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March 02, 2011

China predicted to be 100 trillion RMB in 2020

A senior official with the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that China's economy will be 100 trillion RMB in 2020

Chen Dongqi, vice president of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research, a think tank under the NDRC, said that China's GDP in 2020 will be equivalent to that of the U.S. in the same year, and its per-capita GDP will equivalent to one fifth of the U.S.', up from one tenth at present.

Chen added that China will not see a lost decade as in Japan and a middle income trap as in Latin America partly because it has a large population that will generate robust demand.

Over the last decade, China's annual economic growth was about 10%. Chen estimated that China's economy will expand by at a rate of about 9% during the period from 2011 to 2015.



Dongqi's projection pretty closely maps to my most recent projection of 104 trillion RMB in 2020

New Projected GDP by NBF:

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 

2010N 39.5         10.5    6.59       6.1      6.3   14.6   2    
2011 44             9.6    6.2        7.2       7.4   14.9   3.5
2012 49             8.5    5.9        8.5       8.7   15.2   4.2
2013 55             8.5    5.6        9.8      10.1   15.5   4.2
2014 60             8.5    5.3       11.4      11.7   15.7   2.7
2015 66             8.5    5.0       13.2      13.5   16     2.7
2016 73             8      4.8       15.3      15.6   16.4   2.7 
2017 80             8      4.6       17.6      17.9   16.8   2.7 Past USA
2018 87             8      4.3       20        20     17.2   3
2019 95             8      4.1       23        23     17.6   3
2020 104            7.5    3.9       27        27     18.1   3
2021 113            7.5    3.7       30        31     18.7   3
2022 122            7.5    3.5       35        35     19.2   3
2023 133            7      3.4       40        40     19.8   3
2024 143            7      3.2       45        45     20.4   3
2025 154            7      3.0       51        51     21.0   3
2026 166            7      3         55        56     21.6   3
2027 178            7      3         59        60     22.3   3
2028 192            7      3         64        64     23.0   3
2029 206            7      3         69        69     23.6   3 
2030 222            7      3         74        74     24.4   3

There is an adjustment for the inflation differential of 5% which falls to 3% per year.

There will be a business and economic data coming from the 2010 chinese census. This will be reported in mid-2011. I would expect about 3-10% adjustment/restatement of GDP to come from the new data. I expect the adjustment will shift official estimates higher.

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