federal budget within the next 4 years, as per the Department of Finance projections



the NDP has promised not to interfere with Bank of Canada rate decisions. This reassurance was needed because of a prior statement that they would like to see the Bank of Canada hold off on hiking interest rates.

Canadian election scenarios

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

The Conservatives need to win an additional 12 seats to get a majority that could govern without needing support from other parties. Normally a party needs support of around 40 percent of the electorate to win a majority, but if the left-of-center vote is split between other parties, they could win a majority with a smaller share of the vote than that.

Likelihood: possible, if the NDP surge splits the left-of center vote

CONSERVATIVE MINORITY GOVERNMENT

If the Conservatives win more seats than any other party, they will get the first chance of forming a government, but may have to make concessions to win support from at least one other party and stay in power as a minority government. The party has so far pledged to reintroduce the budget it presented in March before the government fell. All the opposition parties had promised to vote against that budget, so an identical document is unlikely to pass. But all bets are off if the Conservatives are only a few seats from a majority, as the opposition might not dare unite to bring them down for fear of a public outcry.

Likelihood: possible, but it's unclear if it would be stable

POSSIBLE NEW ELECTION

If the opposition brings a new Conservative minority government down at the first opportunity, Harper has said he will seek a new election. But that decision would be up to Governor General David Johnston, and many constitutional scholars say he would probably first ask another parties to try to form a government before calling what would be Canada's fifth election in seven years.

Likelihood: very unlikely

NDP-LED MINORITY GOVERNMENT

If the Conservatives can't form a successful minority government, Johnston would turn to the party with the second highest number of seats to see if it could form a government. Under current poll numbers that could be the NDP, so Canada's new prime minister would be Jack Layton, a man who has come from behind to capture the imagination of a good section of the population. He would need support from other parties, probably the Liberals and possibly also from the separatist Bloc Quebecois to stay in power.

Likelihood: possible, provided support for the NDP stays strong

LIBERAL-LED MINORITY GOVERNMENT

If the Liberals end up with more seats than the NDP, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff could be given the chance to form a minority government. He would also need support from other parties to stay in power.

Likelihood: unlikely, given current poll numbers

NDP MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

It's still a long-shot option, but if the Liberal vote collapses completely, and support for the Conservatives also sags badly, the NDP has a remote chance of getting more than 154 seats, handing them a majority in Parliament.

Likelihood: very unlikely

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