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January 13, 2011

Free Voice Communication dominant prediction will get close enough to be borderline correct in 2011

One of my 156 predictions from 2006 was free voice communication will become dominant in the 2007-2011 date range

Skypejournal - Skype grew to 20% of international minutes in 2010

Nearly all regular calls are domestic. In the 99% range. So while this does affect international divisions of phone companies, they are usually pretty small parts of a national phone company’s sales. Skype users spend about half of all their time calling across national borders.

It’s a big deal anyway. On the chart, you see Skype calling grow faster and faster even as other calling grows slower and slower. The conservative trendlines show Skype beating 140 in 2011, and other telcos just 425, giving Skype 25% share by year end.

Skype to skype calling is free, but skype to a regular phone has charges.



Skype recently set a new record with 27 million simultaneous users.

Voice over IP will see corporate adoption increase from 33% now to 79% of all companies by 2013


Skype increase in long distance minutes is more than double the growth of regular phone companies.

According to an FCC report, as of December 2009 there were 26 million interconnected VoIP subscribers alongside the 127 million traditional switched-access phone lines in service.

Definition of dominant -
1. Exercising the most influence or control.
2. Most prominent, as in position; ascendant.

VOIP is clearly ascendant in 2010 and 2011.
It will have the most growth in minutes and percentage growth.
Free VOIP will fall short of 50% of total usage for international calls and VOIP subscriber count will still be below traditional switched phone access.

There is also the technicality baked into the original prediction that even if I used free skype, I am still paying for internet access. However, as the predictor I know I was not counting that aspect of payment.

I will probably only be able to claim the growth win. I will probably end up calling the prediction close but wrong and not precise enough when written.

New predictions
It looks like 2013-2018 for VOIP to pass regular phone service for total international calling minutes.

It looks like 2015-2021 for VOIP to have more subscribers than traditional switched phone service.

It looks like 2012-2013 for more than 50% of all companies to have at least signed up for VOIP.


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