January 04, 2011

China yuan exchange ends 2010 at 6.59

China's yuan ended 2010 at 6.59 to one US dollar

China preliminary reporting is 9.9% GDP growth in 2010 and a projection of maintaining 10% growth in 2011. Other analysts are forecasting a slowdown to 8-9% GDP growth in 2011.



Previous Projected GDP by NBF:

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth USD/CNY China GDP China+HK US GDP  US Growth 

2010e 38           10.5    6.65       5.71      5.3   14.6   2   
2011e 42            9.6    6.49       6.47      6.7   14.9   3.5       
2012 45             9      6          7.5       7.7   15.2   4.2
2013 49             9      5.6        8.7       8.9   15.5   4.2
2014 53             9      5.1       10.4      10.7   15.7   2.7
2015 58             9      4.7       12.3      12.6   16     2.7
2016 63             9      4.4       14.3      14.7   16.4   2.7       
2017 68             8      4         17.0      17.3   16.8   2.7 Past USA
2018 74             8      3.7       19.9      20.2   17.2   3
2019 80             8      3.4       23.5      23.8   17.6   3
2020 86             8      3         28.6      28.9   18.1   3
2021 93             8      3         30.9      31.2   18.7   3
2022 100            8      3         33.4      33.7   19.2   3
2023 108            8      3         36.0      36.3   19.8   3
2024 117            8      3         38.9      39.2   20.4   3
2025 126            8      3         42.0      42.3   21.0   3
2026 136            7      3         45.4      45.7   21.6   3
2027 146            7      3         48.6      48.9   22.3   3
2028 156            7      3         52.0      52.3   23.0   3
2029 167            7      3         55.6      55.9   23.6   3
2030 179            7      3         59.5      59.8   24.4   3

So far the China GDP estimate for 2010 is basically correct with slightly lower GDP growth offset by the slightly stronger yuan.

There will be a business and economic data coming from the 2010 chinese census. This will be reported in mid-2011. I would expect about 3-10% adjustment/restatement of GDP to come from the new data. I expect the adjustment will shift official estimates higher.

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