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January 04, 2011

IEA World Oil Supply Report from December 2010

The December 10, 2010 IEA world oil supply report is here (71 pages)

Global oil product demand is revised up by 0.13 Mbbl/d to 87.4 Mbbl/d in 2010 (actual), and projected to rise 0.26 Mbbl/d to 88.8 Mbbl/d in 2011, on stronger data from OECD North America and non-OECD Asia. Growth in 2010 (up 2.5 Mbbl/d year-over-year) was largely driven by buoyant gasoil (diesel & jet fuel) demand, notably in 3Q10, but expansion should slow to an increase of 1.3 Mbbl/d in 2011 as temporarily supporting factors fade.

Global oil supply rose 0.4 Mbbl/d to 88.1 Mbbl/d in November, largely due to increased non-OPEC production, notably from Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil. Non-OPEC supply now averages 52.8 Mbbl/d (59.9%) in 2010 and is projected at 53.4 Mbbl/d (over 60%) in 2011, representing growth of 1.1 Mbbl/d and 0.6 Mbbl/d, respectively. OPEC NGLs (natural gas liquids) output is seen averaging 5.3 Mbbl/d this year and 5.8 Mbbl/d in 2011.




Forecast to 2015

Non-OPEC supply is projected to grow through 2015, reaching 54.0 Mbbl/d. However, conventional crude oil (increasing in Brazil, Colombia, the Caspian and Russia) generates only around 10% of expected non-OPEC growth (0.255 Mbbl/d for 2009-2015), with most of the rise instead attributed to biofuels (up 0.8 Mbbl/d for 2009-2015, to reach 2.4 Mbbl/d), oil sands, NGLs and other liquids.

The expected profile for OPEC crude production capacity remains similar to that in June, with a net increase of 2.1 Mbbl/d to 36.9 Mbbl/d now expected, compared with an equivalent gain of 1.9 Mbbl/d six months ago. While difficulties remain, the outlook for both Iraq and Nigeria has improved marginally. But among OPEC and non-OPEC producers alike, local engineering content contract clauses are causing bottlenecks and delays. All told, Iraq (increasing 1.1 Mbbl/d), the UAE (increasing 0.5 Mbbl/d), Angola (increasing 0.4 Mbbl/d), Saudi Arabia (increasing 0.4 Mbbl/d) and Libya (increasing 0.2 Mbbl/d) generate the bulk of capacity growth. Meanwhile, expectations for Iran have soured, with capacity expected to fall from 3.9 Mbbl/d to 3.1 Mbbl/d by 2015 as reinforced sanctions delay new projects and accelerate field decline.


Specific Country Production up to Nov 2010





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