March 19, 2011

New Purchasing Power GDP analysis, China number 1 in 2012 and India became number 3 in 2010

University of Pennsylvania purchasing power parity tables are available (Penn World Tables 7.0)

China's PPP was adjusted upwards by 20% and India's by 15%.

PPP estimates for 2009 for the largest countries

China is estimated at 11.3 to 11.68 trillion.
India is estimated at 4.15 trillion.
China has grown by about 20% from 2009 and will be 13.5 to 14 trillion at the end of 2011. China will become number one in 2012 with about 15 trillion.
India has grown by about 16% from 2009 and will be nearly 5 trillion at the end of 2011. So India moved ahead of Japan on purchasing power parity in 2010 according to the new Penn World Tables 7.0 data.

Japan was estimated at 4.17 trillion GDP PPP in 2009. (was 3rd largest, but falls to 4th behind India in 2010)
The USA was estimated at 14.0 trillion GDP PPP in 2009. (still ranked number one but falls behind China in 2012)
Germany was 2.96 trillion in 2009 (5th largest)
UK was 2.29 trillion in 2009 (6th largest)
France was 2.21 trillion in 2009 (7th largest)
Russia was 2.199 trillion in 2009 (8th largest)

Russia has faster gdp growth (3.9% in 2010) and would be passing France and the UK in 2010.

Brazil was $1.83 trillion in 2009 and is growing at about 5% per year. They should pass France and UK before 2015.

The Penn World Tables are indicating that the trend will be for China's currency to head to an exchange rate of 3.0 yuan to one US dollar from the current level of 6.55 yuan to one US dollar.

India's GDP growth for 2010 was about 8.5%



ppp        Purchasing Power Parity over GDP in national currency units per US$
tcgdp      Total Real Gross Domestic Product, current price milions, G-K method
cgdp       Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita, current price G-K method
cgdp2      Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita, current price average GEKS-CPDW 
cda2       Domestic Absorption per capita, current price average GEKS-CPDW 
cc         Consumption Share of Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita, current price
cg         Government Share of Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita, current price
ci         Investment Share of Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita, current price
p          Price Level of Gross Domestic Product G-K method
p2         Price Level of Gross Domestic Product average of  GEKS-CPDW 
pc         Price Level of Consumption
pg         Price Level of Government
pi         Price Level of Investment
openc      Openness in Current Prices
cgnp       Ratio of GNP to GDP

Per capita GDP has China at about $9000 in 2009. It will be $11,000 at the end of 2011. Per capita GDP (PPP) would put China at about the level of Mexico and Turkey.

India was at $4300-4500 PPP per capita in 2009. India should be at $4900-5400 at the end of 2011.


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